Global Models for 90L

[Wx_Warrior]

Took the post right out of my mouth caneman...Let's hope for some of that before the boiling GOM.

[Derek Ortt]

I just use the ATCF output, which is what I usually use for the GFDL.

[vaffie]

Brief WRF comparisons.

At 18Z on 17 August, today's WRF's forecasts have been (roughly):

6Z forecast: 15.9N, 61.1W, 940 mb

12Z forecast: 15.0N, 60.3W, 970 mb

18Z forecast (just released forecast): 15.3N, 60.3W, 990 mb.

[HeeBGBz]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_204l.gif

Day 9 would be a pivotal knucklebiter for about anyone on the gulf coast. Which way does the wind blow...

[Blown Away]

Is there one spot where one can find and run the model animations. It gets confusing looking at all the pages trying to find the model animations.

[vaffie]

For the 00Z models, 90L has been initialized at 12.7N, 27.1W, with winds at 25 knots and a central pressure of 1006 mb, and a vector of 16 knots at 275 degrees.

http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

[ronjon]

Is there one spot where one can find and run the model animations. It gets confusing looking at all the pages trying to find the model animations.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[Blown Away]

TY Ronjon, I bookmarked it. Where can I get the GFS 300hr loop

[miamicanes177]

TY Ronjon, I bookmarked it. Where can I get the GFS 300hr loop

Just click the word loop
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/model_l.shtml
Another good site is below for the models:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

[Scott_inVA]

Is there one spot where one can find and run the model animations. It gets confusing looking at all the pages trying to find the model animations.

http://www.midatlanticwx.com

not free but you do get loops and individual error reports and maps.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA

[TexasF6]

Holy Moley Batman! Its still waaaaaay too early for this though...but oh my....

[destruction92]

Holy Moley Batman! Its still waaaaaay too early for this though...but oh my....

Knowing how ridiculous it is to depend on the GFS 7 days in advance, I will say this if you want me to take its track seriously: Unless you live within 20 miles of the Texas-Mexico border or south into northeastern Mexico, you should not be extremely worried...Austin would feel tropical storm gusts at most from the forecasted track 7+ days in advance set out by the GFS (which Forecaster Derek Ortt said he trusted Mickelson's putt more than the GFS long term guidance)

[btangy]

While everyone concentrates on the exact path of each deterministic run, perhaps a better thing to do is to look at the ensemble spread to assess the uncertainty in the overall synoptic pattern:

Here's the 12Z GEFS spaghetti plot for the 500mb 540dm heights at 180hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... f_180m.gif

There's actually not that much spread among the ensemble members this far out. All show a sharp trough off the West coast, weak ridging across the central US, and a very broad trough along the East coast. Given that the ensemble spread is not very large, the predictability of the mid-latitude synoptic pattern (which will ultimately determine where our storm goes) is above average, IMO. This general pattern is in agreement with the Euro 12Z run:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

Something to watch will be any possible short waves rotating across the broad trough off the East coast, which are harder to time and resolve this far out. These may impart a more northerly motion at future times.

[astrosbaseball22]

when does GFS 0z roll?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Anytime now!

[skysummit]

when does GFS 0z roll?

It has begun...out to 24 hours now.

[astrosbaseball22]

can somebody post it

[skysummit]

Out to 48 hours.....hit refresh every few minutes.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_m.shtml

[GraysonDave]

60 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _060.shtml

[Extremeweatherguy]

84 hrs...

Surface = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif

Looks like yet another Caribbean run in the making!