CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[gatorcane]

NHC will likely move their track north some towards the end with the cone being over the Bahamas and probably pointing at South Florida -- boy will that get people ancy here...

however I urge everybody from the islands to Texas up to Maine to watch this thing...we really can't predict where it will go more than about 5 days out......

climatology says South Florida or SE Coast of US but more fish than anything...but who knows.

[gatorcane]

I don't see this busting through that high... Florida seems the most likely target for now

Yes but I'd rather be the target now...chances are it will change a dozen times in the next week....so being in the cone now is better than later...

of course South Florida is nearly always in the cone with an approaching system entering the Herbert box.

[Sanibel]

UKMET doesn't leave Florida out as a possibility.
Trend is poleward.

[Extremecane]

where do you get those images

[miamicanes177]

The question becomes:Will NHC follow the 12z models change of tracks in the 5 PM advisory?

No they will keep it steady state. They have in the past not be in favor of making large track shifts based on one model run. We need to see 2-3 more runs to confirm the track change.

[Bgator]

I cant wait for channel 7 here in Miami to start there cheesy intros, and over dramatic news reporting it makes me laugh... "Tracking TD 4" than they will show that it will be near us to get the media hype going.

[clfenwi]

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1840 UTC MON AUG 13 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR (AL042007) 20070813 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        070813  1800   070814  0600   070814  1800   070815  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.9N  32.3W   12.4N  34.9W   12.8N  37.7W   12.9N  40.8W
BAMD    11.9N  32.3W   12.0N  35.8W   12.1N  39.2W   11.9N  42.7W
BAMM    11.9N  32.3W   12.3N  35.5W   12.7N  38.9W   12.7N  42.6W
LBAR    11.9N  32.3W   11.8N  35.8W   12.0N  39.8W   12.3N  44.0W
SHIP        30KTS          35KTS          38KTS          45KTS
DSHP        30KTS          35KTS          38KTS          45KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        070815  1800   070816  1800   070817  1800   070818  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.0N  44.4W   13.2N  51.8W   13.7N  57.3W   15.5N  60.6W
BAMD    11.9N  46.2W   11.4N  52.9W   10.6N  57.1W   12.1N  59.5W
BAMM    12.6N  46.4W   11.7N  53.8W   10.7N  58.2W   12.4N  59.7W
LBAR    12.8N  48.5W   12.6N  56.3W   14.7N  54.8W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        50KTS          63KTS          73KTS          75KTS
DSHP        50KTS          63KTS          73KTS          75KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.9N LONCUR =  32.3W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR =  17KT
LATM12 =  12.2N LONM12 =  28.9W DIRM12 = 264DEG SPDM12 =  18KT
LATM24 =  12.4N LONM24 =  25.6W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I hope this doesn't pull another Frances or Jeane path. That really sucked for a lot of Floridians. It screwed up my life for a few days anyway.

[x-y-no]

12z ECMWF initializes it very weak:




And weaker still at 24 hours:

[gatorcane]

I cant wait for channel 7 here in Miami to start there cheesy intros, and over dramatic news reporting it makes me laugh... "Tracking TD 4" than they will show that it will be near us to get the media hype going.

Yes, I suspect starting tonight the hype will build here in metro South Florida -- although the system is over 1000 miles away.

[Opal storm]

Last night's GFS model run had TD 4 eventually making landfall south of Brownsville, Texas. This morning's run had it hitting New England--a difference of about 2000 mies in landfall location

And that's why we shouldn't even be taking any of these long range forecasts seriously until at least it gets to the islands. For all we know it could be back at Mexico tomorrow morning.

[cycloneye]

Distint from the global models,the Bams go west.

[storms in NC]

The question becomes:Will NHC follow the 12z models change of tracks in the 5 PM advisory?

To tell you the truth I really don't think they have a good handle on this yet.Why? Because it is going to fast for it to develop into any thing more than a TD. So you will see models swing back and forth. Just my two cents.

[cheezyWXguy]

Latest!!!

Looks like the center is on the eastern edge of the newest flare up. But look to the east of the center, notice the convection wrapping around the back of the system, like I said. On top of that, it looks like new convection is starting to pop in different areas around the system. Its definately maintaining strength, though very unlikely that its strengthening at this point. TD at 5. The D-max could come around in time to produce a bif burst around the center, just in time for the 11PM advisory tonight

[gatorcane]

Agreed but I've seen many times where the GFS starts out pegging a spot, then it changes, then the storm ends up going where the GFS originally had it...

The GFS originally called for a South Florida hit several days ago and not just on one run...

[miamicanes177]

12z ECMWF 120 Hours

[cheezyWXguy]

The question becomes:Will NHC follow the 12z models change of tracks in the 5 PM advisory?

To tell you the truth I really don't think they have a good handle on this yet.Why? Because it is going to fast for it to develop into any thing more than a TD. So you will see models swing back and forth. Just my two cents.

Development isnt directly hindered by it moving too fast. Its hindered by the easterly shear thats stronger in the mid levels than in the lower levels. Therefore, the clouds are being pushed to the west, not the east. Infact, it would actually have to speed up to neutralize the easterly shear

[Scorpion]

Agreed but I've seen many times where the GFS starts out pegging a spot, then it changes, then the storm ends up going where the GFS originally had it...

The GFS originally called for a South Florida hit several days ago and not just on one run...

I agree... sometimes the GFS is right from day 1

[clevelandindians]

The question becomes:Will NHC follow the 12z models change of tracks in the 5 PM advisory?

To tell you the truth I really don't think they have a good handle on this yet.Why? Because it is going to fast for it to develop into any thing more than a TD. So you will see models swing back and forth. Just my two cents.

agree.

[cycloneye]

The 18:00 UTC Tropical Models tracks.Going west.