Caribbean Development?:Thread 2

[Extremeweatherguy]

00z GFS looks to bring this mess into the south or central TX coast in 2-3 days.

[srainhoutx]

00z GFS looks to bring this mess into the south or central TX coast in 2-3 days.

"could" be a nice little drill for TX if GFS plays out on 90L

[tailgater]

We may have to change the thread title again as it looks as the vorticity is moving more NW than I thought it would. As you can see in these 3 maps.
6hrs. ago
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... or4Z-2.GIF
3hrs ago
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... or4Z-1.GIF
latest
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4Z.GIF

[HouTXmetro]

Interesting, also notice the explosion of deep convection just south of central cuba. Something's a-brewing!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

[srainhoutx]

good view from KEYW Long Range Radar Loop this morning...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php ... Z&loop=yes

Cuban Radar Mosiac (a little old)...

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... p200Km.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB is still calling for this to become a TS and make landfall somewhere near the TX/MX border. He said that he expects TS conditions along the lower TX Gulf coast next Wed/Wed night. We still have time to watch this though, so we will have to see if he changes his tune on track or intensity any over the next couple of days.

[kozzieman]

Where are you reading JB's comments? Do you subscribe to a site which requires you to pay a monthly charge to be able to read JB's comments?

[vaffie]

Taking a fresh look at it at 5:30 am central time, with pressures falling at the buoy and Cancun, with much better looking organization on satellite with continued convection, increased vorticity, less shear and keep in mind that though the center is partly over land, the water here is the hottest anywhere in the Atlantic basin--more than making up for any land interaction. I expect an invest today and perhaps a depression by 11 am on Tuesday, and a tropical storm shortly thereafter.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Upper level low over gulf of Mexico, with maybe a broad low pressure area about ready to move over the Yuctan. But worth watching.

[punkyg]

http://www.tropmet.com/tropics_atlantic.htm

[Nimbus]

There is a high finally starting to build over the NW Caribbean. The ULL mid gulf may pull some energy a little further north as the high builds in east of the ULL. If a low was to spin up near 15N under the high it might travel a little more NW rather than WNW. I think the models are just using low level steering as guidance for a surface feature. Won't be any big threat if it stays a surface feature.

[Portastorm]

Based on satellite, there does appear to be an interesting feature near 20n, 84w this morning. Wonder if this is the action we've been waiting for?

[vaffie]

I actually think that the vorticity center is going to be where it forms--just northwest of the tip of Cuba. It is being sheared heavily at present, but by tonight it will become evident as the shear decreases. 22.9N, 84.7W.

[tailgater]

You can already pick out the mid level circ. WSW of Havana.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Aric Dunn]

There is clearly a Low developing near the western tip of cuba radar and sat as well as some surface obs seem to confirm the existence of one.

i'll be back later maybe some visible images will help locate one

[HouTXmetro]

Looks like a developing depression to me on the NW tip of Cuba. All interest in the W GOM should monitor this closely. I wonder what the NHC thinks this morning?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[Aric Dunn]

look between cuba and the yucatan .. not over cuba there is a mid level circ over western cuba but and surface circ is over water near the Yucatan channel

[HouTXmetro]

I will have to wait for the visuals because I can't make out the surface feature on IR.

[xironman]

Look to my untrained eye like the ULL may finally be weakening a bit as it moves off. May give the convection some time to hold together.

[NDG]