Invest 90L:East Atlantic,Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

[weatherguru18]

Hmm voted no on the poll for tonight and a wait for visible. However looking at the recent explosion and the possibility a LCC is under it or very near the deepest convection. They might pull the trigger before visible if the trend continues. As they say..The convection is expanding in aerial coverage and intensity.

Again, look at where the 00Z models were initialized - 27.1W. The center of the convection is near 29W, about 120 miles to the west. Might as well just go to sleep and wait for visible imagery tomorrow. I'm pretty sure the NHC will do nothing with it until then. One other clue to look for is when the NHC changes the header on the model data to read "Four" vs. "Invest". It said "Invest" at 00Z.

LOL. I hear ya.. I was more than pretty sure myself as well on waiting for the visable. It will be called soon either way at this rate the llc will be consumed in convection..

What's funny about it is that the people on here who are so sure it won't be upgraded to a depression and say "there going to bed" will be the first at the computer (if they ever left) to verify at 11pm...including myself.

A note about the Lessar Antillies...this system is on the radar screens in Houston. It is already a buzz in the local news station that I work at. I can imagine what is going on in the islands. There building codes are far better than here in Texas. I'm sure that many have already begun to prepare.

[Chacor]

Wow. If I judge by the tone of the posts, I can see many people are itching to bash the TPC when it doesn't receive a TD classification at 11 p.m. EDT. Don't set yourselves on a path toward disappointment. I think it deserves TD status, but there have been no clear-cut signs (i.e. unquestionable LLC position beneath convection). Satellite presentations (in terms of organization) have deceived many people. They are playing a safe move - we should wait for the visible imagery and other data. I do not see any good reasons to disagree with the NHC. You should give some breathing room to the agency.

Thank you! Yes, recently there have been far too many "why aren't the TPC doing this" posts (both on 99L and on Flossie). I definitely agree. It's still too far out, they'll probably want to wait for some visible.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah I will admit that the LLC is less defined then it was earlier. The eastly shear is kicking the convection to the west of the broad LLC, with the subtropical high having stronger eastly flow at the upper levels then the level which the low level cirulaiton is. It hurts to say this because I went dean more then almost any one here.

[RL3AO]

It still peeves me when the NHC will call a system because its near land.

[hurricanefloyd5]

HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD
RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS THE LOW MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.


and now i think it looks better then it did when this came out this afternoon

[miamicanes177]

[CrazyC83]

My opinion is that we have TD4 but the NHC will wait on it for daytime.

[Chacor]

HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD
RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS THE LOW MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.


and now i think it looks better then it did when this came out this afternoon

Clarify - this is the 5:30 TWO, not the 10:30.

[ALhurricane]

There is absolutely no need to rush toward a classification at 11pm given the uncertainties already mentioned. Waiting until tomorrow will harm nobody in anyway, shape, or form. This is still several days away from the islands, so there is plenty of time for them to prepare if they have to.

[Aquawind]

HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD
RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS THE LOW MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.


and now i think it looks better then it did when this came out this afternoon

Yeah the thing is..they will not call it if they are sure the llc is not under the deep convection.. just no need to hurry.. give it some persistence if a llc cannot be verified and come tomorrow we will have TD4..

[hurricanefloyd5]

HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD
RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS THE LOW MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.


and now i think it looks better then it did when this came out this afternoon

Clarify - this is the 5:30 TWO, not the 10:30.

I never claimed it was at 10"30

2 things 1 10:30 is morning and evening and 2nd i said this afternoon tyvm!!!!!!!

[MiamiensisWx]

There is absolutely no need to rush toward a classification at 11pm given the uncertainties already mentioned. Waiting until tomorrow will harm nobody in anyway, shape, or form. This is still several days away from the islands, so there is plenty of time for them to prepare if they have to.

Thank you! The TPC has clearly mentioned the plausibility of development within the next 24 hours, so the islands have plenty of information. Listen to the TWOs. Anyone who has a brain will listen to the TPC (and local authorities). People should remain vigilant (though not panic) - you know the risks.

[Weatherfreak14]

So it wont be TD4 tonight for sure?

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN AUG 12 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW...EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS LOCATED
OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO HINDER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD
RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS THE LOW MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Chacor]

HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD
RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS THE LOW MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.


and now i think it looks better then it did when this came out this afternoon

Clarify - this is the 5:30 TWO, not the 10:30.

I never claimed it was at 10"30

2 things 1 10:30 is morning and evening and 2nd i said this afternoon tyvm!!!!!!!

I never said you claimed it was at 10:30. I'm just making the clarification for anyone who thinks that is the 10:30. And the morning one comes out at 11:30 not 10:30.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD
RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS THE LOW MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.


and now i think it looks better then it did when this came out this afternoon

Clarify - this is the 5:30 TWO, not the 10:30.

I do see the LLC elongated like the Quickscat shown it. But the convection and organizion is enough to make it a hair spliter. With the strength of the subtropical high it can be good and bad for a long tracking system...Good(Maybe not for people living on the islands) because it keeps it moving westward. But bad because it can do as you can see on the satellite, which is shear the system. If one level is stronger then the other its even worst.

[RL3AO]

No depression. 1030 TWO confirms.

[weatherguru18]

We have an answer. Now we wait for 5am.

[CrazyC83]

So it wont be TD4 tonight for sure?

Not officially, although it might be a tropical depression right now, it appears the NHC is going to wait on this one.

[Scorpion]

11 AM at the earliest now... I am wondering if this will ever get named