Invest 90L:East Atlantic,Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

[USTropics]

Looks like we'll see TD #4 at 11am on NHC.

http://ustropics.net (my new blog entry)
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=745&tstamp=200708 (Jeff Masters new blog entry)

[Derek Ortt]

please... easy on the !'s and ?'s One is more than enough

[gatorcane]

From Pompano Beach:

>>...but I think we may see this system affect the Leewards and PR and skirt north of DR into the Southeast Bahamas.

Why do you think this? Is there any reasoning behind this solution or is it just a gut feeling you have? Thanks.

Steve

I think South Florida really needs to watch this system if it takes that path. Historically that is the scenario where South Florida gets hit from the East. A Building Bermuda high and a system that just skirts the islands to the north.

[cheezyWXguy]

Convection has indeed been waning over the past hour or so, because I think it may have spat out an outflow boundary. However, there is already another flare-up on the NE side of the convection mass, which could take over for the dieing one. Also, like said above, NRL has td 4 up, so 11am advisory, here we come

where dose it say that at im looking right at it and it's still showing INVEST90L???????

Right here:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... k_vis/dmsp


Also, one thing I noticed just now, as the convection dies to the west, convection on the southern bands appears to be increasing and creeping north, As im it were abosrbing the deep convection into another part of the system

[ncupsscweather]

why does the NRL have this also as 04L.NONAME.. on the NRL doesn't that mean they are calling it a TD

[cycloneye]

if I recall correctly about that TD thread that didnt materialize, it was called a TD here because the models had 30KT, but the header was not changed and nothing was in ATCF (I think it was also me who snapped at whoever started that thread, lol)

You remember that one

[hurricanefloyd5]

Looks like we'll see TD #4 at 11am on NHC.

http://ustropics.net (my new blog entry)
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=745&tstamp=200708 (Jeff Masters new blog entry)

Is everyone here smoking something?im looking right at the nrl site and still says INVEST90L so whats up with that????

[EyELeSs1]

Hey Derek what do you think of the current organization of the "TD"? Do you think it will survive the easterly shear and do you still think it is becoming better organized within the last few hours?

[destruction92]

Yesterday the general consensus was 90L would be classified a depression either during the night or morning. Now it has changed to this evening or tomorrow. I bet tomorrow again the delay process will continue until eventually the SAL catches up and crushes 90L.

Honestly speaking, I think the NHC is hesitant to classify 90L as a depression as of now since some reliable models (I think Euro, GFDL, UKMET, etc.) are dissipating 90L after a few days. Until there is model consensus of sustained development, I do not think the NHC is willing to classify 90L as a depressing even if it has that status right now.

[Ivanhater]

How do you ignore again?

[hurricanefloyd5]

Looks like we'll see TD #4 at 11am on NHC.

http://ustropics.net (my new blog entry)
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=745&tstamp=200708 (Jeff Masters new blog entry)

Is everyone here smoking something?im looking right at the nrl site and still says INVEST90L so whats up with that????

I am quoting a line from JEFF MASTERS'S blog "This morning's QuikSCAT satellite pass at 3:21am EDT found a closed circulation centered near 12.5N 29W, with top winds of 40 mph."

so this means it could go straight to TS DEAN am i right??

[WmE]

Here's a pic.

[artist]

they do have it as 04 in the model plots - go back a page to see my post about it.

[Chacor]

How do you ignore again?

User's profile - > Click "Add foe" under "online" or "offline".

[Chris_in_Tampa]

The NRL site has had continuing problems. Listing both 90L and 04L is probably one of them. (or it could be that the renumbering file was too incomplete)

Here is where the NHC's ATCF database upgraded 90L to 04L:
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 042007.ren

And here is the latest info:
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 007.invest

Notice how the renumber file did not have all the data in it for 12Z. So perhaps NRL got messed up by that.

[USTropics]

Also links are no longer provided for Invest 90L on the Navy site.

[Derek Ortt]

what are my thoughts... check into nwhhc around 10:45... I'll be full of some very good news (sarcasm off)

[USTropics]

91L has been declared for the area to the east of the Yucatan Peninsula.

[gatorcane]

what are my thoughts... check into nwhhc around 10:45... I'll be full of some very good news (sarcasm off)

sarcasm off?

[EyELeSs1]

what are my thoughts... check into nwhhc around 10:45... I'll be full of some very good news (sarcasm off)

awesome...thx again (edit:awesome for the info)