INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

[HURAKAN]

Finally two systems that didn't take a week of tracking (as invests) to become something:

[Extremeweatherguy]

It is really looking good this morning. JB seems to have nailed this!

[weatherguru18]

While this doesn't have the scary potential of TD4/Dean, this definitely has development potential, although being closer to land would reduce its ultimate potential.

Not so fast...did we forget Opal, Audrey, Brett, and countless others? Opal made it to Cat. 5 and the others I named were Cat. 4.

[Aquawind]

87
NOUS42 KNHC 131530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT MON 13 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-082

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 14/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
C. 14/1700Z
D. 23.5N 91.0W
E. 14/1700Z TO 14/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 15/0900Z
B. AFXXX 02EEA CYCLONE
C. 15/0630Z
D. 25.0N 95.0W
E. 14/0730Z TO 14/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE FIX AT 15/1500Z.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: FIX TD 04 IN ATLANTIC
AT 16/1800Z NEAR 13.5N 52.5W.

[HouTXmetro]

All Bets are off in the GOM if it avoids land.

[cpdaman]

to all the texans, let us know what the local mets in your area are saying/predicting

just to get an additional perspective

[KFDM Meteorologist]

With this system it would a mid to lower Texas coast Storm.

[CrazyC83]

TD5 at 5 pm?

[weatherrabbit_tx]

While this doesn't have the scary potential of TD4/Dean, this definitely has development potential, although being closer to land would reduce its ultimate potential.

Not so fast...did we forget Opal, Audrey, Brett, and countless others? Opal made it to Cat. 5 and the others I named were Cat. 4.

heaven forbid! but nevertheless it can happen!

[Extremeweatherguy]

The thing that concerns me is that even if this goes into the south or central TX coast, most of the weather may end up being displaced to the north..which means we might feel effects up here along the upper TX coast too.

[RL3AO]

TD5 at 5 pm?

I doubt it. They said it was just a broad area of low pressure.

[sevenleft]

While this doesn't have the scary potential of TD4/Dean, this definitely has development potential, although being closer to land would reduce its ultimate potential.

Not so fast...did we forget Opal, Audrey, Brett, and countless others? Opal made it to Cat. 5 and the others I named were Cat. 4.

Not with an ULL sitting on it.

[Sanibel]

The ULL is keeping it down. That's why it's shaped like that folks. The predicted track has it following the ULL towards the coast. Should keep it from strong formation if the ULL stays intact. (Which is why the GFS is showing a spread out storm).

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think the ULL is actually aiding in development at this point. It is not as close as it used to be. Shear is pretty low over the system and there is a downward tendancy...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[Aquawind]

48 hr GFS weakens the low as it comes inland.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Ridge to strong over S. Plains for an Upper Tx Coast storm.

[Sanibel]

The shape of the storm says otherwise. At that distance the ULL shears the storm both vertically and synoptically, though I admit the shear appears to be decreasing. We'll see who wins.

[weatherguru18]

While this doesn't have the scary potential of TD4/Dean, this definitely has development potential, although being closer to land would reduce its ultimate potential.

Not so fast...did we forget Opal, Audrey, Brett, and countless others? Opal made it to Cat. 5 and the others I named were Cat. 4.

Not with an ULL sitting on it.

True...BUT it can either hinder it with shear or aid it by ventilating it. Kind of a coin toss. I'll take the clouds at the moment to rid me of this 100+ degree heat!

[jasons2k]

It is really looking good this morning. JB seems to have nailed this!

Well, except that little part about taking out Houston

[cycloneye]

NOUS42 KNHC 131530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT MON 13 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-082

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 14/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
C. 14/1700Z
D. 23.5N 91.0W
E. 14/1700Z TO 14/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 15/0900Z
B. AFXXX 02EEA CYCLONE
C. 15/0630Z
D. 25.0N 95.0W
E. 14/0730Z TO 14/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE FIX AT 15/1500Z.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: FIX TD 04 IN ATLANTIC
AT 16/1800Z NEAR 13.5N 52.5W.