Invest 90L:East Atlantic,Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

[cycloneye]

If they find an undisputed closed circulation, they can issue a Special Advisory at any time...

They had done that in past years.

[Kennethb]

For something that far out, I doubt it. They would only do it for something closer towards land.

[cheezyWXguy]

If they find an undisputed closed circulation, they can issue a Special Advisory at any time...

Based on quikscat and visible imagery from earlier today, Im pretty sure there is a closed low out there. I think what theyre waiting for is for the convection to persist over the center. Right now it is expanding to the east, as easterly shear gradually lessens, and as it continues thru the approaching D-max, convection should continue to increase and persist, long enough for the NHC to classify it as a TD

[brunota2003]

For something that far out, I doubt it. They would only do it for something closer towards land.

Indeed, Special Advisories, if I remember correctly, are strictly issued for systems that are forming close to land or a major jump or change in track (ie Charley). If the system is in the middle Atlantic, they'll just wait for the next regular advisory time. I say the system looks very healthy compared to the rest and it is time to stock up on soda (hate coffee...bleh) as there appears to be sleepless nights coming up. I'll guess TD at 11 pm.

[fci]

Don't see a need to classify this as a TD until they are certain that it is.

So what if they are a day late or so?

As long as this is so far out there is no harm in being entirely certain.

[Beam]

Don't see a need to classify this as a TD until they are certain that it is.

So what if they are a day late or so?

As long as this is so far out there is no harm in being entirely certain.

Agreed. It's important to remember that the instant this thing is declared a cyclone, BAM! Media frenzy. You can't blame them for sitting on this one a bit and seeing what happens before they draw too much attention to this thing.

[Ola]

From the last image, you can see curved cold cloud tops. I think this is a TD already

[wzrgirl1]

my local news station couldn't wait to jump on it already

[RL3AO]

If the first track goes due west...watch out for oil futures tomorrow.

[chadtm80]

Coming into view now.......................................................................................

[clfenwi]

That convective burst may be enough... I have seen TD's declared in the Eastern Atlantic at 11pm(later what was Emily and Frances both were). I can't remember any at 5am.

I researched the matter of 5 am TD classifications last year and what I found is still current; the last 5 am classification was STS Nicole in October 2004. Based solely off past history, an 11 PM classification would be a bit more likely; 11 AM or 5 PM much more likely.

[Beam]

If the first track goes due west...watch out for oil futures tomorrow.

Puts a whole new spin on the term "invest", no?

Thank god it's finally moving into GOES territory.

[vaffie]

Quikscat of eastern Atlantic just came out--showing 90L beautifully, with 20-30 knot winds on all sides of a very well-defined circulation center. With the steady increase in convection this afternoon and these wind estimates, upgrade to depression tonight seems almost certain now, and possibly tropical storm sometime tomorrow.
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/oce ... atl_22.png

[Brent]

I think that will get it to TD status.

[Weatherfreak14]

Most definatly a 95% a depresson by 11pm if not then by 11am tommrow for sure.

[RL3AO]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Soild depression as far as I can tell. It is also strengthing slowly.

[windstorm99]

From the Charleston, SC afternoon discussion...

"The tropics still bear watching next weekend to see what becomes of
the tropical wave now S of the Cape Verde Islands. Latest consensus
indicates that a tropical system could be somewhere near
Hispaniola...the southern Bahamas or the northern Caribbean next
weekend...while deep ridging prevails over the southeast states. Please
refer to the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center and the National
Hurricane Center for more specific information. "....

[Beach0612]

Well I guess being in Key West I better keep an eye on this thing

[vaffie]

Soild depression as far as I can tell. It is also strengthing slowly.

I agree, though I think that now that a convection core has formed, intensification will start to accelerate quickly. The next three days may see rapid intensification. I doubt it would reach Category 4 or 5, but it still could become a major by the time it reaches the 60-70W, but if it does indeed ever enter the western Caribbean/southern Gulf of Mexico, all bets are off about the limit its intensity could reach.