INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

[HouTXmetro]

currently the convection is weakening. I don't know what implications that has on the organization of the storm.

[El Nino]

Wow, a TD4 and anInvest the same day. Reminds me 2005 almost. Finally some action !
Good for a TD5 tomorrow morning I think.

[xironman]

The place I am looking for convection to pick up is just north of the Yucatan. If you look here http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... n&info=vis you can see a bit of a spin just off the northeast tip, very time dependent.

[wxman57]

I think this is going to become T.S. Erin in about 36-48 hours as it tracks generally toward the TX/MX border. Won't have a lot of time to organize before it moves inland late Wednesday, but could have sustained winds 60 mph by then. I now give it about a 70% shot at becoming a TS by tomorrow afternoon.

Just what I need, 2 storms at once. A decoy storm in the Gulf with the real threat in the Atlantic.

[srainhoutx]

I think this is going to become T.S. Erin in about 36-48 hours as it tracks generally toward the TX/MX border. Won't have a lot of time to organize before it moves inland late Wednesday, but could have sustained winds 60 mph by then. I now give it about a 70% shot at becoming a TS by tomorrow afternoon.

Just what I need, 2 storms at once. A decoy storm in the Gulf with the real threat in the Atlantic.

Thanks wxman57. I guess bike rides are out of the question for awhile. Keep us informed as you can.

[Frank2]

From what it appears, the current VIS loop shows the LLC scooting out from under the convection, and, moving due west in tandem with the ULL:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

if this continues it would lessen the chance of anything significant forming...

[Portastorm]

I was writing off the SHIPS suggestion but geez ... if the venerable 57 says 60 mph sustained is possible, this could end up providing a little excitement for the south Texas coast.

Hey 57, do you see the remnant low hanging around very long in south Texas?

[Frank2]

...not if it behaves as it's currently behaving (see my previous post)...

[PauleinHouston]

Interesting shot of Cancun radar site...circulation very noticeable there!!

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-canc.jpg

[WindRunner]

Well, glad they finally put an invest on this. The original LLC under the convection drifted inland into the Yucatan about two and a half days ago, and a new one formed up very early this morning (couple hours after midnight), with Cancun reporting NW wind, the buoy out there had winds suddenly shift to the SSW, and Cuba was reporting from the E. The convection has most certainly cleared up this morning and, as the upper low to the NNE of the system continues heading westward in the Gulf, it should allow conditions to become more favorable for organization in the short term. The NHC should take its time declaring this one as well, but if organization continues, they could declare at anytime from 11pm tonight onward.

[punkyg]

Yall see this already?

[Ptarmigan]

I think this is going to become T.S. Erin in about 36-48 hours as it tracks generally toward the TX/MX border. Won't have a lot of time to organize before it moves inland late Wednesday, but could have sustained winds 60 mph by then. I now give it about a 70% shot at becoming a TS by tomorrow afternoon.

Just what I need, 2 storms at once. A decoy storm in the Gulf with the real threat in the Atlantic.

Looks like Houston could get some rain from that blob, I hear 50% chance of rain by Wednesday. Like you said, I expect a tropical depression and storm. Regardless of what happens, it will give Texas and Mexico rain.

[Aric Dunn]

hmmmin.. interesting .. the LLC is has developed faster than i thought from earlier this morning .. sounds good wxman57

[RL3AO]

Well..we have TCFA.

[MGC]

LLCC clearly evident off the northern Yucatan. Shear from the ULL will hinder development somewhat. Good chance of this becoming a TD in a day or two and possibly a TS by the time it reaches the WGOM...MGC

[Stormcenter]

I'm not sure why some on this board keep
on thinking this won't amount to much if it
does develop. It still has a ton of water travel over
in the GOM before making landfall.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[HURAKAN]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html

91L now on float two.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I'm not sure why some on this board keep
on thinking this won't amount to much if it
does develop. It still has a ton of water travel over
in the GOM before making landfall.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Chances are it will remain weak, but I do agree that there is at least a slim possibility that this system decides to explode into a stronger storm. We will just have to wait and watch it closely. The sooner it develops, the higher the likelihood of it becoming stronger.

[punkyg]

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 131430Z AUG 07//
WTNT02 KNGU 131500Z
REF/A/RMG/NAVLANTMETOCCEN NORFOLK VA/131130Z AUG 07//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT21 KNGU 131200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.5N 86.3W TO 25.7N 92.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 131200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 21.8N 85.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 141500Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 30.0W
//

[Duddy]

Crap, that LLC looks like it's just chewing it up.