CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Scorpion]

At 5 the NHC will probably shift a little further north, probably directly hitting Puerto Rico

[Opal storm]

Agreed but I've seen many times where the GFS starts out pegging a spot, then it changes, then the storm ends up going where the GFS originally had it...

The GFS originally called for a South Florida hit several days ago and not just on one run...

I agree... sometimes the GFS is right from day 1

Would this theory have anything to do with the fact you both live in FL?

[windstorm99]

The 18:00 UTC Tropical Models tracks.Going west.

You mean WNW...Dont see any shift towards the west there.

[cycloneye]

I was comparing these to the much norrthward tracks of the globals.

[brunota2003]

The 3 BAM's and LBAR are going west...the GFDL [12z] takes it wsw/w then curves it up, if I'm reading the right line.

[windstorm99]

Agreed but I've seen many times where the GFS starts out pegging a spot, then it changes, then the storm ends up going where the GFS originally had it...

The GFS originally called for a South Florida hit several days ago and not just on one run...

I agree... sometimes the GFS is right from day 1

Would this theory have anything to do with the fact you both live in FL?

You also live in florida...And guess what i do to lol.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Those new model runs are pretty comical. The BAMs move this WSW and then all of the sudden (for probably no reason at all) turn the storm NW. The LBAR takes the cake for the weirdest track though. If that played out, then lots of people would be scratching their heads as the storm suddenly stopped, turned back east, stopped again and then went NW.

[gtsmith]

12z ECMWF 120 Hours

that low behind it (to the east) - would that be the current system coming off of africa now?

[Brent]

I expect a slight northward and a little slower track at 5(probably a 5-day point near PR or the Virgin Islands), they will not make any big changes based on one run.

Oh and guess what's on the History Channel right now? A documentary on the Long Island Express!

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Check out the nortward bend at the end of the track

[Opal storm]

Those new model runs are pretty comical. The BAMs move this WSW and then all of the sudden (for probably no reason at all) turn the storm NW. The LBAR takes the cake for the weirdest track though. If that played out, then lots of people would be scratching their heads as the storm suddenly stopped, turned back east, stopped again and then went NW.

It all depends on how the models are judging the strength of that ridge.

[gatorcane]

Those new model runs are pretty comical. The BAMs move this WSW and then all of the sudden (for probably no reason at all) turn the storm NW. The LBAR takes the cake for the weirdest track though. If that played out, then lots of people would be scratching their heads as the storm suddenly stopped, turned back east, stopped again and then went NW.

Looks like models are sniffing out a trough...that would keep this FAR away from texas

[Stratosphere747]

The GFDL run is based on the earlier GFS run, which is quite dubious. Then again most long range models could be consider the same.

[jasons2k]

I weigh the synoptics much, much, much more heavily than climatology. If you weigh climatology that much you might as well use the CLIPER.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Those new model runs are pretty comical. The BAMs move this WSW and then all of the sudden (for probably no reason at all) turn the storm NW. The LBAR takes the cake for the weirdest track though. If that played out, then lots of people would be scratching their heads as the storm suddenly stopped, turned back east, stopped again and then went NW.

Looks like models are sniffing out a trough...that would keep this FAR away from texas

A trough affecting this while it was down near Tabago? lol. I don't think so. That sucker would have to amplify pretty good to turn it north from down there. The BAM scenarios look almost impossible, IMO.

[tolakram]

I wanted to freeze this image. I hope that's not a sign that this is going to be one huge storm, but it sure looks like it's pulling in everything but the kitchen sink.

[Steve H.]

Interesting tidbit from the daily HPC DISCO:

What effect, if any will the east coast cold front have, and will there be a "handover" from the central Atlantic high to the Canadien high after day 6
...WESTERN UNITED STATES...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION HOT AND DRY THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHERE A
MARITIME POLAR AIRMASS WILL BE HELD IN PLACE BY A STRONG OFFSHORE
TROUGH. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE CASCADES
WESTWARD BY DAY 6 AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MAKES SOME PROGRESS TOWARD
THE CONTINENT.

...CENTRAL UNITED STATES...
THE POLAR FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WILL AFFORD
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS THIS PERIOD. TEXAS WILL ALSO BE WET DAYS 3
AND 4...COURTESY OF A RICH INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

...EASTERN UNITED STATES...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES DAYS 4 AND 5. IN ITS WAKE...A
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EAST. WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL SHOULD BEGIN
DAY 7 AS THE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC.

[Scorpion]

It's nice to see that its pulling in lots of moisture... should strengthen some once it reaches 45 W

[clevelandindians]

Those new model runs are pretty comical. The BAMs move this WSW and then all of the sudden (for probably no reason at all) turn the storm NW. The LBAR takes the cake for the weirdest track though. If that played out, then lots of people would be scratching their heads as the storm suddenly stopped, turned back east, stopped again and then went NW.

Looks like models are sniffing out a trough...that would keep this FAR away from texas

A trough affecting this while it was down near Tabago? lol. I don't think so. That sucker would have to amplify pretty good to turn it north from down there. The BAM scenarios look almost impossible, IMO.

so this wont turn north?

[gatorcane]

Those new model runs are pretty comical. The BAMs move this WSW and then all of the sudden (for probably no reason at all) turn the storm NW. The LBAR takes the cake for the weirdest track though. If that played out, then lots of people would be scratching their heads as the storm suddenly stopped, turned back east, stopped again and then went NW.

Looks like models are sniffing out a trough...that would keep this FAR away from texas

A trough affecting this while it was down near Tabago? lol. I don't think so. That sucker would have to amplify pretty good to turn it north from down there. The BAM scenarios look almost impossible, IMO.

The BAMS are horrible with troughs....the globals are counting on this thing slowing down and gaining some lattitude as it approaches the islands in a general W to WNW movement....

a WSW movement for any length of time is not likely....the BAMS are overdoing the ridge...

climatology says no also..

there are many reasons agains it going that far south.