Simple 90L Poll Part Deux

[chadtm80]

TD at 11pm? Yes Or No

000
ABNT20 KNHC 122121
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN AUG 12 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AT IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AT
ABOUT 10 MPH.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS LOCATED
OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY
WINDS HAVE KEPT THE SYSTEM FROM BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD
RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS THE LOW MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN

[RL3AO]

I said no at 5, I say yes at 11. Convection is starting to burst on the east side and is very close to bursting over the LLC.

[Jinkers]

Still say no, but maybe tomorrow

[caneseddy]

Not tonight, but 11:00 am at the earliest tomorrow, if it persists

[JonathanBelles]

I say yes at this point to a TD at 11 because it will not take much.

[cheezyWXguy]

I said yes to 11, but if it does not, im sure it will at 5am or 11 am tomorrow, if convection continues to expand over the LLC

[Beam]

I voted no -- however, I do think it has a shot at being declared a TD at 11. I just think it's more likely to be tomorrow sometime.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Although i think it is now..Id say no..Just because

[Coredesat]

No.

[chadtm80]

Get your votes in!!!

[Aquawind]

Negative.. They will wait for visable at this point.

[swimaster20]

I don't think so since the NHC usually likes to be conservative. I think they'll wait for the visible imagery and upgrade probably at 11 tom morning.

[vacanechaser]

i say no... maybe in the morning.. convection needs to continue for sometime...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[GulfHills]

I'm voting No.

[Tropics Guy]

No, but will be at 5:00am

[stormchazer]

11am Tomorrow!

[wx247]

No!!! Given the lack of visible sat. images to confirm there will likely not be an upgrade.

[ciclonson]

I vote no at 11:00 pm and don't think it's a lock for tomorrow either.

[chadtm80]

Some more info to consider..

Code: Select all

12/2345 UTC    12.6N   26.6W    T1.0/1.5              90L

[RL3AO]

I think this easily matches the definition of a depression, but I am less confident that it will be upgraded before 5am.