CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[hsvwx]

All of these Euro images being provided are from 00z, and the one I noted earlier is from last Friday. The Euro website still has not updated to 12z yet.

Question...So why do we have 12z posted on the thread?

That was a good question. But the 12z is now available and has been posted. So I guess the point is moot now.

[windstorm99]

Does not do to much with it other then bringing north of the islands and in the gerenal direction of the east coast as a weak system.

[canegrl04]

I cant wait for channel 7 here in Miami to start there cheesy intros, and over dramatic news reporting it makes me laugh... "Tracking TD 4" than they will show that it will be near us to get the media hype going.

LOL - you aren't kiddin! I was kind of surprised they weren't already starting with it this morning as a potential threat...would give them at least a week of hype

Wait till Fox news Channel gets wind of TS Dean

[JPmia]

EURO 240 HRS

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7081012!!/

approaching South Florida as a SIGNIFICANT system

Holy crap!

LOL

Well, I feel much better now...I've been around here long enough to know that every year the models nail South FL about every other storm and then the storm goes somewhere else.

Caribepr & Cycloneye, watch out down there...you guys haven't had action for quite a few years. Good luck as this looks like a threat to you or at least some kind of action. Btw, curious, do they evacuate Vieques and Culebra for big storms? Been to both and they are rather remote.

[Wx_Warrior]

EURO has TX/LA strike....WOW...Brownsville, TX/LA, East Coast...Any other guesses?

[MiamiensisWx]

Personally, I think we may observe more organization within the next 24 hours. I would not be surprised if we observe the formation of a tropical storm over the next two to three days. Latest visible images indicate a persistent convective burst has been occurring very near (or over) the LLC. Additionally, low-level inflow has been becoming much better defined in all quadrants, including the eastern sides (where dry air and easterly shear initially inhibited convection). This indicates a slower forward motion as the fast easterly flow relaxes across the area. I think it represents an increasingly favorable environment ahead of TD 4.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

Its presentation has been drastically improving over the past few hours.

You can clearly detect the changing structure of TD 4. Note the larger expanse of the circulation. This trend can precede the formation of a conducive upper-air and low-level environment, which would allow sfc convergence and convection over the LLC. This is the first key step toward a mature tropical cyclone, and it is a classic representative of the "favorable" deep tropics regime during the peak CV months (August and September). I think we could see Dean very soon - additionally, the larger structure could affect the rate of development, especially if conditions improve (very likely) over the next 24 hours.

I think the larger size could play a role in TD 4's eventual path, too. The reduction in its forward speed could allow the trough to move out of the area. On the other hand, the larger size could initiate a larger weakness in the mid-level ridge. It largely depends on the influence of shortwaves and the strength/expanse of the Plains ridge over the next several days.

What do you think?

[artist]

I thought the Euro has FL. I am soooo confused! First i click on the Euro it has it hitting around WPB and now it has it going near the straits, yet someone else says it has it going to TX/LA? What gives?

[Scorpion]

I thought the Euro has FL. I am soooo confused! First i click on the Euro it has it hitting around WPB and now it has it going near the straits, yet someone else says it has it going to TX/LA? What gives?

Thats an old Euro run

[Scorpion]

Excellent post, I agree the storm looks to be expanding a bit

[KFDM Meteorologist]

New Euro run is posted. Has Low crossing S. FL and headed NW.

[HURAKAN]

Night is arriving.

[gatorcane]

Personally, I think we may observe more organization within the next 24 hours. I would not be surprised if we observe the formation of a tropical storm over the next two to three days. Latest visible images indicate a persistent convective burst has been occurring very near (or over) the LLC. Additionally, low-level inflow has been becoming much better defined in all quadrants, including the eastern sides (where dry air and easterly shear initially inhibited convection). This indicates a slower forward motion as the fast easterly flow relaxes across the area. I think it represents an increasingly favorable environment ahead of TD 4.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

Its presentation has been drastically improving over the past few hours.

You can clearly detect the changing structure of TD 4. Note the larger expanse of the circulation. This trend can precede the formation of a conducive upper-air and low-level environment, which would allow sfc convergence and convection over the LLC. This is the first key step toward a mature tropical cyclone, and it is a classic representative of the "favorable" deep tropics regime during the peak CV months (August and September). I think we could see Dean very soon - additionally, the larger structure could affect the rate of development, especially if conditions improve (very likely) over the next 24 hours.

I think the larger size could play a role in TD 4's eventual path, too. The reduction in its forward speed could allow the trough to move out of the area. On the other hand, the larger size could initiate a larger weakness in the mid-level ridge. It largely depends on the influence of shortwaves and the strength/expanse of the Plains ridge over the next several days.

What do you think?

I think we have a monster developing and nobody knows where it is going to go....the next 10 days is going to be a roller-coaster tracking this thing..

[storms in NC]

New Euro run is posted. Has Low crossing S. FL and headed NW.

From the pass years it hasn't been a good model to go by.JMO

[Brent]

Is the center in that new convection blowup? Better, but still facing easterly shear. I think development will be slow through tomorrow, it may not get a name til then either. I do think it's got big potential once it gets further west, especially 45-50 W.

[storms in NC]

Brent you still

[Scorpion]

Agreed... 45-50 W is far more favorable

[knotimpaired]

JPmia,

Hi, I am on Vieques and the answer is no they do not evacuate the islands. Vieques has 9,000 + residents and Culebra 2,000+. Our planes carry between 8-12 passengers. Culebra has a much better chance to leave than we do.

Our ferries hold approx. 260-290 passengers and there is no physical way it can be done.

If we get hit, we can expect the airports to close and the ferries will stop which in essence shuts us down from the world. It is up to the Port Authority when they close the ferries, but unless corrected by MJ, I believe it to be between 8-10'. The airports will close around 25-30 mph.

During Hugo Vieques was without power for 45 days and lost 80% of the homes.

Lets hope this goes anywhere but here.

We are at 18.08 - 65.26.

[Brent]

Brent you still

LOL, I'm better now. It makes no sense to get all worked up over it when it's days or even weeks away.

[gatorcane]

Here is the potential monster (Dean or Erin) starting to unfold....showing proximity to the islands and CONUS:

[MiamiensisWx]

Night is arriving.

It's really "breathing" low-level moisture on all quadrants - expect the diurnal maximum to boost structural organization and initiate more convection over the LLC, especially because of the low-level circulation's proximity to the MLC and new convective burst. It's still partially exposed, but the slower forward motion (per my personal satellite observations) is a positive sign for a slow reduction in shear and better structural organization. Let's watch for convective "bursts" maintaining themselves closer to the LLC...