CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[HUC]

Hello to all! i'am watching very carrefully this one...A real threat for the central islands of the carribean..Will give you updates of the situation if necessary...

[HURAKAN]

I think TD4 is maintaining okay, actually. Although deep convection is shrinking on the west side, its still there(for the moment) and the inflow bands on the south side are bringing convection up the east side.

Visible imagery:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Agree. And it's bursting over the LLC ATM.

[miamicanes177]

I used to have a bookmark, but can some one tell me where I can find the animated model runs for must of the major models? Thanks.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[Aquawind]

87
NOUS42 KNHC 131530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT MON 13 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-082

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 14/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
C. 14/1700Z
D. 23.5N 91.0W
E. 14/1700Z TO 14/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 15/0900Z
B. AFXXX 02EEA CYCLONE
C. 15/0630Z
D. 25.0N 95.0W
E. 14/0730Z TO 14/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE FIX AT 15/1500Z.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: FIX TD 04 IN ATLANTIC
AT 16/1800Z NEAR 13.5N 52.5W.

[destruction92]

Extrapolating the tracks of GFDL suggests a Dominican Republic strike and extrapolating the tracks of the UKMET suggests a Puerto Rico strike.

Oh, here are the graphics I used for my "extrapolation"...if anyone sees something differently, please share your comments.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_04.gif

[tolakram]

Amateur observation.

Looking at the visible I was going to remark that it looked like the center was exposed on the E/SE side but now it appears the center might have re-located to the west, under the eastern side of the convection. This re-location seems to have interrupted intensification for a bit but now more storms are firing near where I think the new center is.

Any accuracy to my observation?

[storms in NC]

latest NHC discussion mentions a southerly component possible to movement over the next couple days. IMO this is good for S.FL

because although maybe it bends WNW with time (3-4 days or more) it will have to cross puerto rico or more likely dominican republic and cuba which usually keeps these storms from being major's when they reach land. good news for s fl bad news for northern caribean. but of course forecasts are subject to change but i think this development in short term track motion is significant

perhaps but there is huge uncertainty here.....that cone should change quite a bit over the next couple of days....

if the system intensifies rapidly it will want to go poleward and find weaknesses in the ridge.

I really would count on this intensifies rapidly. It will be slow. For it is have a time keep up. Just going to fast in my book.

[canegrl04]

NHC's 5 day cone has TD 4 positioned at 63 W,17N .Not good for the US if it pans out

[cycloneye]

36 hours

Slower in motion.

[CourierPR]

Amateur observation.

Looking at the visible I was going to remark that it looked like the center was exposed on the E/SE side but now it appears the center might have re-located to the west, under the eastern side of the convection. This re-location seems to have interrupted intensification for a bit but now more storms are firing near where I think the new center is.

Any accuracy to my observation?

My untrained eye sees the same thing.

[gocuse08]

If Tropical Depression 4 follows that 5 Day Track. It should weaken as it moves over land.

But remeber look at WHOLE cone

[CrazyC83]

Depending on 91L, this might be Erin and not Dean...

[cycloneye]

48 hours

[RL3AO]

If Tropical Depression 4 follows that 5 Day Track. It should weaken as it moves over land.

But remeber look at WHOLE cone

The only land it will approach in the five days are the islands and they won't do much for weakening.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Can some post 500

[Opal storm]

With this slower motion, the track could change dramatically. I would not let my guard down if I live along the E Atlantic coast/Bermuda.

[Stratosphere747]

Can some post 500

48hrs

[gocuse08]

When does the next report come in?

[gatorcane]

With this slower motion, the track could change dramatically. I would not let my guard down if I live along the E Atlantic coast.

I have never let my guard down.....

again anybody from Texas through Maine should watch this system...

and of course the islands will be watching...

[storms in NC]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

With this slower motion, the track could change dramatically. I would not let my guard down if I live along the E Atlantic coast/Bermuda.

I think the east coast is safe from Ga up. JMO



Edited by Regit to add disclaimer.