INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

[wxman57]

well unfornately your yellow circle has showers and storm moving SW thru yours.. im not sure if you have a loop . but when i get 9 more new images i will post another loop

Don't bother, I'm going to bed. No time to argue with you anyway.

[Aric Dunn]

[Stormcenter]

well unfornately your yellow circle has showers and storm moving SW thru yours.. im not sure if you have a loop . but when i get 9 more new images i will post another loop

Don't bother, I'm going to bed. No time to argue with you anyway.

Everyone has their opinion so we should respect it.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

24 HR. NAM

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_024l.gif

[chadtm80]

well unfornately your yellow circle has showers and storm moving SW thru yours.. im not sure if you have a loop . but when i get 9 more new images i will post another loop

Don't bother, I'm going to bed. No time to argue with you anyway.

Why would anyone want to believe you.. Its not like your a professional.. Oh wait a minute..

Thanks as always for your knowlage wxman

[Aric Dunn]

[Ed Mahmoud]

If I stare long enough at the IR2 loop, the closest thing to a circulation (mid-level, low-level, surface?) is just off the Western tip of Cuba.


I have a funny feeling the low cloud swirl visible during the daylight hours just offshore the Yucatan is gone.


Second 100ºF (38ºC) day in a row here, a wind shift to the East and Southeast will cool us down nicely, and the increase in moisture (PWs forecast back over 2 inches) might even mean some showers.

[Extremeweatherguy]

What are the chances of a new center relocating east under the deep convection just north of the yucatan channel?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, looking at that, there is still something not too far off the Yucatan.


There may be more than one center.



Well, tomorrow will tell the tale. In my unprofessional opinion, this is a 50/50 shot to even make TD before it reaches Mexico.

[tailgater]

Nice loop AD thanks. it's shows up nicely on the longer loop. Can I get a red circle for where I think a new center will develop tomorrow.J/J

[KFDM Meteorologist]

42 hr NAM

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_042l.gif

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT MON AUG 13 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOUR...LOCATED ABOUT 1780 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...CENTERED A SHORT
DISTANCE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TO THE NORTH
OF THE LOW CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNASSIANCE PLANE IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT34 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES
ON THE DEPRESSION ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Extremeweatherguy]

It is looking more and more likely that this will be TD#5 tomorrow based on the latest NHC discussion.

[Extremeweatherguy]

48 hr. NAM...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048l.gif

landfall near Corpus Christi at ~996mb (strong TS/weak Cat. 1)

[Aric Dunn]

48 hr. NAM...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048l.gif

landfall near Corpus Christi at ~996mb (strong TS/weak Cat. 1)

yep here is a different look
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048l.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

[HURAKAN]

Convection developing near the center of low pressure.

[Derek Ortt]

this is a shoe in to form

probably a very strong TS at the very least

[Aric Dunn]

this is a shoe in to form

probably a very strong TS at the very least

I agree.. what are your thoughts on the set up for an outflow jet as the upper low pulls away? and the one from the east drops south ?

[Sanibel]

The curved convection is preferring to set up under the upper High easing in behind the retreating ULL.