CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Derek Ortt]

Flossie is probably going to be the main story in the news for a while, not this one. TWC was focusing on Flossie and it is now their lead story on their website.

May mean considerably less hype until after Flossie does what it does and if that is bad... be assurred this will be hyped more than Rita

[CronkPSU]

Most models now showing a WNW path...

So far i like the BAMD model which one do yall like?

XTRP

[storms in NC]

I am so sorry but every time to see the name Flossie I see cows flying around. It fit a cows name to me I guess cause we had cows and one was Flossie. can't get it out of my head.

[destruction92]

I think the odds are in our favor...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

Whose favor? Hurricane Allen is the farthest left track...it is an outlier. The Southeast coast is in the middle of the range of error.

[artist]

I remember the Bam models are good in certain circumstances - can someone that know remind me? Was it supposed to be the deep tropics or closer to land? I just can't remember.

[MWatkins]

GFDL is out:

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/07081317

Slower as well (here is the previous run):

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/07081311

If this is valid we should see almost an immediate slowdown in forward speed to 12 to 15 knots.

If TD 4 keeps plowing ahead at 17 or 18 knots then the slower track idea may be just a GFS hiccup (remember GFDL is run against the GFS background).

MW

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFDL is out:

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/07081317

Slower as well (here is the previous run):

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/07081311

If this is valid we should see almost an immediate slowdown in forward speed to 12 to 15 knots.

If TD 4 keeps plowing ahead at 17 or 18 knots then the slower track idea may be just a GFS hiccup (remember GFDL is run against the GFS background).

MW

Def gaining Lat here..

[weatherguru18]

I think the odds are in our favor...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

Whose favor? Hurricane Allen is the farthest left track...it is an outlier. The Southeast coast is in the middle of the range of error.

Western Gulf and the U.S. in general. Most ended up being fish. But obviously this could very well be an "outlier." I personally believe that past weather records can give clues to todays potential crisis'.

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah, I will be watching the storm speed closely. ATM, I do not see this sudden slowdown taking place. The latest GFS (and GFDL..which is influenced by the GFS) is probably out of touch with reality on this latest run. We will see though..

[skufful]

Most models now showing a WNW path...

So far i like the BAMD model which one do yall like?

XTRP

XTRP is not a model. Track if it stayed on its current heading.

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah, XTRP is the direction it is moving now...WSW

[artist]

Up the east coast... North Carolina

Scorpion - where did you get that?? If you are kidding could you add the disclaimer - that could scare the beegeebies out of someone if they don't know better!

ok - I see where they have in the title the Carolinas - isn't that a little early to be saying that? Just my opinion. And here is a graphic of what the spaghetti models show - none of them show that either - are you talking longer range models? Sorry, this is just the way I feel. S2K will have to decide if they don't mind having it like this.

[clevelandindians]

its moving west south west??

[storms in NC]

I can see it slowing down. When it get closer to the west about 50 or so you will see it slow right on down.

[JTD]

We need to watch these model shifs very carefully. They may be onto something. Remember the drastic shift north for Hurricane Ernesto last season, which turned out to verify.

The 18Z and 0000z runs should tell the tale. Also, climatology would argue against this CV storm just plowing due west across the Atlantic.

And, actually, however unlikely at this point, I wouldn't even rule out a recurve out to sea at this point.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

The following post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm NOT likeing the BAMD, but my gut says its the one that will probably happen. Hopefully beyond the end of BAMD, theres a sharp turn to the north and "a fishin' potential Dean will go".

[destruction92]

I think the odds are in our favor...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

Whose favor? Hurricane Allen is the farthest left track...it is an outlier. The Southeast coast is in the middle of the range of error.

Western Gulf and the U.S. in general. Most ended up being fish. But obviously this could very well be an "outlier." I personally believe that past weather records can give clues to todays potential crisis'.

"Western Gulf and the U.S." seems to mean just about anywhere along the U.S. coastline with emphasis on Tx. I fail to follow your drift. This system could very well go to Bermuda or Panama...The odds favor it being a fish...I don't see where your reasoning is in repeatedly calling for a "western gulf" or Allen-like scenario.

I think it's okay to speculate as long as you give some reasoning instead of gut feelings.

[wx247]

I am sure Cronk knew that. He was responding to the question asked, hence the LOL.

[storms in NC]

Well if it get to SC I will bring out the boat and tie it up to the deck

[x-y-no]

I remember the Bam models are good in certain circumstances - can someone that know remind me? Was it supposed to be the deep tropics or closer to land? I just can't remember.

Deep tropics is where the BAMs do well.