Global Models for 90L

[Extremeweatherguy]

This is now the 5th GFS run in a row to bring this system into the western GOM.

[miamicanes177]

Viva La Rasa!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I still can't believe that TRof doesn't pick it up. We'll see in later runs.

[Steve]

= Brownsville/Matamoras destruction if the 18z was to verify.

So that makes about 10 targets so far with 2 weeks to go. We'll all get hit by the GFS before it's all said and done. So far I can recall fish, south florida, north carolina, the panhandle, New Orleans, Houston, Mexico and Brownsville.

We're all gonna die.



Steve

[ROCK]

Texas/Mexico border yet again... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_264l.gif

Not much change at all in that run......

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/

click in TC guidance and early track. Gives you a whole plethora of models in the short term. Updates when models run.

[skysummit]

:eek: I still can't believe that TRof doesn't pick it up. We'll see in later runs.

Yea...kind of odd. It'll likely change over the next few days. Heck...it may show it curving up the east coast again.

[Wx_Warrior]

Looks about the same (Brownsville) as yesterday but still 2 close 4 comfort...Time and speculation will tell.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

:eek: I still can't believe that TRof doesn't pick it up. We'll see in later runs.

Yea...kind of odd. It'll likely change over the next few days. Heck...it may show it curving up the east coast again.

Looking at that it would have to. We'll see on future runs. 0Z GFS will be out at 11-12 PM Central tonight.

[Extremeweatherguy]

If this 5 run trend continues for 5 or 10 or 15 more runs, then I might begin to feel a bit nervous. Consistancy is the key. ATM though, 264 hours is still way too far out to make me worried.

[ronjon]

Yes, GFS is developing some consistency - but is it correct? All I can conclude at this point is that it is more and more likely to be a GOM threat - no US east coast storm. I know its a matter of timing in these models but that weakness that develops along the central Gulf Coast at 192 hrs is disturbing. It will be interesting to see if the storm reacts to that in future runs.

[windstorm99]

5 runs in 200+ hrs from the GFS which the skill level of the model drops big time that far out.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Is there something wrong with the NCEP page? all of the sudden it now only goes out to hour 12 on the 18z run.

[skysummit]

Is there something wrong with the NCEP page? all of the sudden it now only goes out to hour 12 on the 18z run.

Are they running it again? It's to 30 hours now.

[Wx_Warrior]

Ronjon...post the 216 again so I can take a peek. Went back and all the links were dead.

[cycloneye]

They are running it again.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Landfall

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_252l.gif

[CourierPR]

To say that this system is a GoM threat seems, at this point, to be premature. I may be wrong, but the movement seems to be north of due west. If this winds up north of Hispaniola, things could get interesting.

[vaffie]

They are running it again.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

Sorry, but what do you mean--they're running it again? They're repeating the 18Z model run because there was a problem with it?

[storms in NC]

:eek: I still can't believe that TRof doesn't pick it up. We'll see in later runs.

Yea...kind of odd. It'll likely change over the next few days. Heck...it may show it curving up the east coast again.

Looking at that it would have to. We'll see on future runs. 0Z GFS will be out at 11-12 PM Central tonight.

WHAT YOU TALKING ABOUT KFDM ?

[Extremeweatherguy]

well the was odd. Looks like the NCEP page is back to normal now though...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml