Simple Poll,Part four

[cycloneye]

TD at 11 AM EDT? Yes or no?

I haved gone with no in all the polls but I say yes now.

[webke]

I vote yes, it's looking healthier.

[TheEuropean]

I voted yes. There is some shear right now, but system is looking better for me and may already be a T.D.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

YES because if the LLC appears to have reformed under the eastside of the convection. But the system is moving at near 20 knots. One slip up in 90L could end up like 96L.

[vacanechaser]

i say yes... but like i said last night... they do it arond 8-9am this morning...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[cycloneye]

Bumping poll.

[punkyg]

I said yes.

I'm sure it will be declared a td at 11am, because the coc is back under some convection and it has more convection then it did yesterday.

[HURAKAN]

It seems that 11 AM is a GO!!

[ciclonson]

OK, yes at 11:00 am.

[Thunder44]

Yeah, it looks organized enough.

[canetracker]

I voted yes this time as it looks like it may be getting a little better organized this morning.

[stormchazer]

Yes, the NHC has a visible look now to add to the QS info that should confirm to them that it is a Tropical Depression.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Yes.

This time around we aren't searching for the hint of a swirl, or praying that convection refires, or hoping against hope that an LLC forms. Its pretty obvious based simply on visible presentation that we have a rapidly forming TD or TS on our hands. All the factors are in place, and the only thing keeping it from getting much more organized seems to be some shear. I've not seen a more obvious quickscat that defined the LLC as well as this INVEST has in a while.

[Chacor]

AL, 04, 2007081312, , BEST, 0, 121N, 307W, 30, 1005, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[HURAKAN]

YES WON!!!

TIME TO CLOSE THIS THREAD AND WELCOME LONG HOURS OF TRACKING!!!

[cycloneye]

YES WON!!!

TIME TO CLOSE THIS THREAD AND WELCOME LONG HOURS OF TRACKING!!!

It will close as soon we get the official word from NHC around 10:30-11 AM.

[Chacor]

YES WON!!!

TIME TO CLOSE THIS THREAD AND WELCOME LONG HOURS OF TRACKING!!!

It will close as soon we get the official word from NHC around 10:30-11 AM.

I don't get this. The TPC NCEP server already says 04L... so... only thing we need now is the advisory. Remember that NHC's advisories are at 03, 09, 15 and 21Z but the operational time is synoptic - 00, 06, 12, 18Z. At 12Z we have TD4.

[vacanechaser]

wow.. i was close i guess on the time... in the past they have writen a stds and said they would start advisories at 11am... thats what i was counting on... oh well... i was close though... lol..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[tomboudreau]

Sure looks like a TS now. 11 will be the birth of TD4/Dean. Everyone have there cigars ready???

[cycloneye]

YES WON!!!

TIME TO CLOSE THIS THREAD AND WELCOME LONG HOURS OF TRACKING!!!

It will close as soon we get the official word from NHC around 10:30-11 AM.

I don't get this. The TPC NCEP server already says 04L... so... only thing we need now is the advisory. Remember that NHC's advisories are at 03, 09, 15 and 21Z but the operational time is synoptic - 00, 06, 12, 18Z. At 12Z we have TD4.

In past years we had a few cases when a disturbance had 2.0/2.0 T number,the models with 30kts,NRL changes header to NONAME and what you posted from the NCEP site.I remember when I made a TD thread before the 5 PM advisory was out.But what happened,they did not upgraded to TD as the system becamed less organized before the 5 PM time.That is why we prefer to wait for the official word from NHC,or a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement or an advisory.