CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[EyELeSs1]

wow...a huge shift northward with this last run?? is there a weakness we are not seeing or do you guys think this is just a temporary shift??

Also anyone seen any of the intensity forecasts from the model output with this recent shift northward?

[windstorm99]

Just updated JEFF MASTERS take on the models...

What the models say
Several major models--the ECMWF and NOGAPS--do not develop TD 4 at all. The GFS, UKMET, and new HWRF model all develop the system, and bring it to a strong tropical storm or hurricane by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. The big question is how strong the trough of low pressure predicted to pass north of TD 4 on Friday will be. If the trough is stronger than currently forecast, it may be able to pull TD 4 far enough north so that it misses the Lesser Antilles. This would be good for the islands, but potentially bad for the U.S. East Coast. The trough will likely not be strong enough to recurve TD 4 harmlessly out to sea, and the storm would then be forced westwards again by the next ridge of high pressure. A landfall along the U.S. East Coast as a hurricane--possibly a major hurricane--could result, unless the next trough of low pressure is strong enough to recurve the storm out to sea. The latest (12Z) runs of the GFS and UKMET models both have TD 4 passing through or just north of the Lesser Antilles Islands. What may happen after 5 days is highly uncertain. Last night's GFS model run had TD 4 eventually making landfall south of Brownsville, Texas. This morning's run had it hitting New England--a difference of about 2000 mies in landfall location

[ronjon]

North on last frame!

The UKMET? Actually a little more W-NW the last 12 hrs. 1.5 deg N, 2.4 deg W versus 1.5 deg N, 2.2 deg W the previous 12 hrs. Not a big difference though.

[jasons2k]

I think the northward shift is bogus. The models aren't handling the ridge well at all. I see no reason why this won't be a Caribbean storm.

[clevelandindians]

I think the northward shift is bogus. The models aren't handling the ridge well at all. I see no reason why this won't be a Caribbean storm.

agree i like the NHC path

[Lowpressure]

I agree with a more WNW track at the end of the run, but not to that degree. The ridge is quite strong. It appears models are differing on the location and strength on the western periphery of the ridge. That weakness makes all the difference. Do not see this as a GOM threat. Northern Leewards and points to DR/SE Bahamas look to be a bigger threat.

[cycloneye]

The question becomes:Will NHC follow the 12z models change of tracks in the 5 PM advisory?

[Category 5]

I don't like this
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 36_l.shtml

[clevelandindians]

i expect this system to move west then move west-north-west. as far as the path i agree with NHC

[storms in NC]

wow...a huge shift northward with this last run?? is there a weakness we are not seeing or do you guys think this is just a temporary shift??

Also anyone seen any of the intensity forecasts from the model output with this recent shift northward?

Just keep a eye and ears out down there and don't go by the models they are just a guide line. I would make sure you have every thing you need today!. I don't want to scare you but it is coming very close to you all. You will still get rain and wind with out a hit so to speck. I wish you all the luck in the world and my prayers go you all down there, Keep safe.
Deb

[caribepr]

horrible news!

I know my friend in Antigua.But these models will flip-flop in tracks with every run.What we have to watch is the system itself how it is moving and lets forget about the models.

I'm on the same page with you, Luis. It will do what it will do and we need to do our part; be prepared & keep an eye on the actual system. Of course, I'll be reading everything you post! (off topic, the governor was here today - pretty interesting)

[Lowpressure]

The out take from Jeff Masters discussion says it best- models moved 2000 miles.
It is not certain at all here- do not try to speculate too hard. Watch and learn and be glad we have something to discuss/track.

[gatorcane]

I think the northward shift is bogus. The models aren't handling the ridge well at all. I see no reason why this won't be a Caribbean storm.

agree i like the NHC path

climatology my friend...this time of year and that far out most of the time these storms favor South Florida or the EC...or are fish..

[DESTRUCTION5]

The question becomes:Will NHC follow the 12z models change of tracks in the 5 PM advisory?

Yes and i say they have it heading right at PR on a WNW heading..

[EyELeSs1]

12z gfs seems like such a huge shift? am i missing something maybe?

[HURAKAN]

Latest!!!

[Scorpion]

I don't see this busting through that high... Florida seems the most likely target for now

[windstorm99]

The NHC will probably shift there track a bit north with a blend of the GFS and the GFDL model.

[Wx_Warrior]

Everyone has their likes/dislikes and opinions and thats why I love this board.

I am not going to hinge on NHC either, I learned the hard way during Rita once she was in the GOM.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

They will.