Invest 90L:East Atlantic,Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

[Ivanhater]

ahh much better...thank you...

[artist]

Looks like we'll see TD #4 at 11am on NHC.

http://ustropics.net (my new blog entry)
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=745&tstamp=200708 (Jeff Masters new blog entry)

Is everyone here smoking something?im looking right at the nrl site and still says INVEST90L so whats up with that????

you need to hit your refresh button, if that doesn't work then try holding down refresh and shift at the same time. If that doesn't work then clear your coolies and temporary internet files.

[SkeetoBite]

Looks like we'll see TD #4 at 11am on NHC.

http://ustropics.net (my new blog entry)
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=745&tstamp=200708 (Jeff Masters new blog entry)

Is everyone here smoking something?im looking right at the nrl site and still says INVEST90L so whats up with that????

[MiamiensisWx]

Current trends indicate an increasingly exposed LLC (courtesy of a strong 500 mbar Azores ridge and fast easterly flow). You can see the easterly "surge" on the latest visibles - the convection is beginning to accelerate faster than the circulation. That's very bad for short-term development (within 24 hours), IMO. I doubt its current sfc winds reach 30 kts... 20 to 25 kts is more realistic for the advisories (although I bet the TPC will utilize 30 kts). I think it will barely retain enough organization for a TD by 11 a.m. EDT. SAL doesn't appear to be an inhibitive factor.

On another note, I think this could be a classic scenario: a system fails to deepen considerably until it enters the eastern Caribbean, where upper-air conditions are progged to be more conducive. The shallow structure and slow development (because of a temporary hostile environment) could signal a possible southern pathway into the Caribbean Sea, which would follow earlier model guidance. It's a hunch, but I think it could be a plausible scenario. I would monitor this system closely when it reaches the Caribbean - Derek mentioned the possibility of a better environment, especially if it organizes before its arrival in the islands.

[Steve]

>>I think South Florida really needs to watch this system if it takes that path. Historically that is the scenario where South Florida gets hit from the East. A Building Bermuda high and a system that just skirts the islands to the north.

I think they do too. But I don't like South Florida getting hit from the east because that is often indicative of a dual-hit storm (anywhere from the Panhandle to South Central Louisiana). Insurance is bad enough. And so I asked the question of that poster in Pompano hoping that it was just some area-casting and possible fears rather than a strong hunch/gut feeling. Most of us in Louisiana and Florida have seen our insurance rates skyrocket. I'm waiting on the ex to finish our house destroyed in Katrina so she can buy me out. And that ain't gonna happen until sometime between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

Steve

[artist]

can someone give me the back up nrl site, please? I am having to replace all my links as I find them after hard drive burned and fried.

( need to learn to proofread - geeesh!)

[SkeetoBite]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi (server is extremely slow as of date of this posting)

[artist]

thanks skeetobite - I must have the backup one then, can you give me the other?

[EyELeSs1]

looks like it still has some strong shear to get through before much better conditions later on


also shear may be increasing a bit in it's direct location but looks to be decreasing just out infront of it


P.S. Today is one of the best days in a while here in Antigua. The SAL is nearly non-existent

[gatorcane]

>>I think South Florida really needs to watch this system if it takes that path. Historically that is the scenario where South Florida gets hit from the East. A Building Bermuda high and a system that just skirts the islands to the north.

I think they do too. But I don't like South Florida getting hit from the east because that is often indicative of a dual-hit storm (anywhere from the Panhandle to South Central Louisiana). Insurance is bad enough. And so I asked the question of that poster in Pompano hoping that it was just some area-casting and possible fears rather than a strong hunch/gut feeling. Most of us in Louisiana and Florida have seen our insurance rates skyrocket. I'm waiting on the ex to finish our house destroyed in Katrina so she can buy me out. And that ain't gonna happen until sometime between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

Steve

A hit from a CAT 2+ in Florida or LA would be a huge blow to the state already dealing with extreme insurance cost.

[Chacor]

thanks skeetobite - I must have the backup one then, can you give me the other?

http://152.80.49.216/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi is the backup.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

what are my thoughts... check into nwhhc around 10:45... I'll be full of some very good news (sarcasm off)

Some very good news?!

[destruction92]

what are my thoughts... check into nwhhc around 10:45... I'll be full of some very good news (sarcasm off)

sarcasm off?

I think this means Derek is giving a lot of credence to the GFDL and UKMET solutions which are calling for the dissipation of 90L.
Now if he was sarcastic, then that would be bad.

[gatorcane]

what are my thoughts... check into nwhhc around 10:45... I'll be full of some very good news (sarcasm off)

Some very good news?!

no I think he means not so good news....that is how I took it

[Chacor]

Can we not go off-topic here? Derek was being sarcastic. Hence "Sarcasm off".

[colbroe]

Getting stronger 13/1145 UTC 11.8N 30.6W T2.0/2.0 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Weatherfreak14]

Im going to have to admit that the last Sat. frame on the system is not quite as impressive as it was but, in the next 15 min we will see if its TD4

[cpdaman]

just to let you guys know invest 91 has popped up west of cuba in yucatan channel

and this system is intresting due to it's potential but it's sooo far away i will check back after 91 (appetizer) reaches land probably as a tropical storm in two days.

[storms in NC]

Not looking to good. It Has a cold at this time.

[img=http://img404.imageshack.us/img404/4557/90lmu3.th.jpg]

[AtlanticWind]

.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WELL I GUESS I HAVE TO TALK ABOUT IT.
YEAH, THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. GFS
AND UKMET INSIST ON DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM, NOGAPS DOES`NT KNOW IT
IS THERE AND ECMWF KEEPS FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN RUNS. TOO
EARLY TO TELL HOW MUCH EFFECT, IF ANY, THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON
THE LOCAL AREA. BUT, AS OF THE LATEST RUN, GFS BUILDS A STRONG
ATLC RIDGE WESTWARD KEEPING THE SYSTEM S. OF THE ISLANDS AND
PASSING SOUTH OF CUBA SUNDAY EVENING. SHOULD THIS VERIFY, WE`LL BE
TOO FAR AWAY TO EXPERIENCE ANY DIRECT INFLUENCE, HOWEVER MODERATE
TO STRONG E/NE WIND FLOW BETWEEN THE SYSTEM AND THE ATLC RIDGE
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CONVERGENCE AND HENCE PRECIP AND WINDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. IN ANY CASE...CLOSE ATTENTION
SHOULD BE PAID TO THIS SYSTEM AS IT PROGRESSES WESTWARD THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC AND POSSIBLY CARIBBEAN THIS WEEK