INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

[HURAKAN]

WOW, i think this will develop xeasily with the heat content in the GOM.

Once the shear relaxes, hello Erin!!!

PS: "Erin" if TD4 becomes "Dean" before.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I think this is going to be a clump of rain all the way to the coast..That ULL is just way to strong..

[gatorcane]

I am surprised as well this came-up this quickly, but I imagine b/c of its proximity to land. If continues to clip along, then yes, it only has ~48 hours and won't have time to do too much, hopefully. Heat content is explosive in that region.

Water temps 86-88F

[Derek Ortt]

not quite enough time to intensify into anything major, IMO
More like some of the WGOM 2005 storms

[Weatherfreak14]

I agree with Derek, this does not have enough time to be anything major, but it might become Erin or Dean in the next day or so and could give Texas a soaking.

[Portastorm]

not quite enough time to intensify into anything major, IMO
More like some of the WGOM 2005 storms

Derek, I hope you're talking Gert or Jose and not Emily!

[Stormcenter]

So where is landfall going to be?

[vaffie]

In the last half an hour, its satellite presentation has improved tremendously, it has become much more symmetrical and circular. Very nice. http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

So where is landfall going to be?

If the models are right, then probably somewhere in south Texas. I just hope it does not stay on it's current path (as shown by the black dotted line)...

[Fego]

A sat loop until 11:45 UTC
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/burn/wf ... _last.html

[Sanibel]

A few of us were discussing a rotation seen on Cuban radar down there last night, but I would never put an invest on that mess. However, NRL did initialize right where we had our circulation. I defy anyone to look at the loops and place a center on that mess though. The ULL is still too close.

The bad thing here is the whole thing is shifting west in response to the ridge that will take 90L west. (Proof of the ridge and west track? Maybe?)

This once again has the bad feeling of a weak system clearing out the GOM for business and a strong system following up.

[KatDaddy]

Looks to place the Upper/Middle TX Coast into heaviest squalls.

[Normandy]

^Nah its got some good low level vorticity.

I agree though the ULL is far too close.

[lrak]

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/smmpt/estadosrm/c ... ancun.html

strong N winds

[HURAKAN]

Looking relatively good!!!

Pinar del Río, Cuba:


Cancún, México:


Radar images are not very good.

[Sjones]

Does anyone have any long run models pics of where this thing will end up at?

[CrazyC83]

In the last half an hour, its satellite presentation has improved tremendously, it has become much more symmetrical and circular. Very nice. http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

Could we have TD5 later today?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Does anyone have any long run models pics of where this thing will end up at?

I posed them a little further up the page. ATM, it looks like they nearly all show a S. Texas landfall.

[Stratosphere747]

Does anyone have any long run models pics of where this thing will end up at?

No long range models are needed, presuming this does not act like Claudette. Should be inland within a few days.

[Sjones]

Does anyone have any long run models pics of where this thing will end up at?

I posed them a little further up the page. ATM, it looks like they nearly all show a S. Texas landfall.

For some reason it's not showing up for me on my computer, guess that's why I didn't see it...do you have the link?