INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

[MWatkins]

Just looking at visible satellite imagery...it sure does look like this system is starting to pull itself together...low level clouds are starting to pinwheel and it seems like we are seeing the first hint of curved bands trying to form.

Not enough persistance/curvature for a Dvorak estimate yet but it's getting there...

MW

[Steve]

>>Not enough persistance/curvature for a Dvorak estimate yet but it's getting there...

Mike,

Someone had a 1.0/1.0 earlier in this thread (not sure if it was official or estimated). Of course I've looked at so many threads today I might have them mixed up.



Steve

[Aric Dunn]

Just looking at visible satellite imagery...it sure does look like this system is starting to pull itself together...low level clouds are starting to pinwheel and it seems like we are seeing the first hint of curved bands trying to form.

Not enough persistance/curvature for a Dvorak estimate yet but it's getting there...

MW

watkins can you make a brief appearance during the live coverage tonight

[Stormcenter]

Just looking at visible satellite imagery...it sure does look like this system is starting to pull itself together...low level clouds are starting to pinwheel and it seems like we are seeing the first hint of curved bands trying to form.

Not enough persistance/curvature for a Dvorak estimate yet but it's getting there...

MW

It sure does look that way.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[EyELeSs1]

>>Not enough persistance/curvature for a Dvorak estimate yet but it's getting there...

Mike,

Someone had a 1.0/1.0 earlier in this thread (not sure if it was official or estimated). Of course I've looked at so many threads today I might have them mixed up.



Steve

correct indeed

[MWatkins]

>>Not enough persistance/curvature for a Dvorak estimate yet but it's getting there...

Mike,

Someone had a 1.0/1.0 earlier in this thread (not sure if it was official or estimated). Of course I've looked at so many threads today I might have them mixed up.



Steve

Sure enough...SAB did give it a 1.0 at 18Z...that's what I get for counting on someone to actually update ATCF on time.

I withdraw my "not enought time for a T-estimate" comment. The rest of my testimony stands

MW

[Steve]

>>Crap, that LLC looks like it's just chewing it up.

What?!?!?!

[MWatkins]

Just looking at visible satellite imagery...it sure does look like this system is starting to pull itself together...low level clouds are starting to pinwheel and it seems like we are seeing the first hint of curved bands trying to form.

Not enough persistance/curvature for a Dvorak estimate yet but it's getting there...

MW

watkins can you make a brief appearance during the live coverage tonight

Sure Aric I will drop by for an hour or so tonight...obviously we have a lot to talk about...

[jasons2k]

It does look better but it still seems awfully close to that ULL

[Aric Dunn]

Just looking at visible satellite imagery...it sure does look like this system is starting to pull itself together...low level clouds are starting to pinwheel and it seems like we are seeing the first hint of curved bands trying to form.

Not enough persistance/curvature for a Dvorak estimate yet but it's getting there...

MW

watkins can you make a brief appearance during the live coverage tonight

Sure Aric I will drop by for an hour or so tonight...obviously we have a lot to talk about...

yes we do

[KFDM Meteorologist]

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 132006
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
306 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SOME DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING
IN LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES COMPARED TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
HI READINGS HAVE MANAGED TO REACH THE 105 MARK...AND THESE VALUES SHOULD
BE OBTAINABLE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE EXTENDED THE
HEAT ADVISORY WHICH IS NOW SET TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM ON TUESDAY. AS WE DEAL
WITH THIS RECORD BREAKING SUMMER HEAT (GALVESTON ESTABLISHED ANOTHER
RECORD HIGH BEFORE NOON TODAY AND WILL TIE TODAY`S RECORD HIGH MIN IF
THE TEMPERATURE DOESN`T FALL BELOW 84 DEGREES BEFORE MIDNIGHT)...ALL
EYES ARE ON THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE (SEE THE LATEST INFORMATION
FROM TPC/NHC). IT LOOKS LIKE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.
HAVE RAISED POPS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOO (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD APPROACH
2.50 INCHES!). WILL LOWER POPS JUST A TAD FOR THURSDAY...AND THEN WE`LL
GET BACK INTO OUR SEEMINGLY LONG ABSENT DAILY CHANCE OF MAINLY LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. 42
&&

[MiamiensisWx]

I think I see a low-level spin near 22.5N and 87.8W. Look at the latest floater frames. If it is indeed getting better organized, I would expect this swirl to dimish as a broader dominant circulation slowly forms closer to main convective mass (assuming the upper low fills and gets out of the way). That characteristic would represent a classic scenario where a Caribbean TC develops via interaction with a weak low and tropical wave axis/sfc trough. Regardless, it does look more interesting, and I think it is entering the best period for further development. Good eye, Mike and Aric...

[Extremeweatherguy]

very interesting discussion from Houston. Looks like this could end up being a lopsided TS with most of the action displaced NE of the center. If that is the case, then we in SE Texas might get some good rains and may be some breezes out of this system.

[tailgater]

Just looking at visible satellite imagery...it sure does look like this system is starting to pull itself together...low level clouds are starting to pinwheel and it seems like we are seeing the first hint of curved bands trying to form.

Not enough persistance/curvature for a Dvorak estimate yet but it's getting there...

MW

I was just thinking that it looked like less organized and the circ. we thought we saw earlier is moving south into the Yucatan Penn. So what do I know!

[miamicanes177]

watkins can you make a brief appearance during the live coverage tonight

Do you have a show on ipr365 aric? If so what time and when? Thanks

[Steve]

Extreme,

If the NAM has the moisture right (which it sometimes does okay on), you could very well be correct. The 18z run is only out to about 42 hours, but you'll see what I'm saying if you animate the link below.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Steve

[KFDM Meteorologist]

18Z NAM (which is a terrible tropical model) has system near Corpus.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_054l.gif

[Aric Dunn]

watkins can you make a brief appearance during the live coverage tonight

Do you have a show on ipr365 aric? If so what time and when? Thanks

there is a thread for it
in the active area

['CaneFreak]

watkins can you make a brief appearance during the live coverage tonight

Do you have a show on ipr365 aric? If so what time and when? Thanks

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=96989

[Extremeweatherguy]

Extreme,

If the NAM has the moisture right (which it sometimes does okay on), you could very well be correct. The 18z run is only out to about 42 hours, but you'll see what I'm saying if you animate the link below.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Steve

yes, that is exactly what I am talking about. Looks like this will be one of those storms where areas NE of the center recieve worse conditions than areas right near the center at landfall. If I had to make a call, I would say that the worst storm conditions will be found in the coastal waters of the central and upper TX coast (in terms of waves, winds and coastal flooding), with little to no activity southwest of the center.

The NAM at 54 hrs. is exactly what I expect to see: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/fp0_054.shtml

This is only as it stands now though. If the storm suddenly deepened into a hurricane (which I do not expect it to do at this point), then the scenario would play out differently.