CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[txwatcher91]

With TD 4 having the possibility of being a SE threat, I looked at this heat content map and IF it were to head toward the SE US it will have very favorable water temps to strengthen, provided that shear, dry air, etc. are favorable.

[Weatherfreak14]

looking pretty good right now, lets see if convection will continue to bild up on this thing.

[x-y-no]

60 hours

Still a tiny bit faster than 12Z. Mid and upper level pattern are nearly identical to the 12Z. It'll be interesting to see if the tiny difference in motion makes much difference in track with the pattern so similar.

[Scorpion]

I would like to see some more convection in the NE part of the system, but so far it looks pretty close to TS status

[HurricaneHunter914]

The Diurnal Maximum is really helping this system out. Convection is forming over the center and to the south of the system also. I think a TS at 11 PM is going to happen.

[x-y-no]

72 hours

Still nearly a clone of the 12Z run.

Here's the same time-point from the 12Z run - I open them in two tabs and do a blink comparison.

[Evil Jeremy]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
EJ’s Forecasts
TD4
Update 1
6:00PMEDT

The models are in significant disagreement, contrary to this morning when they were in agreement. Many models, specifically the GFDL, NOGAPS, and UKMET show the storm completely missing the islands, instead show it heading more northward than before. I will make a new, adjusted track with tonight’s full forecast.

As for the storm itself, it looks in a better shape than it did earlier today, with cold cloud tops forming near the center. I expect that TD4 will become TS Dean later tonight.

Right now, all eyes from the Caribbean islands to the SE USA and the GOM should monitor this system.

Next Forecast later tonight.

[Scorpion]

At 90 hours its a little further north than the 96 hour forecast from the 12Z

[jrod]

TD 4 forecast track will likely shift with every advisory. Until they fly the Gulfstream and get a good handle on the upper enviroment ahead of the storm. The TC could even miss the islands completely. Enviromental contitions look favorable for intensification in a couple of days and I would not be surprised to see this TC become a rather significant storm as it approaches the islands. Hopefully a trough will magically appear in a week or so and turn the system out to sea......MGC

Exactly. I know better than to put any faith in the models, even the forecast until they can sample the enviroment around it. That is days away and I specualte this board's members will have new predictions with every little wooble. If it becomes a Carribean storm, the outrageous TCHP around Jamaica will be a big factor.

I felt uneasy yesterday when I was it out so if my gut is right, Florida will be in trouble. Right now all we can do is wait and hear what the experts have to say.

[x-y-no]

90 hours

Movement WNW now ... it's maybe 2 to 3 degrees ahead of the 12Z run position at this timepoint. Upper/mid level pattern still very similar.

[x-y-no]

I have to bail now - if someone wants to take over feel free.

[HeatherAKC]

Well, well! Great job at WPLG/ABC Miami with Max Mayfield! He spoke for about 3 minutes on TD4 and didn't really offer anything new but said he expects as TS tonight or tomorrow and he showed 4 models V. NHC and the NHC is the southern outlier. He said that the NHC won't make dramatic track shifts, but expects there could be another shift towards the north or just as easily to the south of current path. Nice to see him in action!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

96 HR Surface

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

[HURAKAN]

Quite a large system so far.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096l.gif

96 500

[Wx_Warrior]

114

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_114l.gif

[Scorpion]

At 114 its at 60W

[windstorm99]

[KFDM Meteorologist]

114 500..May be starting to turn from weakness.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_114l.gif

[Derek Ortt]

very near the Lesser Antilles... with the steering flow though, a track south of what this "model" is forecasting may be more likely