Tropical Storm FLOSSIE (CPAC): Discussions, Analysis and Ima

[Derek Ortt]

that is exactly why one should not use precise forecast points. Hawaii is within the cone, so this could hit them as a major

[Chacor]

Officially the forecast track, yes subject to errors, brings it about 90 miles SSW of South Point as a 90-knot hurricane. However you have to bear in mind the wind radii, and currently TS-force winds extend outward only about 105 miles.

[miamicanes177]

This is looking like it's ready to kick butt and take names. I feel sorry for those people in Hawaii if this takes the northward track. Near Maximum strength right now.

[HURAKAN]

"FIERCE FLOSSIE"

[Chacor]

Lovely, almost fully annular.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Static image of 8/13 12Z early cycle and 6Z late cycle models:

[Chacor]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 943.1mb/122.2kt

[cyclonic chronic]

"FIERCE FLOSSIE"

beautiful, simply perfect. hope it doesnt start tracking more northward, Hi. might not be the same.

[TampaFl]

NWS Hawaii radar mosaic: Flossie's outer bands showing up on radar:


http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/hawaii_loop.php


Robert

[Derek Ortt]

I think those are trade wind related

[Chacor]

Flossie is a relatively small system and is still a couple of hundred miles offshore.

[CrazyC83]

That 959 pressure seems really high for its intensity...

[HURAKAN]

That 959 pressure seems really high for its intensity...

But it's accurate because it was measured by the RECON.

Yesterday:
URPN12 KBIX 130000
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/23:46:30Z
B. 13 deg 48 min N
146 deg 16 min W
C. 700 mb 2739 m
D. 25 kt
E. 140 deg 064 nm
F. 209 deg 099 kt
G. 133 deg 011 nm
H. 959 mb
I. 8 C/ 3050 m
J. 18 C/ 3043 m
K. 7 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C18
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF301 0109E FLOSSIE OB 21
MAX FL WIND 121 KT NE QUAD 22:18:10 Z

[Derek Ortt]

a Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the Big Island of Hawaii

[Chacor]

WTPA22 PHFO 131440
TCMCP2

HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
1500 UTC MON AUG 13 2007

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 149.5W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT....... 95NE 70SE 70SW 95NW.
12 FT SEAS..130NE 90SE 90SW 130NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 149.5W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 148.9W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.6N 151.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 65NE 50SE 50SW 65NW.
34 KT... 95NE 70SE 70SW 95NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.6N 153.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT... 90NE 65SE 65SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.5N 155.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 40SE 40SW 55NW.
34 KT... 85NE 60SE 60SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.3N 157.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT... 80NE 55SE 55SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.7N 161.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 20.9N 165.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 22.2N 170.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 149.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

[Chacor]

WTPA32 PHFO 131447
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
500 AM HST MON AUG 13 2007

..A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...

AT 500 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE
149.5 WEST OR ABOUT 495 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT
705 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.

FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLOSSIE
IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110
MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

THE MAIN EFFECTS FROM HURRICANE FLOSSIE ARE EXPECTED ON THE BIG
ISLAND TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
BIG ISLAND LATER TODAY. EVERYONE IN HAWAII IS URGED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR FUTURE BULLETINS AS THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE
APPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 500 AM HST POSITION...14.9 N...149.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

[Sanibel]

My eye wants to say it is trending slightly N of forecasted track - but the predicted track is impressively accurate so far.

I can't believe what I'm seeing this morning! A muscular category 4 with mean structure bearing down on Hawaii! This monster has the look that it could veer out of track any second and head right towards the Big Island. If I were on the SE shore I would be preparing for the possibility - even if it doesn't. And don't forget Kauai downrange. Flossie is staying strong and has already defied the weakening prediction. In all my years of hurricane watching I've never seen a monster bearing down on Hawaii.

This alone makes 2007 a unique year!

WOW!

[HURAKAN]

CAT. 4

[clfenwi]

HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
500 AM HST MON AUG 13 2007

HURRICANE FLOSSIE IS NOT WILLING TO GIVE UP. DESPITE HINTS THAT THE
HURRICANE MIGHT MOVE OVER COOLER OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES...AND THAT
IT WOULD EVENTUALLY ENCOUNTER HOSTILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...IT
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY. THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM JTWC AND SAB WERE 6.0...WHILE HFO REPORTED 5.5. THE
ADT AT 1200 UTC IS 6.2...WHICH SUGGESTS A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED OF 120 KT.

THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ACCELERATED THROUGH 36 HOURS. THE
FORECAST INTENSITY HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASED BASED ON THE GFDL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK
FORECAST...INTENSITY AND RADII...THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE REACHING THE BIG ISLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TUESDAY. THEREFORE A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII. WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE BIG ISLAND LATER
TODAY. THIS MAY TAKE THE FORM OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IF THE
PRESENT TRACK FORECAST APPEARS TO BE VERIFYING. AT THE MOMENT...THE
ISLANDS FROM MAUI COUNTY TO KAUAI COUNTY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REQUIRE
ANY TYPES OF WATCHES. HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION OF THE
TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH MIGHT RESULT IN WATCHES...OR WARNINGS...FOR
ADDITIONAL AREAS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/1500Z 14.9N 149.5W 120 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 15.6N 151.4W 115 KT
24HR VT 14/1200Z 16.6N 153.8W 110 KT
36HR VT 15/0000Z 17.5N 155.8W 105 KT
48HR VT 15/1200Z 18.3N 157.8W 100 KT
72HR VT 16/1200Z 19.7N 161.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 17/1200Z 20.9N 165.2W 70 KT
120HR VT 18/1200Z 22.2N 170.0W 65 KT