Flossie Recon discussion

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CrazyC83
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Flossie Recon discussion

#1 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 12, 2007 12:08 pm

Feel free to lock this if this is not necessary, but I decided to create this recon discussion page.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ for a decoder
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Mon Aug 13, 2007 12:49 pm, edited 11 times in total.
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#2 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 12, 2007 12:17 pm

Still a few hours away from Flossie I would estimate.
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Re: Flossie Recon discussion

#3 Postby clfenwi » Sun Aug 12, 2007 12:39 pm

Yeah, doing the math, it looks like the plane is traveling at about 300 knots and was 1450 nm or so away from the center of Flossie. From that one would estimate that it would be entering the storm at approx 2200Z / 6 PM EDT.
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#4 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 12, 2007 12:41 pm

Looks like two planes heading out.
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#5 Postby WindRunner » Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:59 pm

Is anyone getting the obs through the Ohio State text pages? They don't seem to be carrying the URPN15 KBIX header . . . and the NHC page is too intensive to frequently refresh . . .
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#6 Postby Coredesat » Sun Aug 12, 2007 4:01 pm

Try this.

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ur ... .kbix..txt
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#7 Postby WindRunner » Sun Aug 12, 2007 4:08 pm

Ahh yes, the ever-present pub/data/raw/ directory . . . didn't even think of that. Thanks!
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#8 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 12, 2007 4:36 pm

Starting to descend...
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#9 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 12, 2007 5:00 pm

Now at operational altitude.
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Re: Flossie Recon discussion

#10 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 12, 2007 5:08 pm

57 knots highest so far.
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#11 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 12, 2007 5:30 pm

Last pass of the eye had 957mb and 121 kt peak winds (surface 109 kt). Vortex shortly?
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#12 Postby WindRunner » Sun Aug 12, 2007 5:37 pm

With that wind shift, I would hope so . . .
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#13 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 12, 2007 5:44 pm

Vortex estimated 961mb with a 50kt wind at the time, so probably 957mb is correct. Backs up 121kt at flight level, so it is a high-end Cat 3 if this stands.
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#14 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Aug 12, 2007 5:47 pm

the 50KT is a peak surface estimate... not the surface winds in the eye

it is the single most useless piece of the vortex message... need the dropsonde data to determine if 961 is correct
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Re: Flossie Recon discussion=Vortex 961mb, Flight level 121 kt

#15 Postby baitism » Sun Aug 12, 2007 5:56 pm

I just noticed this on CNN
http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/americas/08/09/tropical.weather.ap/index.html

oops.
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Re: Flossie Recon discussion=Vortex 961mb, Flight level 121 kt

#16 Postby RL3AO » Sun Aug 12, 2007 5:57 pm




And? It says August 9th.
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Re:

#17 Postby pojo » Sun Aug 12, 2007 6:00 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Looks like two planes heading out.

there are several aircraft at Travis... they are hitting the storm on the way over to Hickam AFB.
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#18 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 12, 2007 6:58 pm

Lowest pressure so far found: 955.6mb, although the winds peaked at 111 kt in that pass.
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Re: Flossie Recon discussion = 956mb, Vortex message shortly

#19 Postby miamicanes177 » Sun Aug 12, 2007 7:01 pm

Winds so far do not support category 4 intensity. It's likely a strong cat 3 now with winds of 125mph.
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Re: Flossie Recon discussion = 956mb, Vortex message shortly

#20 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 12, 2007 7:02 pm

miamicanes177 wrote:Winds so far do not support category 4 intensity. It's likely a strong cat 3 now with winds of 125mph.


Probably, since the pressure does not support Cat 4 either. 125mph sounds correct.
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