CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[tgenius]

I don't trust the models this far out (even though there was some agreement between them in previous runs) I am not liking the shift North for this storm; Then again, it is only a single run, but the simple fact that there is a possibility that mid next week Miami will have to deal with a storm isn't very encouraging.

[MiamiensisWx]

Can we stop these long-range model threads? The speculation is getting exhausting for me. I agree with the other posters - we should wait for a few days. We should have a better idea within five days. It would reduce the traffic by 90 percent. Good Lord, I do not want to see the numbers on this forum when we receive our first hurricane.

[Brent]

You're not the only one - (well not me, I don't drink) - we just broke our Katrina record for users online.

In total there are 440 users online :: 129 registered, 12 hidden and 299 guests
Most users ever online was 440 on Mon Aug 13, 2007 12:50 pm

WOW! I knew we'd break it but I thought it would be mid-week. This is at least 4 days from any land.

[vaffie]

If the current progs on Sepat verify, that 12z GFS run is ridiculously off.

https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp0907.gif

Steve

Please explain.

[Jam151]

It sounds like there may have been a trend in the GFS starting yesterday.

Since the ECMWF is no good today, this leaves us with the GFS. Unlike the ECMWF, the GFS has been remarkably consistent with this storm, even in the long-range, over the past few days. All the runs today take the storm westward through the Caribbean Sea, into the Gulf of Mexico, and a final destination of Mexico/extreme southern Texas next week. However, there is another possible scenario based on these very runs. The GFS has notably been trending weaker and further east with the expected mid-level ridge north of this system while in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Moreover, the past two runs have featured a 500mb weakness over the Bahamas during this timeframe, with the 18Z run depicting an especially defined weakness. For whatever reason, the model does not see this as strong enough to pull the tropical cyclone northward. However, the trend is your friend, and this is an important trend to watch. If the weakness becomes more defined, then it would steer the cyclone northward into or just east of the Bahamas. Afterwards, it would be far enough north to feel the influence of the larger mid-level trough over the northeast US and Canadian maritimes that most global models indicate will be present at the time. Thus, the storm would continue northward and remain offshore the east coast of the US. It should be noted that the UKMET also shows this feature by Day 6, but that's as far as the model runs so it is uncertain how it would interact with the tropical cyclone. Again, the other scenario that is more supported by models at the moment is a continued westward motion bringing the storm into the Gulf of Mexico. If that occurs, one cannot pinpoint a specific Gulf location to be the target, although early synoptic reasoning suggests Mexico or Texas would be the most likely to be impacted. There is still plenty of time to watch this developing system.

http://www.independentwx.com/discussion

[Steve]

>>Can we stop these long-range model threads?

Not gonna happen. It's legit topics of conversation for now. Plus everyone gets to play. Down the road, and you've been around here long enough to know, it's going to turn into my state vs. your state hit-homerism.

[Wx_Warrior]

Same here..im soooo sick of people always targeting a Texas strike.

Let's wait for the EURO at 2pm.

[Opal storm]

Can we stop these long-range model threads? I agree with the other posters - we should wait for a few days. It would reduce the traffic by 90 percent. Good Lord, I do not want to see the numbers on this forum when we receive our first hurricane.

Right now it's mostly just for fun, I don't think anybody is taking thses long range forecasts seriously.

[CronkPSU]

Can we stop these long-range model threads? The speculation is getting exhausting for me. I agree with the other posters - we should wait for a few days. We should have a better idea within five days. It would reduce the traffic by 90 percent. Good Lord, I do not want to see the numbers on this forum when we receive our first hurricane.

why wouldn't we be talking about long range models in the global model thread...did I miss something?

[brunota2003]

Interesting...it stalls over the GS for a little bit, brushes Eastern NC and Hatteras takes nearly a direct hit (Like Hurricane Alex) and then shoots it up the coast towards NYC...Is it time to run the GFS again? I'm ready for the next round!

[MWatkins]

The slower forward speed early in the run seems dubious..and opens the door for TD4 to get picked up by the trough (in the model)...although the thing going right between 2 building 594DM ridges seems just as dubious later in the fcst period.

The GFS did this 2 days ago as well...then the next run was into Mexico.

Way....way...way too early to tell which of the islands gets to deal with what will probably be a significant hurricane in 5 days.

MW

[cycloneye]

told you... in the 500mb map, there is a weakness between the 2 ridges and it runs the coast.... wow... huge change from yesterday... interesting week ahead


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Jesse,work for the chasing team right?

[MiamiensisWx]

Right now it's mostly just for fun, I don't think anybody is taking thses long range forecasts seriously.

why wouldn't we be talking about long range models in the global model thread...did I miss something?

Jesse and everyone, I wanted to clarify my position. I was joking. These threads are good for analyses. I think these threads are good to monitor trends and the upper-air pattern. I was just pointing at the number of people posting in this forum. I could barely post my thoughts!

[vacanechaser]

Can we stop these long-range model threads? The speculation is getting exhausting for me. I agree with the other posters - we should wait for a few days. We should have a better idea within five days. It would reduce the traffic by 90 percent. Good Lord, I do not want to see the numbers on this forum when we receive our first hurricane.

well, that is what the thread is for... discussion of the long range models... thats what we do... most here understand that it is going to change... and change it will.... ut we like to follow the runs and learn as we go with each passing run.... i dont understand what the problem is... just dont read the thread then...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[CronkPSU]

>>Can we stop these long-range model threads?

Not gonna happen. It's legit topics of conversation for now. Plus everyone gets to play. Down the road, and you've been around here long enough to know, it's going to turn into my state vs. your state hit-homerism.

and a hundred posts like these

DEAN JUST WOBBLED NORTH BY NORTH WEST!!!!

[DESTRUCTION5]

The slower forward speed early in the run seems dubious..and opens the door for TD4 to get picked up by the trough (in the model)...although the thing going right between 2 building 594DM ridges seems just as dubious later in the fcst period.

The GFS did this 2 days ago as well...then the next run was into Mexico.

Way....way...way too early to tell which of the islands gets to deal with what will probably be a significant hurricane in 5 days.

MW

Thurs show should be a good on MW!!!

[vacanechaser]

told you... in the 500mb map, there is a weakness between the 2 ridges and it runs the coast.... wow... huge change from yesterday... interesting week ahead


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Jesse,work for the chasing team right?

that is correct.. of course we would go where ever we needed to... but it is always interesting to see it in your backyard so to speak...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[gocuse08]

long range models arent going to be right most of the time

[Cyclone1]

I'm not sure this will become Dean... from the looks of that Yucatan low, this could become Erin if it doesn't hurry up. O_O

[ronjon]

Well, the 00Z Euro has a solid 594 dm Ridge spread across the central Atlantic ocean to the desert SW from 7 to 9 days out. If this is true, I don't see this storm plowing through that. I put more trust in the medium range upper air pattern in the Euro versus the GFS (as does the HPC).

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2007081300!!/