Invest 90L:East Atlantic,Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

[Normandy]

I dunno.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 5#controls

Fairly strong rotation is noted with the convection.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Why arer we assuming it will be TD #4 at 10:30 EDT? Tropical Cyclone 4 could be Tropical Storm Dean. I haven't seen recent scatterometer data, but didn't it already have some 35 knot winds last night?

[Cyclone1]

Why arer we assuming it will be TD #4 at 10:30 EDT? Tropical Cyclone 4 could be Tropical Storm Dean. I haven't seen recent scatterometer data, but didn't it already have some 35 knot winds last night?

The NRLcalls it 04L.NONAME, which means depression. If it were Dean, it would be called 04L.DEAN.

[WmE]

Why arer we assuming it will be TD #4 at 10:30 EDT? Tropical Cyclone 4 could be Tropical Storm Dean. I haven't seen recent scatterometer data, but didn't it already have some 35 knot winds last night?

Yep, there have been some TS force barbs.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 007.invest

Some decoded output from that file...

Storm information valid as of: Monday, August 13, 2007 12:00 Z
Coordinates: 12.1N 30.7W
Location: 521 miles (838 km) to the WSW (249°) from Praia, Cape Verde
Pressure (MSLP): 1005 mb (29.68 inHg | 1005 hPa)
Sustained wind speed (1 min. avg.): 30 knots (35 mph | 15 m/s)
Storm Number: 04
Level of tropical cyclone development: Tropical Depression (This information is sometimes inaccurate.)
Isobar details: The last closed isobar has a pressure of 1010 mb. (29.83 inHg | 1010 hPa) The radius of the last closed isobar is 180 nautical miles (207 miles | 333 kilometers).
Radius of Max Winds: 50 nautical miles (58 miles | 93 kilometers)
System Depth: Deep

So at 8 AM EDT it was a tropical depression. Note FOUR in bottom right of file, It could be stronger at 11 AM EDT.

[MiamiensisWx]

Why arer we assuming it will be TD #4 at 10:30 EDT? Tropical Cyclone 4 could be Tropical Storm Dean. I haven't seen recent scatterometer data, but didn't it already have some 35 knot winds last night?

Those winds will fade if the current dry air intrusion and decaying presentation continues over the next few hours. Additionally, I would expect a weaker spin at the low to mid-levels. The environment has turned more hostile over the past hour. You can clearly detect a stable mid-level air mass (and easterly shear) killing convective activity near the LLC. It actually looks worse than yesterday - it is starting to look horrible, IMO.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

[Lowpressure]

These phases are all part of organization. LLC is quite well established albeit on the very eastern edge of the convection. I feel NHC is correct in not jumping the gun here on TD status yet. You can bet the island residents and NWS San Juan are watching. Plenty of time to be sure. Would not take much for this one to really wrap up if the center can stay with the convection-vert stacking. This strikes me as one of those back and forth type systems when you go away from the computer for a few hours, then come back and get surprised by an intensifying system.

[Javlin]

Latest visible frame

It's encountering some huge problems. The LLC could become exposed within another hour. Yesterday, convective activity was maintained close to the low-level circulation. There was an evident mid-level circulation, too. Currently, the mid-level spin is becoming less defined, and convection is moving away from the LLC. This trend occurs as the TPC could upgrade to a TD at 11 a.m. EDT - that's not a good sign for the immediate development prospects.

Yea looks like Wind shear becomes favorable in the 60hr range but in the short term it starts to happen in a few more degrees link

[gatorcane]

edit:

well I've been away this weekend but we certainly need to watch this one.....Dean could be on the way soon?

[canegrl04]

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_al042007.invest

Some decoded output from that file...

Storm information valid as of: Monday, August 13, 2007 12:00 Z
Coordinates: 12.1N 30.7W
Location: 521 miles (838 km) to the WSW (249°) from Praia, Cape Verde
Pressure (MSLP): 1005 mb (29.68 inHg | 1005 hPa)
Sustained wind speed (1 min. avg.): 30 knots (35 mph | 15 m/s)
Storm Number: 04
Level of tropical cyclone development: Tropical Depression (This information is sometimes inaccurate.)
Isobar details: The last closed isobar has a pressure of 1010 mb. (29.83 inHg | 1010 hPa) The radius of the last closed isobar is 180 nautical miles (207 miles | 333 kilometers).
Radius of Max Winds: 50 nautical miles (58 miles | 93 kilometers)
System Depth: Deep

So at 8 AM EDT it was a tropical depression. Note FOUR in bottom right of file, It could be stronger at 11 AM EDT.

WOW Don't have to wait so soon after td formation to see Dean .Maybe this is why Steve Lyons was "very concerned".He sees a dangerous system developing

[storms in NC]

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_al042007.invest

Some decoded output from that file...

Storm information valid as of: Monday, August 13, 2007 12:00 Z
Coordinates: 12.1N 30.7W
Location: 521 miles (838 km) to the WSW (249°) from Praia, Cape Verde
Pressure (MSLP): 1005 mb (29.68 inHg | 1005 hPa)
Sustained wind speed (1 min. avg.): 30 knots (35 mph | 15 m/s)
Storm Number: 04
Level of tropical cyclone development: Tropical Depression (This information is sometimes inaccurate.)
Isobar details: The last closed isobar has a pressure of 1010 mb. (29.83 inHg | 1010 hPa) The radius of the last closed isobar is 180 nautical miles (207 miles | 333 kilometers).
Radius of Max Winds: 50 nautical miles (58 miles | 93 kilometers)
System Depth: Deep

So at 8 AM EDT it was a tropical depression. Note FOUR in bottom right of file, It could be stronger at 11 AM EDT.

I don't think it will be more than a TD till it can get it's self together . Right now once again the the tops are blowen away from the center of the low. TD I would say JIMO

[cheezyWXguy]

Convection has indeed been waning over the past hour or so, because I think it may have spat out an outflow boundary. However, there is already another flare-up on the NE side of the convection mass, which could take over for the dieing one. Also, like said above, NRL has td 4 up, so 11am advisory, here we come

[cycloneye]

In past years we had a few cases when a disturbance had 2.0/2.0 T number,the models with 30kts,NRL changes header to NONAME and what comes out from the NCEP site.I remember when I made a TD thread before the 5 PM advisory was out.But what happened,they did not upgraded to TD as the system becamed less organized before the 5 PM time.That is why we prefer to wait for the official word from NHC,or a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement or an advisory.

[Lowpressure]

I agree, I do not see anything more than a TD, and that may be generous currently. I still think we will see a better system later this afternoon. Still organizing.

[artist]

they have 04 listed in the model plots now nad have it initialized slightly further north than before.



http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots.html

[Steve]

From Pompano Beach:

>>...but I think we may see this system affect the Leewards and PR and skirt north of DR into the Southeast Bahamas.

Why do you think this? Is there any reasoning behind this solution or is it just a gut feeling you have? Thanks.

Steve

[hurricanefloyd5]

Convection has indeed been waning over the past hour or so, because I think it may have spat out an outflow boundary. However, there is already another flare-up on the NE side of the convection mass, which could take over for the dieing one. Also, like said above, NRL has td 4 up, so 11am advisory, here we come

where dose it say that at im looking right at it and it's still showing INVEST90L???????

[Derek Ortt]

if I recall correctly about that TD thread that didnt materialize, it was called a TD here because the models had 30KT, but the header was not changed and nothing was in ATCF (I think it was also me who snapped at whoever started that thread, lol)

[hurricanefloyd5]

The center is still under all that cloud and convestion now from what i can see!!!!!

this is JMHO!!!!!!

[Evil Jeremy]

the LCC remains unexposed, for now.