CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[USTropics]

OK so in other words, if TD4/Dean goes thru Herbert, then Miami is in a higher risk? I find that wierd, that this small area of water almost makes it a bee-line for MIA. Interesting, gee you learn something new every day.

I'm quite sure that it has to be of hurricane strength passing through the Herbert Box for the rule to apply. Also this is based purely on past storms trends, and only holds true if steering conditions are set up that way.

[windycity]

The theories continue, just as in the loop current and bombing hurricanes. Its rather complicated, isn't it?

[ConvergenceZone]

If you look at the map someone posted early of all the storms that DIDN'T efffect the USA, you'd realize that it's actually pretty rare for a storm to form where this one did and NOT be a fish...I guess that's why there are so very few long trackers that actually impact the USA....

I have a feeling that this one will be picked up and carried out to sea just like the other ones....

[Sanibel]

Our local weatherman just showed a High setting up over north Florida for later in the week bringing easterly winds...

[StormWarning1]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/index_carib.shtml

Still waiting for the 00z GFS to start rolling out.

0Z GFS is going to be running late. About 45 minutes it looks like.

[ekal]

The theories continue, just as in the loop current and bombing hurricanes. Its rather complicated, isn't it?

Yep. I suppose we will never truly know all the answers, but then again, that is what I find fascinating about the tropics (and meteorology in general). We can always move closer to the solution, but unless we gain control over the weather, we can never be correct in every situation.

I find an eerie comfort in knowing that there is still a force much bigger than us out there - some aspect of our world that we cannot completely micromanage. It is a shame, however, that this force can be so destructive.

Okay, back to TD 4 (I promise).

[canetracker]

I noticed that. I wonder what the hold up is?!

[fci]

At this time, is TD4 projected still pass through the Herbert Box?

Herbert box? Someone care to inform me on this one....

Here is some additional info:
First of all; it is the box between 15-20 and 60-65.
The article refers to "Box 2" for late season which is 15-20 and 80-85.

Many people visiting hurricanecity have asked "what is this hebert box I keep hearing about"?. The HebertBox was "discovered" in the late 1970s by Paul Hebert (pictured at left). This former nws & nhc forecaster found many major Hurricanes that hit South Florida had to first pass through these boxes. The first box is located east of Puerto Rico and the second box is located over the Cayman Islands. Every Major Hurricane that passed through Box 2 late in the year, hit the Florida peninsula prior to 1950. Hebert says that a Hurricane does not have to pass through these boxes to hit, but if they do "you better pay attention". The 1935 Labor day Hurricane that devastated the Florida Keys developed west of this box and Hurricane Andrew passed NE of this box, so there are exceptions to the rule.
This image shows the two Hebert boxes. If Floridians want an indication of a possible hit they need to keep an eye on any hurricane that passes through these boxes. Nearly every major Hurricane that hit S Florida since 1900 passed through these boxes. When major Hurricanes miss these boxes,they virtually always miss South Florida. If a major Hurricane moves into these boxes South Florida really needs to watch out. These boxes approx 335 miles x 335 miles includes the Virgin Islands but not Puerto Rico. The pattern has proven accurate for 9 out of 10 storms storms that developed & hit Dade,Broward & Palm Bch Counties. The following is a list showing Hurricanes that passed through these Boxes,starting with Box #1.

Link to the article:
http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm

[skysummit]

Must be changing the batteries in the GFS.

[Bgator]

IS anyone on this forum buying the recurve? Or are mnay people thinking the latest runs may have innacurate data or flaws? Thanks.

[canetracker]

[DESTRUCTION5]

I think its pondering its new decision on where to send TD 4

[skysummit]

I think its pondering its new decision on where to send TD 4

Yea...they didn't finish putting the little pieces of paper in the hat yet.

[TropicalJon]

Seems to be holding it's own tonight without much intensification....maybe moving a little south of due west?

[brunota2003]

I think its pondering its new decision on where to send TD 4

Yea...they didn't finish putting the little pieces of paper in the hat yet.

My guess to that piece of paper, and to entertain myself with, is...between the EC and Bermuda, running it smack through a strong ridge... Nah, it'll pull the LBAR, west, nope...east. WAIT! West again

[ConvergenceZone]

IS anyone on this forum buying the recurve? Or are mnay people thinking the latest runs may have innacurate data or flaws? Thanks.

I think alot of folks are buying "recurve", but of course we'll never know for sure until it happens....You always know when people start thinking recurve because the posts slow down big time(like tonight).....Usually when a model forecasts recurve there's alot of backlash against it, but then the other models gradually join in and then it makes it's move and then everyone finally admits, yea.....recurve....

Of course there's always the unique storm that throws a wrench in it and does just the opposite , so you always want to be prepared just in case it's one of those storms.

[canetracker]

I think its pondering its new decision on where to send TD 4

Yea...they didn't finish putting the little pieces of paper in the hat yet.

My guess to that piece of paper, and to entertain myself with, is...between the EC and Bermuda

I'm not sure I buy into that yet or anything the GFS is saying in the long term. Will be more confident as the TC gets closer to the CONUS.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Still hasn't started.

[JTD]

I'd be stunned to see anything but a recurve with this GFS run. Think any changes back west won't happen if ever until tommorrow.

[JonathanBelles]

Latest forecast posted

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