Caribbean Development?:Thread 2

[Sanibel]

Even radar can sometimes make the illusion of a circulation. It does look like a loose rotation though.

If it is formation it could become Dean before 90L. All seen on Cuban radar.

The ULL over the Keys is getting out of town west. This could be the ridge setting up that will steer 90L on a low-track.

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056


winds changed this last time around.

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

no trend.

[HeeBGBz]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float2_0.html

On the Ramsdis it looks like there's a circulation at 85w 25n. I don't know exactly what I'm looking at though.

[srainhoutx]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float2_0.html

On the Ramsdis it looks like there's a circulation at 85w 25n. I don't know exactly what I'm looking at though.

ULL moving W at 85W 25N

[vaffie]

It has become very interesting to watch this messy system again. Convection has become quite impressive though disorganized but beginning to take on an arc formation. Pressures are still high, winds are still light but picking up to 25 knots in places based on the latest quikscat, but convergence at the lower levels and divergence at the upper levels are clearly increasing nicely--creating a very favorable environment. Also interesting to watch is the 42056 buoy, for evidence of falling pressures--briefly, last hour when it should have been rising it actually fell. Over the course of the night, any evidence that this might be the beginning of a subtle trend will be important. See its graph.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... pres&uom=M

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/oce ... atl_02.png

[Brent]

10:30pm TWO:

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW...EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

[Sanibel]

OK this one has passed my test for persistence.

Nothing hangs over the west Caribbean at primetime for this long without something to it.

[srainhoutx]

Good view from Cuban Radar Mosaic this evening...

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... p200Km.gif

[vaffie]

Last hour the pressure at the 42056 buoy stayed the same at 1012 mb when it should have been rising at the fastest rate of the day. I expect we will see falling pressures starting tonight in the NW Caribbean now. As the upper low continues to move out of the way, I think we're gonna see increasing development going into tomorrow. By tomorrow night we could even have an invest and an approximate center. Interestingly, most of the models had been saying that monday would be the day that a low would be able to form, so if something formed, it would be on schedule.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... pres&uom=M

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

[tailgater]

Yes Vaffie, I too think there is something now at the western most tip of Cubaand sould head toward Northern mexico or as far north as Corpus Christi. Ithink it will be a shear system at first then maybe a weak TS before landfall. Just my guess. I'd think we'll see those winds back around to the ssw at buoy 42056. Check out these latest vorticities charts.
850mb
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4Z.GIF
700mb
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor3Z.GIF
On a side note, I know it's now Hurricane season because my power has gone out 4 times in the 2 last days for a total of about 6 hrs. Da__ it HOT.

[Stratosphere747]

Latest GFS is showing a weak low off of Brownsville in 48hrs.

[HeeBGBz]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

Looking at this loop, I don't see the inclination to move west. NW maybe.

I was caught up in watching 90L and maybe I should be paying a little more attention closer to home.

[Sanibel]

ULL too close and tearing up anything trying to form.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Upper Level Low enhancing convection over the
caribbean:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... xirg8n.GIF

[vbhoutex]

That ULL is moving West now. It is messing with the Carribean disturbance but as it moves West I think that the Carribean blob will begin its' NW movement. Onces it gets into the S GOM I do expect it to turn more W unless the ridge weakens some. Pretty much the type of weird track that was being shown earlier this week when it would go N across Cuba and then turn due west. I've been watching both 90L and this, but this one has more of my interest at this time since it is closer to home and a more imminent threat if it is able to develop.

[srainhoutx]

That ULL is moving West now. It is messing with the Carribean disturbance but as it moves West I think that the Carribean blob will begin its' NW movement. Onces it gets into the S GOM I do expect it to turn more W unless the ridge weakens some. Pretty much the type of weird track that was being shown earlier this week when it would go N across Cuba and then turn due west. I've been watching both 90L and this, but this one has more of my interest at this time since it is closer to home and a more imminent threat if it is able to develop.

Agrees. 90L will get it's dues in time

[Aric Dunn]

I would say we have a tad bit of vort !! 120 on the western tip of cuba

[vaffie]

I would say we have a tad bit of vort !! 120 on the western tip of cuba

This will probably be where the surface low forms, for there has been a lot of convection firing in the last couple hours in this area too, and if it continues through the night, we will likely be able to see a nice rotation on visible satellite some time tomorrow. Ironically, though a much smaller area, it's vorticity is not much lower than 90L's. Pressures have also already peaked for the night at the 42056 buoy and started falling. It will be an interesting day tomorrow on both sides of the Atlantic!

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8vor4.GIF
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... pres&uom=M

Pressures at Cancun have also fallen 1.7 mb since this time yesterday.
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... 07&month=8