Global Models for 90L

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 131131
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 13

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.3 29.0 275./14.9
6 13.0 30.6 293./17.1
12 13.1 32.4 275./18.1
18 12.9 34.6 266./21.7
24 12.7 36.5 262./18.2
30 12.3 38.1 258./16.1
36 12.3 39.7 270./15.3
42 12.3 41.3 270./15.6
48 12.1 43.1 263./17.9
54 12.1 44.7 270./15.8
60 12.3 46.4 278./16.3
66 12.6 47.9 278./15.5
72 12.9 49.5 282./16.0
78 13.2 51.1 282./15.5
84 13.7 52.6 288./14.9
90 14.1 54.0 284./14.6
96 14.4 55.5 283./14.7
102 14.7 56.8 282./13.3
108 15.0 58.2 283./13.5
114 15.2 59.5 277./12.5
120 15.4 60.7 278./11.4
126 15.7 61.6 288./ 9.7



6z GFDL.

[Blown Away]

6z GFDL slows 90L way down towards the end of the run.

[weatherwindow]

feeling a transient weakness?..gaining a bit of latitude..perhaps that ridge is not quite as solid as the gfs portrays and the northern leewards and pr will be at risk...time will tell.....are there any indications that such a weakness will exist around the 96 hour mark?....rich

[DESTRUCTION5]

Both UK and GFDL are feeling some kinda tugging in the long range..May be a start of a new trend..

[Flakeys]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_04.gif

[ronjon]

What I'm seeing today is that we may start seeing some changes in the global models toward a more northwest turn near the northern Leeward Islands. The GFS and Euro develop a weakness near the Bahamas in 5 days which may steer the storm in that direction. At this point though, I think it will be a temporary move perhaps lasting a couple of days and then a more W-NW heading as both models are showing an elongated Upper Level High building in from the SW Atlantic through the SE states after that.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/images/gfs_500_120s.gif

[gatorcane]

so where are the models generally putting this system long-term as far as U.S. impact and appx when?

[vacanechaser]

so where are the models generally putting this system long-term as far as U.S. impact and appx when?

well the only one i have had time to see is the 06z gfs... it has now pulled it further north from mexico to the central texas coast... maybe seeing a new trend with the gfs...

ohh, and the euro puts a weak system near the florida east coast... if i remember correctly



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Extremecane]

GFDL comes back with the storm:

[Extremeweatherguy]

This is now the 7th GFS run in a row to show the system moving toward the western GOM. I wonder if the 12z will make 8?

[Extremeweatherguy]

What I'm seeing today is that we may start seeing some changes in the global models toward a more northwest turn near the northern Leeward Islands. The GFS and Euro develop a weakness near the Bahamas in 5 days which may steer the storm in that direction. At this point though, I think it will be a temporary move perhaps lasting a couple of days and then a more W-NW heading as both models are showing an elongated Upper Level High building in from the SW Atlantic through the SE states after that.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/images/gfs_500_120s.gif

This weakness was there in previous runs too though, it is not like it is something new. The problem is that it appears to disappear too soon and the storm also stays too far south. However, if the storm is further north or if the weakness is stronger, then it might have an impact.