CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[canegrl04]

ZThe models will be back and fourth for the next few days.Don't put much stock in them right now

[cheezyWXguy]

Is there any chance that the center is trying to reform further west? I know not to base surface obs on IR, as it is nearly impossible, but it seems as though there is a bit of turning in the deepest convection, at least in the mid levels, but I could be wrong.

Take a look:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

[Beach0612]

Into South Florida? GASP!

[weatherguru18]

If this is the case, we have a tropical storm for sure and this thing will rapidly deepen.

[storms in NC]

Maybe slowing down just a tap here.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

[ConvergenceZone]

Everybody is putting their eggs in one basket here. If it went from a Caribbean storm to a fish in a couple runs, what makes you think it can turn back into a GOM system? Your banking on something a week or more away.

I'm by no means saying "for sure" just that there's looks to be a decent chance that it will be a fish due to the upcoming weakness in the ridge, but you are right, nothing is for sure...

[storms in NC]

Good night All I will see what the Am brings. Don't have to much fun.

[vaffie]

Is there any chance that the center is trying to reform further west? I know not to base surface obs on IR, as it is nearly impossible, but it seems as though there is a bit of turning in the deepest convection, at least in the mid levels, but I could be wrong.

Take a look:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

I think you're right. It has. The constant shear it's been experiencing has been resulting in greater convection on it's west side for so long that pressures fell there sufficiently to result in center reformation. It's one of those kinds of things that will affect model forecasts--for they will interpret it as a faster west speed than it actually has so they will not only initialize it wrong, but when the shear relaxes and slight reformations to the west stop occurring, they will interpret it as a slowdown in speed perhaps from a weaker ridge than actually exists. It can get complicated.

[cycloneye]

To remind the members on how this forum will run.

We'll continue the seperate threads in this forum like we did last year however we'll only start a new thread when the storm changes intensity. Since there will be far fewer threads in this forum we'll let the discussion run (regardless of pages) until the storm changes in intensity; TD to TS, TS to Hurricane, and Hurricane to Major. At that point a new thread will be started with the title reflecting the new status and the current one locked. 48 hours after the last advisory is written the threads will be combined and moved into the archives.

As you can read,no 25 page limit to the threads until a system changes classification,Then a new one will be made.

[cycloneye]

750
WHXX04 KWBC 132325
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR 04L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 13

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.0 32.6 265./17.1
6 11.8 33.4 254./ 7.7
12 11.8 34.4 267./ 9.7
18 11.7 35.6 269./11.9
24 11.8 36.9 275./12.5
30 11.7 38.0 265./11.3
36 11.7 39.2 270./11.7
42 11.8 40.4 274./11.5
48 12.1 41.8 280./14.4
54 12.2 43.0 276./11.9
60 12.6 44.2 290./12.2
66 13.1 45.5 290./13.4
72 13.5 46.8 288./13.0
78 14.0 48.0 291./12.2
84 14.6 49.2 296./12.9
90 15.1 50.3 297./12.5
96 15.8 51.6 297./14.1
102 16.5 52.7 301./12.9
108 17.1 54.0 295./13.0
114 17.9 55.2 303./14.3
120 18.6 56.5 301./14.7
126 19.3 57.8 297./13.7


18z GFDL goes to fishland.

[msbee]

[fci]

I'm just lovin' this folks!

People get so attached to a run and then refute anyone that disagrees.

I am really into what history tells us when "guessing"where a system will go. Oh there will be an odd storm here and there (see Ernesto, Jeanne with her loop-di-loops, Betsy with her little loop etc..).

However, look at the historical tracks here and you see that this eventually being a Fish is a very reasonable solution!

Yes, this may very well defy history but I get a chuckle when the mere mention of a Fish a day or two ago brought on a lot of snickers.

The vast majority of us want a Fish so lets hope that the models start to unify on this latest solution and all we do is watch from afar.

[Derek Ortt]

What is the GFDL doing?

There is absolutely no way that this is slowing down to 7KT in 6 hours. That track is beyond laughable to say the least

YELLOW CARD to the GFDL for spewing that junk

[HURAKAN]

18Z:

[Derek Ortt]

the 12 hour error looks as if it is going to be approaching 100NM

[deltadog03]

HAHA Derek....UM.....GFS and GFDL RED CARD!!!

[ConvergenceZone]

What is the GFDL doing?

There is absolutely no way that this is slowing down to 7KT in 6 hours. That track is beyond laughable to say the least

YELLOW CARD to the GFDL for spewing that junk

Derek, in your educated opinion, do you think this will be a "fish" storm?? I'm asking you,
because you've been right so many times in the past and I respect your opinion. Thanks.

[Aquawind]

This doesn't look terribly unreasonable to me. The last couple of model runs have shown a weakness in the subtropical ridge across the western Atlantic, with upper-level troughing off the US east coast slowly weakening into a cut-off low by the end of this weak. This ULL is forecast to move off to the northeast as a strong upper-level trough digs into the northeastern US. Meanwhile, there will continue to be a break between the Atlantic mid-level ridge and the strong ridge / cut-off high over the southern Mississippi River valley. This weakness looks like it'll serve as a good escape for TD4, likely-to-be-Dean, to recurve and move back out to sea. the GFS is also showing 30-40kts northeasterly 250mb flow early next week off the southastern US coast on the northeast side of the upper-level high/ridge as the relatively large upper-level ridge shifts slowly southward to a position that stretches from the eastern Gulf of Mexico westward into the eastern Pacific. The 12z/13 ECMWF is a little more extensive with this ridge (showing less of a disconnect between the Atlantic ridge / Bermuda high and the ridge across the Gulf, Mexico, and southern US, which would suggest a lesser possibility of seeing a poleward turn.

Regardless, this is all pretty much guesswork. We don't even know the strength and size of TD4 in 72+ hrs, and we know how strong hurricanes can affect their surrounding environment. Anyone telling you that any particular state is "going to get it" is full of it -- there's just no way to know. We're still at least a week from TD4 being anywhere near the US, so I would STRONGLY caution against putting much faith in ANY numerical models at this time.For all we know, this could turn southwestward into Venezuela in 8 days. Or, it may turn out to sea and be a threat to Bermuda. We just don't know.

Very Well said.. I agree nothing to unreasonable at all and it's still wide open as to the long term path.. Thanks for posting..

[skufful]

the 12 hour error looks as if it is going to be approaching 100NM

Where's your next forecast?

TCW

[Derek Ortt]

far to soon to say fish and if this hits the Caribbean... it is no fish

but I can say that the GFDL needs to lay down the crack pipe and stop slowing this down for no good reason (meaning GFS needs better initial conditions... where have we heard that before)