CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[weatherman21]

The newly declared tropical depression appears to have really gained a better defined structure today and tonight. The depression seems to have undergone a transformation in the overall structure today and now it appears that the storm is becoming more symmetrical. A few satellite images are below:

GOES IR Satellite at 0:45Z Tonight:


Closer look at the depression at 0:45Z:


Water Vapor Imagery at 0:45Z:

[Derek Ortt]

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=97008

#2

[windycity]

Is it possible that what the models are seeing,are effects from invest 91? I can't help but wonder if it could cause the slight pull to the north that models are picking up.

[weatherguru18]

I can agree with the above statement. As a side note, can anybody (those in S. Florida) keep the board up to date on what Max Mayfield has to say? I'm very interested to gets his thoughts and opinions on this storm.

here you go, max has a blog.

http://www.local10.com/mayfieldblog/index.html

Thanks a bunch!

[Steve]

>>i just started, im hoping to learn a little this season. i will stay tuned.

Hahahahahaha. Don't anyone believe that. I've been following storms with jlauderdal and his Wisconsin Badger for probably 8 years now.

And don't call his credibility. I've got his back. LMAO

Steve

[jaxfladude]

Well, one OF my local TV stations just lead off their 10pm Newscast with..........................yuo guessed it..................TD#4!!!
THE MEDIA HYPE IS OFFICIALLY UNDERWAY!!!

[storms in NC]

Thought I would check in and No one is talking about TD4 Better put that down in the books LOL. GN

[DESTRUCTION5]

not time for some new globals?

[storms in NC]

Well, one OF my local TV stations just lead off their 10pm Newscast with..........................yuo guessed it..................TD#4!!!
THE MEDIA HYPE IS OFFICIALLY UNDERWAY!!!

It was just a matter of time

[cycloneye]

not time for some new globals?

11:30 PM 00z GFS

[Sanibel]

Is it possible that what the models are seeing,are effects from invest 91? I can't help but wonder if it could cause the slight pull to the north that models are picking up.

More like the ridge weakening on its west edge with a mild trough off the east coast. The only thing Florida would have to worry about is a High filling in over the SE and carrying it straight towards Florida from there. Some of the worst storms to hit Florida were west-trackers under a ridge like Andrew. Katrina also west-tracked under a ridge. I believe the worst storm to hit the US - the Labor Day storm of 1935 did too.

[Scorpion]

The HWRF takes it to 950 mb and seems to be turning it back west at the end of the run

[DESTRUCTION5]

The HWRF takes it to 950 mb and seems to be turning it back west at the end of the run

Come on Scorp..Post would be nice..LOL..Not just a verbal

[MGC]

I'm not surprised by the model spread. All the models are guessing at the strength of the ridge stearing TD 4. Until they fly the gulfstream jet and sample the upper atmosphere along the forecast track then it is all garbage.....MGC

[Scorpion]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/hwrf/2 ... /slp21.png

[DESTRUCTION5]

Nogaps finally jumps onboard..For a day at least..

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early2.png

[Jinkers]

Well, one OF my local TV stations just lead off their 10pm Newscast with..........................yuo guessed it..................TD#4!!!
THE MEDIA HYPE IS OFFICIALLY UNDERWAY!!!

It was just a matter of time

LOL, ours did here, the 6:00PM news on channel 6 led the newscast with TD4, I was over my mom's and we had a good laugh about it..

[windstorm99]

[JTD]

Nogaps finally jumps onboard..For a day at least..

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early2.png

I get this lovely message when trying to view your link. LOL:

Access forbidden!
You don't have permission to access the requested object. It is either read-protected or not readable by the server.

If you think this is a server error, please contact the webmaster.

Error 403
euler.atmos.colostate.edu
Apache/2.0.54 (Fedora)

[weatherman21]

The 18Z GFS run from today has changed the forecast track significantly from the last time I observed the model which was yesterday I believe. In the very short-term, the GFS remains persistant in taking this depression towards the west/wnw through the next few days and by Saturday, the GFS places the cyclone just east of the northern Lesser Antilles. The GFDL model opposes the GFS solution and indicates the storm will track somewhat slower and may pass further NE of the Lesser Antilles by the end of next weekend. I noticed that the SHIP model forecasts the storm to gradually strengthen through the five day forecast period, taking the cyclone up to a possible 84 knot hurricane by Saturday/Sunday. The GFS supports gradual strengthening as well.
Though I observe the GFS out through 7 days, I have low confidence in the GFS forecast past 5 days, especially if the model is having difficulties predicting the long-term scenerio. I remember last season when I utilized both the GFS and GFDL models in the few tropical cyclone forecasts that took place and the GFDL appeared to perform better than the GFS. Will be interesting to watch future model runs and to see whether the GFDL continues to perform better than the GFS. For now, I have low confidence in the solutions of all the models past Friday as the prediction of the large-scale pattern by then seem to be somewhat complicated. I have some confidence that storm will continue a general westward motion through the next few days and only time will tell what happens thereafter.
Some model pics from the IDV are below:

GFS Forecast for 18Z on 8/19: (next Sunday)


GFS Forecast for 18Z on 8/20: (next Monday)


GFS Forecast for 6Z on 8/21: (next Tuesday)


GFDL Model Forecast from 18Z Today: (Model forecasts through 126 hours/next Sunday; notice the GFDL places the storm just NE of the northern Lesser Antilles by next Sunday)