Invest 90L:East Atlantic,Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

[RL3AO]

Just about an hour till sunrise.

[Scorpion]

00z ECMWF develops it but VERY weak at first, before coming ashore near FL at what looks like tropical storm or weak hurricane intensity

[Brent]

00z ECMWF develops it but VERY weak at first, before coming ashore near FL at what looks like tropical storm or weak hurricane intensity

Interesting, thanks for posting.

6z models STILL not out.

[Scorpion]

00z ECMWF develops it but VERY weak at first, before coming ashore near FL at what looks like tropical storm or weak hurricane intensity

Interesting, thanks for posting.

6z models STILL not out.

Perhaps they're waiting for something?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

If you are waiting for the NHC suite of models, I wouldn't. The 6Z models are often not available. I'm still not sure why.

[Coredesat]

90L is gone from FNMOC. Perhaps they're upgrading?

[RL3AO]

[Normandy]

Hmmm.....
I dunno, it seems as if the center has moved farther from the convection, I think I can detect it on IR right now, but I'll wait till visible to confirm. It seems to be elongating....wish we had a recent QSCAT.

Its still facing some decent mid level shear.

[RL3AO]

They won't have a clear visible until 5:00 or 5:15 ET.

[RL3AO]

I'm refreshing like mad on the NHC site.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Come on TD4. I know your it.

[RL3AO]

Not much of a help.

[Normandy]

Something looks odd....From looking at the IR's it look like the LLC is far far removed from the convection, and it has stopped firing convection all together....the convection seems more concentrated which suggest maybe it formed a new center .... the circulation was elongated earlier today, so it is possible.

Gotta wait for visibles to confirm this suspicion.

[TheEuropean]

I'm refreshing like mad on the NHC site.

If it is upgraded you will read it here sooner than on the NHC site They will upgrade the system not before 11am, but I think this has chances to become a big system later this week.

[knotimpaired]

The Weather Channel just said it is not a TD and may be later today.

[Chacor]

209
ABNT20 KNHC 130902
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON AUG 13 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS LOCATED
OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR ON TUESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Coredesat]

I suppose someone at FNMOC hit a wrong button or something, because it still isn't back, and it's certainly not a TD right now based on the TWO.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Really if you think about it, who's to say that it is not a tropical depression now? I mean if it has a LLC, a closed wind field pretty much. In has winds of 30 knots...Its not a huge deal besides for record keeping in for the hurricane fan. In who's to say that this would not of been a depression for the last 24 hours if it was in the gulf of Mexico? If some one wents to call this a depression because of the quickscat and buoy(yesterday night) shown westly winds. Then that is there choice.

I respect the nhc forecasters. They have put in 20,30,40 years of there lifes into the love of tropical cyclones. For offical records they are the guys I look to. But every one has his little option. I like reading them to,,,That is the funniest part to coming to a board like this. I could otherwise look at satellite and data my self if not for the fun and excitement that comes with other people that love cyclones to.

As for 90L I would say it looks pretty good. Still moving westward on the southern side of the subtropical high. The visible shows that it is still broad. But fairly close or just on the edge of the convection. But that is from the first shot. In with this system just moving into view its hard to get a perfect idea. I think we will have our cyclone by 11am.

[Normandy]

West wind? Check.
20-30 kt winds? Check.
Closed circulation? Check.

By definition, it is a tropical depression. The NHC has not declared it yet, but that is inevitable. Just because the NHC has not declared this a TD does not mean it is not...if this were anywhere within 500 miles of land, they would have declared this. If it were in the GOM, it would have been declared. I do understand why the NHC has waited and they are justified in doing so. But anyone right now who believes this a TD isn't wrong in my opinion.

The circulation looks drastically elongated and broad at this moment. We need more visible frames to see a clearer picture.

[Thunder44]

QS pass this morning at 7:21 UTC barely caught this system shows the center is near 12N and bit enlongated from 30W to 28W. That places most of the convection west of the center, but there are some 30-35kt barbs on the west side:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas32.png