CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[MWatkins]

12Z Euro is in agreement with the GFS, UKMET and most everything else...the timeline will slow down some.

However, the Euro also shows a big west coast trough digging down by the 6 to 10 day time period...and the result of a large, digging west coast trough is a predictable one: building east coast/Western Atlantic ridge.

Of course there is plenty of time for the details to change...but this trend in all of the models suggests that the Greater Antillies need to start watching this closely if they aren't already.

MW

[gatorcane]

I wanted to freeze this image. I hope that's not a sign that this is going to be one huge storm, but it sure looks like it's pulling in everything but the kitchen sink.

yep and the global models are counting on it gaining some lattitude and wanting to go poleward as it starts to deepen.

NHC should shift slightly right at the end of the run with the cone pointing at South Florida and the Bahamas....just my opinion.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like models are sniffing out a trough...that would keep this FAR away from texas

A trough affecting this while it was down near Tabago? lol. I don't think so. That sucker would have to amplify pretty good to turn it north from down there. The BAM scenarios look almost impossible, IMO.

so this wont turn north?

I didn't say that. It very well could turn north..but not in the fashion that the BAM runs show. It would take a drastic change in the expected upper level conditions by days 4-6 to pull something like that off. If this is going to turn north (which I don't believe it will), then it will probably do it in a way similar to what the GFDL is showing.

[clevelandindians]

so will this go on the NHC track or more north?

[gatorcane]

youve got to look at the cone and not the line....

[cycloneye]

Is NOGAPS still sleeping with this?

[Extremeweatherguy]

so will this go on the NHC track or more north?

I don't have the skill level (nor do most) to give you an answer here. It may go north, it may go south, it may stay the same. Time will tell. For now though, I would rely on whatever the NHC is saying as they are your best bet for accurate information 99% of the time.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro is in agreement with the GFS, UKMET and most everything else...the timeline will slow down some.

However, the Euro also shows a big west coast trough digging down by the 6 to 10 day time period...and the result of a large, digging west coast trough is a predictable one: building east coast/Western Atlantic ridge.

Of course there is plenty of time for the details to change...but this trend in all of the models suggests that the Greater Antillies need to start watching this closely if they aren't already.

MW

Mike you want to speculate on a Florida hit probability yet thereafter? Climatologically speaking storms along the northern periphery of the Antilles can sneak up on South Florida from the east....Gosh I hope this thing stays away...we don't need it.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

EURO 240 HRS

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7081012!!/

[gatorcane]

EURO 240 HRS

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7081012!!/

approaching South Florida as a SIGNIFICANT system

Holy crap!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Next TUE EURO 500

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7081300!!/

[miamicanes177]

Is NOGAPS still sleeping with this?

NOGAPS is a NOGO. But we already have a tropical depression so that means it was wrong up to this point.

[RL3AO]

Interesting that convection is building over the center during what is almost diurnal minimum

[KFDM Meteorologist]

EURO 500 Next Thur.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7081300!!/

[hsvwx]

EURO 240 HRS

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7081012!!/

This is from last Friday, note the initialization time. The Euro no longer shows such a strong system. Actually keeps it relatively weak on its track across the Atlantic.

[storms in NC]

EURO 240 HRS

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7081012!!/

approaching South Florida as a SIGNIFICANT system

Holy crap!

No not really. if you remember Floyd rode up the coast of fla and only about 100 miles off shore and went to NC

[gatorcane]

GFS and Euro are coming into more agreement that this thing will be getting dangerously close to South Florida....hopefully these models change.....

recall these models have picked South Florida on prior runs several days ago...

this is going to get really interesting...

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7081300!!/

Here you go, next Thur.

[windstorm99]

Not sure whats going on but when i clicked on the ECMWF site iam still getting the 00z run?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7081300!!/

500 next Thur.