CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Brent]

those posted maps are from the 11AM advisory

It's updated here(slightly north at the end and a little slower), hit refresh.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 22W_sm.gif

[windstorm99]

Right through Herbert's Box.

[gatorcane]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0407W5_sm2+gif/204522W_sm.gif

Stay away from Florida Dean (or Erin)

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM EDT MON AUG 13 2007

THE DEPRESSION IS MAINTAINING ITSELF IN THE FACE OF EASTERLY WIND
SHEAR OF ABOUT 15 KT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSATING TODAY AND
HAS REMAINED DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
METEOSAT-9 HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY CLEARLY REVEALED THE
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE RECENTLY
THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND PARTIALLY OBSCURED THE CENTER.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
REMAINS 30 KT.

TD FOUR IS STILL RACING ALMOST DUE WESTWARD...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 265/17. A CONTINUED BRISK AND GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE
MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AHEAD OF NEARLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE DURING
THAT PERIOD...AS THE MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE FAST INITIAL SPEED. BEYOND 48 HOURS...A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS. SINCE THIS
MORNING...ALL OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN AND
SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO FORECASTING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARD THE
CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST MODELS...BUT REMAINS A LITTLE FASTER AND TO
THE WEST OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...SINCE THE GUIDANCE COULD SHIFT
BACK THE OTHER WAY LATER.

THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ABATE WHILE THE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE ALONG THE OFFICIAL TRACK DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO FIND ITSELF BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING. A NOTABLE EXCEPTION IS
THE ECMWF...WHICH FORECASTS A STRONGER MID-OCEANIC TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN 4-5 DAYS WHICH COULD CAUSE AN INCREASE IN THE
SHEAR. THAT MODEL...HOWEVER...DOES NOT REPRESENT THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WELL...AND IT MIGHT NOT HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON HOW THE CYCLONE
COULD MODIFY THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FORECASTS 63
KT AT 72 HOURS AND 75 KT BY FIVE DAYS...WHILE THE LGEM REACHES 84
KT AT 120 HOURS. MEANWHILE THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST 90 AND 84
KT...RESPECTIVELY...AT FIVE DAYS. CONSIDERING THIS GUIDANCE...THE
NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IN UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING BUT
RETAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...ESPECIALLY AT THE
LONGER RANGES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/2100Z 11.9N 33.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/0600Z 11.8N 35.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 14/1800Z 11.8N 38.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 15/0600Z 11.8N 41.6W 45 KT
48HR VT 15/1800Z 12.1N 44.7W 50 KT
72HR VT 16/1800Z 13.0N 50.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 17/1800Z 15.0N 56.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 18/1800Z 17.0N 61.0W 90 KT

[Extremeweatherguy]

The NHC track bends back slightly toward the west near the end of the run. Seems they do not think this will be a recurver.

[EyELeSs1]

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at200704_5day.gif

a kind geography lesson for those who don't know:

Antigua is where the orange cat 2 dot is located. Guadeloupe is just to the south of Antigua and Barbuda is the island north east of Antigua.

[HeatherAKC]

So, if I take the NHC map and make a line from 2pm Friday to 2pm Saturday and keep that line going, what's to keep this storm from totally blowing up into a cat 3 or 4? Obviously, there are no land masses to prohibit the storm from getting stronger. What does everyone think about the set-up a week down the road? Will it start to head West after 2pm Saturday? Due North?

[HURRICANELONNY]

If JB says Florida then I know I'm safe.

[gatorcane]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0407W5_sm2+gif/204522W_sm.gif

Stay away from Florida Dean (or Erin)

I wouldn't be surprised if eventually they bend it back to the west later on in the run as the ridge builds in to the north...classic climatology going on here....

I see an S shape (only horizontal)

[Wx_Warrior]

LOL...It's all he said/she said now and which bandwagon to jump on!

[Brent]

So, if I take the NHC map and make a line from 2pm Friday to 2pm Saturday and keep that line going, what's to keep this storm from totally blowing up into a cat 3 or 4? Obviously, there are no land masses to prohibit the storm from getting stronger. What does everyone think about the set-up a week down the road? Will it start to head West after 2pm Saturday? Due North?

There's really no way to tell right now.

[bvigal]

here is what i think about td 4 (the new system in the atlantic)

i think it will had west toward the islands and hit puerto rico as a cat 4. then it will go toward the bahamas and florida as a cat 4. not sure yet though if it will hit fl or go up towards nc or ny. we'll see.

thouts?

My thoughts are... it's your first day on the board, so welcome. However, I hope all 8000 members don't decide to make a post like this! (sorry, maybe I'm a little on edge being in the path of your Cat4, but it's a valid point)

[Extremeweatherguy]

Interesting paragraph from the 5pm TD#4 discussion:

TD four is still racing almost due westward...with an initial motion
estimate of 265/17. A continued brisk and generally westward motion
should continue during the next couple of days while the cyclone
moves along the southern periphery of a deep layer ridge. The
official forecast is ahead of nearly all of the guidance during
that period...as the models do not seem to have a good handle on
the fast initial speed. Beyond 48 hours...a turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast by all of the models. Since this
morning...all of the track model guidance has slowed down and
shifted to the right...in response to forecasting a slightly weaker
subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic later in the forecast
period. The new official track has been adjusted toward the
consensus of the latest models...but remains a little faster and to
the west of the guidance envelope...since the guidance could shift
back the other way later.

[panhandlehurricane79]

hi again sorry i didn't understand before. yes I think the storm will hit puerto rico as a cat 4 and hit florida or nc or ny (not sure) later.

[Scorpion]

So, if I take the NHC map and make a line from 2pm Friday to 2pm Saturday and keep that line going, what's to keep this storm from totally blowing up into a cat 3 or 4? Obviously, there are no land masses to prohibit the storm from getting stronger. What does everyone think about the set-up a week down the road? Will it start to head West after 2pm Saturday? Due North?

Nothing... with a good upper level environment and outflow channels, there is nothing to stop it from becoming a Cat 5

[MiamiensisWx]

Old NHC joke: "If you're in the middle of the cone beyond three days, you probably should not worry. Just be prepared!"

The islands should watch this system - it is clear that TD 4 likely will affect the Antilles (per the cone and upper-air pattern). We should not focus on a specific United States mainland landfall vicinity...

[jasons2k]

I'm a little surprised the NHC bit into the GFS and it's shenanigans and shifted right. We'll see what happens over the next few days but I still think this is a Caribbean storm.

[msbee]

bvigal and EyELeSs1
hi neighbors.
yes, we all will have some waiting and watching to do in the next few days.
i agree with you bvigal.. we can make ourselves crazy with too much informations. When you look at those models , it gets downright freaky when you see your island right smack dab in the middle of the cone.
what is it? this is more information than I need to know
so guys, let's hope for the best, as you both say, and wait for a few days until we know more.
Good luck to all the islanders.
But the official forecast just isued at the 5 PM NHC advisory shows this:
120HR VT 18/1800Z 17.0N 61.0W 90 KT
that's too close for comfort!

[cycloneye]

bvigal and EyELeSs1
hi neighbors.
yes, we all will have some waiting and watching to do in the next few days.
i agree with you bvigal.. we can make ourselves crazy with too much informations. When you look at those models , it gets downright freaky when you see your island right smack dab in the middle of the cone.
what is it? this is more information than I need to know
so guys, let's hope for the best, as you both say, and wait for a few days until we know more.
Good luck to all the islanders.

You know what,I think its better to not look too much to the models and focus on what in reallity the system is doing.That is model 1 for me.