CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[astrosbaseball22]

i say TS at 5

[RL3AO]

Taking d-min into affect, I say TS at 11pm or 5am.

[Aquawind]

770
ABNT20 KNHC 131517
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON AUG 13 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INITIATED ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOUR...LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 520
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT
90 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CANCUN MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS THE LOW
MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNASSIANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT34 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES
ON THE DEPRESSION ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BLAKE

[destruction92]

Do you have any graphics for the predicted track?

[fci]

i say TS at 5

And you back this up with data such as -------------------????????????

[Regit]

Everyone remember that the topic of this thread is Tropical Depression Four.

If you have a problem with something other members are posting, take it to a PM or report the message to a staff member.

[HURAKAN]

Intensification should be slow as the system speeds across the Atlantic.

[HURAKAN]

I think everyone in the Windward Islands and Greater Antilles (especially the eastern islands) must start getting cold chills by the 5-track of the NHC.

Good luck to everyone.

[Evil Jeremy]

good to see your making forecasts again this year. I love reading your forecasts. You never leave anything out.

[cpdaman]

latest NHC discussion mentions a southerly component possible to movement over the next couple days. IMO this is good for S.FL

because although maybe it bends WNW with time (3-4 days or more) it will have to cross puerto rico or more likely dominican republic and cuba (if it even turns more wnw/nw) which is a big IF, and these land masses usually keep these storms from being major's when they reach land. good news for s fl bad news for northern caribean. but of course forecasts are subject to change but i think this development in short term track motion is significant

[destruction92]

the big question is how much WNW it goes towards the end...

it could mean all the world as far as a South Florida strike.

I think the majority of the people in this forum are more concerned about a Texas strike.

Right now, there is uncertainty of where this will go after 3-5 days.

Models initially had it north of the islands and the last few days tracking south of the islands into Yucatan/Mexico/ Western GOM.

Now, the first advisory shows a bending WNW towards Haiti and even the Southern Coast of PR if it is a little further North.

Please try to not to make comments like:
"I think the majority of the people in this forum are more concerned about a Texas strike".

If you live in Texas= true statement
If you live in Fl= Not a true statement

Unless of course you have statistics of active membership in S2K to validate your statement. If you do I will apollogize to you!

So, I am not going to get into a GOM vs. FL arguement which I doubt you intend to do either.
Let's just see.

No, definitely not. I was just making an observation based on reading the majority or at least a significant portion of the posts in the forum.

The Bermuda High's intensity and the timing of troughs is still uncertain so I am not ready to call anything off right now.

[gatorcane]

latest NHC discussion mentions a southerly component possible to movement over the next couple days. IMO this is good for S.FL

because although maybe it bends WNW with time (3-4 days or more) it will have to cross puerto rico or more likely dominican republic and cuba which usually keeps these storms from being major's when they reach land. good news for s fl bad news for northern caribean. but of course forecasts are subject to change but i think this development in short term track motion is significant

perhaps but there is huge uncertainty here.....that cone should change quite a bit over the next couple of days....

if the system intensifies rapidly it will want to go poleward and find weaknesses in the ridge.

[cheezyWXguy]

I think TD4 is maintaining okay, actually. Although deep convection is shrinking on the west side, its still there(for the moment) and the inflow bands on the south side are bringing convection up the east side.

Visible imagery:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[msbee]

Luis
I seem to have lost my bookmark for where I can find the models listed for TD4
can you please post the link?
thanks
Barbara

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

12z GFS is starting to roll.

[Aquawind]

Both systems now depicted..

[cycloneye]

Luis
I seem to have lost my bookmark for where I can find the models listed for TD4
can you please post the link?
thanks
Barbara

Here is the site.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots.html

Barbara prepare and be safe.

[Aquawind]

24 hrs..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_024m.gif

[miamicanes177]

12z GFS is significantly slower than the 6Z run thus far. Quite a big difference from just run to run.

EDIT: Could this be because the model now has the center located?

[swimaway19]

I used to have a bookmark, but can some one tell me where I can find the animated model runs for must of the major models? Thanks.