Invest 90L:East Atlantic,Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

[Aquawind]

Hmm voted no on the poll for tonight and a wait for visible. However looking at the recent explosion and the possibility a LCC is under it or very near the deepest convection. They might pull the trigger before visible if the trend continues. As they say..The convection is expanding in aerial coverage and intensity.

[Tropics Guy]

Think the NHC will pull the trigger at 11:00 tonite., much more convection & organization since the last TWO.

[marcane_1973]

Been gone today. Sup with 90L??? Is it moving too fast or something???

NHC says this could become a depression with the slightest bit of further organization. As of 5:30pm.

Wow!!! Sooo.....The NOGAPS could end be the real winner here after all. Why do you think that a lot of these waves have been moving so fast this year? I thought that wasn't supposed to be an issue. Don't forget tonight ladies and Gents to watch the meteor shower.

[wxman57]

Hmm voted no on the poll for tonight and a wait for visible. However looking at the recent explosion and the possibility a LCC is under it or very near the deepest convection. They might pull the trigger before visible if the trend continues. As they say..The convection is expanding in aerial coverage and intensity.

Again, look at where the 00Z models were initialized - 27.1W. The center of the convection is near 29W, about 120 miles to the west. Might as well just go to sleep and wait for visible imagery tomorrow. I'm pretty sure the NHC will do nothing with it until then. One other clue to look for is when the NHC changes the header on the model data to read "Four" vs. "Invest". It said "Invest" at 00Z.

[hurricanefloyd5]

I dont know about ya'll but from want I can see myself im sure the center is under the convestion!!!!

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 5#controls

Well since you are so sure, perhaps you would like to share with us exactly how your SURE.. Edumacate us if you will We are all eager for you to learn us

It has been organizing snece the 5:30 TWO came out and it the structer is better looking and there is nothing as of yet that would weaken it and before you yall say something about the dust and dry air there is nothing metion in the TWO about this system being affected by either!!! The system looks great tonight and i will eat crow if im wrong tonight and i would be very very surprized if this isn't a TD tonight!!!

[miamicanes177]

Think the NHC will pull the trigger at 11:00 tonite., much more convection & organization since the last TWO.

If they don't call this a tropical depression tonight then I can't wait to hear what they say in the TWO. I sure hope the people in the Lesser Antilles are aware of this and the NHC does not wait too long. They need to stop beating around the bush and do the right thing.

[RL3AO]

I think it is clearly a depression, but chances are it won't be called by the NHC until 5am or 11am.

[chadtm80]

I dont know about ya'll but from want I can see myself im sure the center is under the convestion!!!!

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 5#controls

Well since you are so sure, perhaps you would like to share with us exactly how your SURE.. Edumacate us if you will We are all eager for you to learn us

It has been organizing snece the 5:30 TWO came out and it the structer is better looking and there is nothing as of yet that would weaken it and before you yall say something about the dust and dry air there is nothing metion in the TWO about this system being affected by either!!! The system looks great tonight and i will eat crow if im wrong tonight and i would be very very surprized if this isn't a TD tonight!!!

Still waiting for you to answer hoow your sure the LLC is under the convestion (convection )

[Blown Away]

Think the NHC will pull the trigger at 11:00 tonite., much more convection & organization since the last TWO.

I'm going w/ that to, I think they have be gun shy a little because of so many fizzles recently. Convection is good, not sure if it is wrapping a little more around the LLC. TD by 11pm or 5am, IMO. SFL local news is going to go crazy, they have been waiting all season to scare the hell out people, the fact that it is 2500+ miles away won't stop them.

[Scorpion]

Think the NHC will pull the trigger at 11:00 tonite., much more convection & organization since the last TWO.

If they don't call this a tropical depression tonight then I can't wait to hear what they say in the TWO. I sure hope the people in the Lesser Antilles are aware of this and the NHC does not wait too long. They need to stop beating around the bush and do the right thing.

No, they will name it a depression when they feel like it is one.

[hurricanefloyd5]

I can clearly see it under it!!!


http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 5#controls

[RL3AO]

I can clearly see it under it!!!

It wasn't under it 5 hours ago, what makes you certain it is now?

[fci]

I don't see what the rush is to call 90L a Tropical Depression.

The designation will not suddenly alert the Leeward Islands.

In my opinion, the right thing is to wait until they are absolutely certain that it is a Tropical Depression. Being this far out gives them the time to wait. If this were close to any land area, there would be more of an urgency to do so.

That is at least my opinion.

[Aquawind]

Hmm voted no on the poll for tonight and a wait for visible. However looking at the recent explosion and the possibility a LCC is under it or very near the deepest convection. They might pull the trigger before visible if the trend continues. As they say..The convection is expanding in aerial coverage and intensity.

Again, look at where the 00Z models were initialized - 27.1W. The center of the convection is near 29W, about 120 miles to the west. Might as well just go to sleep and wait for visible imagery tomorrow. I'm pretty sure the NHC will do nothing with it until then. One other clue to look for is when the NHC changes the header on the model data to read "Four" vs. "Invest". It said "Invest" at 00Z.

LOL. I hear ya.. I was more than pretty sure myself as well on waiting for the visable. It will be called soon either way at this rate the llc will be consumed in convection..

[chadtm80]

I can clearly see it under it!!!


http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 5#controls

Your just not getting it.. You can not see "it" in that image. Sigh....

[Noles2006]

I can clearly see it under it!!!


http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 5#controls

Sorry... but no, you can't.

[Scorpion]

I can clearly see it under it!!!


http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 5#controls

You are obviously watching the wrong area. The spinning red convection is not the center.

[fci]

Think the NHC will pull the trigger at 11:00 tonite., much more convection & organization since the last TWO.

I'm going w/ that to, I think they have be gun shy a little because of so many fizzles recently. Convection is good, not sure if it is wrapping a little more around the LLC. TD by 11pm or 5am, IMO. SFL local news is going to go crazy, they have been waiting all season to scare the hell out people, the fact that it is 2500+ miles away won't stop them.

As much as I would like to ridicule you for making this assumption about the SFL local news and tell you that you are being absurd. I can't.

You are right.
I am sure that they are chomping at the bit to make a news story about a system over 3000 miles away and start scaring people.
Glad that the models are not what they were 2 days ago or they would already be interviewing Art Johnson in Palm Beach County asking if they still planned to start school on the 22nd!!!!

[TheShrimper]

I am dang sure the people in the islands are aware of what is going on. And they are most likely a little better prepared....they do not care if is is classified at 11:00, 5AM or at 11 AM tomorrow. Another alarmist..God help us.

[MiamiensisWx]

Wow. If I judge by the tone of the posts, I can see many people are itching to bash the TPC when it doesn't receive a TD classification at 11 p.m. EDT. Don't set yourselves on a path toward disappointment. I think it deserves TD status, but there have been no clear-cut signs (i.e. unquestionable LLC position beneath convection). Satellite presentations (in terms of organization) have deceived many people. They are playing a safe move - we should wait for the visible imagery and other data. I do not see any good reasons to disagree with the NHC. You should give some breathing room to the agency.