CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[MiamiensisWx]

I am afraid Dean to be will be 2007's equivelent of Katrina or past monster storms

I'm sorry, but what purpose does this post serve to the people who need accurate non-sensational information? Can you offer some proof to back your statement? I'll be interested to see your reasons.

[marcane_1973]

When this storm slows down you can throw out all those models. Here we go with the timing dealio again. If this storm does not catch a ride out to sea it seems this could end up being a SE threat or take the southern route and be a GOM threat. I think it will be an interesting week and nobody is out of the woods just yet. If all the models start to take this in the Bahamas in the next several days I think everyone on here knows what that means. Florida, Georgia, and possibly the Carolinas will be under the gun.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Hi and thanks. i do not know what oceanic heat content is. but my friend john said he got the models off of sfwmd.gov.

I think you mean the 5 day models. Those can change and often do,
but of course it is important to look at the trends...now it is very tough
for 5 day models to have too much accuracy, so it will have to be
watched on a day to day basis.
And by trends I mean how the model tracks shift over several days...

Oceanic heat content is the amount of heat the ocean contains...
It has specific units of measurement, I think kJ per something, but
basically it measures the amount of heat in water. It is important
in determining intensities of tropical systems.

[storms in NC]

If we have a TC in the Gulf how long will it stay? And what will it do to TD4? Is that the reason they have moved all to the right? or is it the ridge? Or will the TC in the Gulf weaken the ridge for TD4 to go North?

Deb

[Scorpion]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 AUG 2007 Time : 204500 UTC
Lat : 11:56:53 N Lon : 33:19:30 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 /1005.8mb/ 34.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.4 2.6 2.7

[EyELeSs1]

hmmmm those T#s seems quite high??

[Brent]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 AUG 2007 Time : 204500 UTC
Lat : 11:56:53 N Lon : 33:19:30 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 /1005.8mb/ 34.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.4 2.6 2.7

Getting close to TS strength... this might be Dean at 11.

[panhandlehurricane79]

hm i'm confused but yes.

[MGC]

TD 4 forecast track will likely shift with every advisory. Until they fly the Gulfstream and get a good handle on the upper enviroment ahead of the storm. The TC could even miss the islands completely. Enviromental contitions look favorable for intensification in a couple of days and I would not be surprised to see this TC become a rather significant storm as it approaches the islands. Hopefully a trough will magically appear in a week or so and turn the system out to sea......MGC

[x-y-no]

18z GFS has started.

Initialization doesn't look that bad, although I wonder about that surface ridge nosing down in front of it ... still that's gone by 6 hours (although not entirely so at 850mb)

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Thanks. Keep the GFS coming.

[RL3AO]

Is that T# from any of the 3 agencies?

[MGC]

Until they fly the Gulfstream I have little faith in the models this far out. They will be flip flopping till then.....MGC

[MiamiensisWx]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 AUG 2007 Time : 204500 UTC
Lat : 11:56:53 N Lon : 33:19:30 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 /1005.8mb/ 34.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.4 2.6 2.7

Getting close to TS strength... this might be Dean at 11.

I would not be surprised if we observe an upgrade at 11 p.m. EDT - look at the improving conditions and structural organization. The well defined LLC and stronger convection over the center (plus more inflow) suggests some possible sfc winds reaching 34 kts, especially if we see this trend over the course of the night. I would bet on a TS within the next two to three days. Let's closely monitor TD 4...

[x-y-no]

18Z GFS

Crossing 40W at 30 hours

Motion due west

[cycloneye]

There is a poll in Talking Tropics forum about if TD 4 will be Tropical Storm Dean at 11 PM.So vote here.



viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96995

[canegrl04]

I'm gonna say TS Dean by 5am,and hurricane status late in the week.Just a guess,but I see this reaching S. Florida and headed into the GOM

[storms in NC]

Does anyone have a answer to my Question?

[weatherguru18]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 AUG 2007 Time : 204500 UTC
Lat : 11:56:53 N Lon : 33:19:30 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 /1005.8mb/ 34.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.4 2.6 2.7

Getting close to TS strength... this might be Dean at 11.

I would not be surprised if we observe an upgrade at 11 p.m. EDT - look at the improving conditions and structural organization. The well defined LLC and stronger convection over the center (plus more inflow) suggests some possible sfc winds reaching 34 kts, especially if we see this trend over the course of the night. I would bet on a TS within the next two to three days. Let's closely monitor TD 4...

Two or three days?? I'm thinking hurricane by three days. Once this thing becomes established, it will begin to take off...possibly rapidly. Keep in mind that intensity forecasts are slightly better than a guess, but not much.

[x-y-no]

18Z GFS

48 hours

Motion still pretty much due west.

It's a tiny bit faster than the 12Z - but only a tiny bit.