Strong Eastern Atlantic Wave (1009mb surface Low)

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... 16vis.html
visible loop
you must omit images 9,10,11,12,14,15,16. otherwise it skips..

but WOW that circulation is well defined and is heading west ... earlier i was not worried about because i thought it was heading north and over cooler waters . but it looks like it caught under the strong ridge and has been heading west now for a while.. its is very possible that we may have another player here soon and convection on the last few images seems to slightly increasing ( a little ).

since its heading over top the Cape verde islands here are the latest obs from the show a possible circ from the winds
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/GVAC.html

its initialized at
1009mb


it maybe our next invest should it decide to gain some convection


sst's appear to be warm enough




Sal
is not bad at all actaully very weak



there appears to be plenty of moisture in the mid levels
so dry air is not really a problem



midlevel Water Vapor



and upper level
vapor




Here is the 850mb vort showing very evident circ at least in the mid levels




And shear is much lighter at that latitude




So all in all conditions appear quite favorable for something to possibly come from this over the next couple of day!!!!

[Aric Dunn]

Any questions! lol

[txwatcher91]

This wave should definately be watched because of the well defined circulation. This could definately be a player down the road IMO.

[Aric Dunn]

This wave should definitely be watched because of the well defined circulation. This could definitely be a player down the road IMO.

you can also clearly see the low level circ moving west ...
on this loop in the upper right hand corner....... all it needs is convection !!
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 0#controls

[txwatcher91]

you can also clearly see the low level circ moving west ...
on this loop in the upper right hand corner....... all it needs is convection !!
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 0#controls

Once it reaches 30W, it will reach some slightly warmer water. This should help it gain convection as it reaches the warmer water, especially once it hits 40W it should begin to get out of the dry air.

[WindRunner]

It was interesting to see this wave emerge about 36 hours ago . . . as the swirl moved off the coast, convection fired over the water. QS passes have showed a decent, though elongated, circulation associated with the wave. Other than being pretty far north in latitude, this wave looks pretty good and has the support of several models, including the Euro and CMC. Don't remember if the GFS carried it or not, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it start carrying something through there . . .

[CrazyC83]

Will they declare this 92L soon?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADDED ALONG 19/20W ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N...WHICH
SHOWED UP WELL IN A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. THE WAVE PASSAGE WAS
VERY EVIDENT IN THE DAKAR SOUNDING DATA FROM LAST NIGHT TO THIS
MORNING. DEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL THOUGH THE ASSOCIATED
CLOUDINESS IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD THROUGH THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.


8 PM Discussion of wave/low.

[HurryKane]

there appears to be plenty of moisture in the mid levels
so dry air is not really a problem

Speaking entirely from an unscientific "Wow that's cool!" perspective....wow, that gif is COOL! Thanks for posting. *bookmarks*

[O Town]

LOL HurryKane, it is a very cool graphic to watch.

This thing looks huge compared with TD4. About halfway emerged.