CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[btangy]

What's your best take on TD4 this far out btangy?

I don't find any major reason to disagree with the NHC 5 day track, so that's my best take. I don't know if the models will continue their typical northward bias in the deep tropics this year, but assuming so, I like the NHC's decision to remain on the southern edge of the guidance, i.e. W till about 45W and then WNW thereafter, which is in good agreement with the GFS ensemble mean track.

[cpdaman]

come to think of it i can't think of any major storms that hit florida headed from a prolonged direction from the SE, (traveling NW) are there any majors in anyone's handy archives of florida storms that show a track just NE of puerto rico, just north of dominican and straight thru the SE bahamas to the SE or EASt coast of FL. i would appreciate it much

i will also watch the 11 channel 10 update from miami and post what ole' max has to say, although i think he will be the last person to hype this storm and create a panic, at least until there is model consensus, but i'll let you know if based on the confidence he has in the mid term pattern forecast if he shares any of his "gut feelings".

[windstorm99]

Nogaps finally jumps onboard..For a day at least..

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early2.png

I get this lovely message when trying to view your link. LOL:

Access forbidden!
You don't have permission to access the requested object. It is either read-protected or not readable by the server.

If you think this is a server error, please contact the webmaster.

Error 403
euler.atmos.colostate.edu
Apache/2.0.54 (Fedora)

Try Now

[Scorpion]

Looks like a consensus is forming. Now we have to see if the ridge will build back in and allow it to hit Florida or will it hit the East Coast or go out to sea.

[Thunder44]

10:30pm TWO says it still TD 4:

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The National Hurricane Center issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Four...located about 1780 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles

[windstorm99]

A wait and see game for sure...But from the look at some of those models it might very well stay out to sea.

[Weatherfreak14]

I think it is very close to TS Dean status but i think a 5am or even more likely a 11am advisory will be the time for dean.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like a consensus is forming. Now we have to see if the ridge will build back in and allow it to hit Florida or will it hit the East Coast or go out to sea.

A consensus had formed yesterday too..showing this going into the Caribbean, but as we know that all changed in the blinking of an eye.

I wouldn't buy too much into these models until the consensus lasts at least another day.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Andrew tracked a good deal farther north than what you speak of, several hundred miles W of PR, then through central bahamas.

Floyd 99 was similar - just a good deal farther north than I think you mean.

[JTD]

Nogaps finally jumps onboard..For a day at least..

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early2.png

I get this lovely message when trying to view your link. LOL:

Access forbidden!
You don't have permission to access the requested object. It is either read-protected or not readable by the server.

If you think this is a server error, please contact the webmaster.

Error 403
euler.atmos.colostate.edu
Apache/2.0.54 (Fedora)

Try Now

Works now. Thanks.

[shannon]

cpdaman- hurricane donna 1960?

[Sanibel]

are there any majors in anyone's handy archives of florida storms that show a track just NE of puerto rico, just north of dominican and straight thru the SE bahamas to the SE or EASt coast of FL. i would appreciate it much

Pretty close. Monster storm of '28. Note how this storm crossed Puerto Rico as a category 5!


http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1928/4/track.gif

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
0300 UTC TUE AUG 14 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 35.0W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 35.0W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 34.2W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 12.0N 37.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 12.0N 40.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 12.2N 43.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 12.6N 46.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.8N 52.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 45NE 50SE 50SW 45NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 16.0N 57.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 18.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 35.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM AST MON AUG 13 2007

...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.0 WEST OR ABOUT 740
MILES...1190 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1780 MILES...2865 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...12.0 N...35.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Chacor]

852
FKNT24 KNHC 140240
TCANT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
0300 UTC TUE AUG 14 2007

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20070814/0300Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: FOUR
NR: 003
PSN: N1200 W03500
MOV: W 17KT
C: 1005HPA
MAX WIND: 030KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 140600 N1200 W03612
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 035KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 141200 N1200 W03724
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 035KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 141800 N1200 W03854
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 040KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 150000 N1200 W04024
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 040KT
NXT MSG: 20070814/0900Z


$$

[vaffie]

Dramatically improved vorticity in the last few hours.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4Z.GIF

[Weatherfreak14]

Still a TD

[Chacor]

852
FKNT24 KNHC 140240
TCANT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
0300 UTC TUE AUG 14 2007

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20070814/0300Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: FOUR
NR: 003
PSN: N1200 W03500
MOV: W 17KT
C: 1005HPA
MAX WIND: 030KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 140600 N1200 W03612
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 035KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 141200 N1200 W03724
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 035KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 141800 N1200 W03854
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 040KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 150000 N1200 W04024
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 040KT
NXT MSG: 20070814/0900Z


$$

This says TS Dean in 6 hours unless 91L forms into something quick...

[Evil Jeremy]

Cat 3 in 5 days on the new advisory

[windstorm99]