INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

[HouTXmetro]

What happened to your GFS post EWG?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I deleted them so I could put it all in one post...

(00z GFS run)

current.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_000l.gif

12 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_012l.gif

24 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

36 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif

48 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif

This run only develops a very weak system (not in line with the SHIPS models or the mets predictions)...it also takes the system on a weird jog to the south at the last minute. Very strange. The 18z run did something similar too. Considering it does not fully develop the system, this run should probably be disregarded ATM. I would stick with the other tropical models for right now.

[HouTXmetro]

even on that track looks like we get a little rain

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is a look at the other models...

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_91.gif

[Air Force Met]

I agree with your call Derek. I'm not convinced it's going to be super strong, but as noted on page (something in the single digits), I thought it had a shot at midgrade TS with an chance at intensification close to landfall depending. Claudette, though a different beast, Bret and Cindy were used as comparisons (intensification closer to landfall). I'd be surprised if 91L made it to Cat 2 though. I know the water is low-mid 80's per the earlier high-res SST chart, but I think that despite potential rapidly improving conditions, I just don't think there's enough time for this to do what it otherwise might have done.

Also as someone noted prior, props to the NAM and CMC for sniffing out the possibility last week FWIW.

Steve

Just got in from 2 weeks vacation in Oregon. Little internet connectivity and I get home at 11 pm to this? Yeah...vacation's over.

Well...just looking at it very briefly...I think it is also a shoe-in to form. I think it has the potential to pull a Claudette (2003 version)...at least the second half of her existence. With this type of setup, I can see this system reaching TS status...maybe a weak cat 1 (that is marginal)...but how the setup reminds me of Claudette is the SW shear that will probably remain over the system for a while. I can see a couple of center reformations to the north and east closer to the convection in this systems future.

In other words...until a consistent LLC is formed with convection around it that isn't getting sheared to the NE...beware of track models sending it to Brownsville. Those will have to be adjusted with ever center reformation...just like in Claudette.

Just my first guess...haven't looked at any of the threads and you guys may have already talked about it.

[cpdaman]

this will be TD 5 BEFORE morning if signature and convection is maintained for another hour or two
i predict there will be a special advisory around 2 am

[Aric Dunn]

I agree with your call Derek. I'm not convinced it's going to be super strong, but as noted on page (something in the single digits), I thought it had a shot at midgrade TS with an chance at intensification close to landfall depending. Claudette, though a different beast, Bret and Cindy were used as comparisons (intensification closer to landfall). I'd be surprised if 91L made it to Cat 2 though. I know the water is low-mid 80's per the earlier high-res SST chart, but I think that despite potential rapidly improving conditions, I just don't think there's enough time for this to do what it otherwise might have done.

Also as someone noted prior, props to the NAM and CMC for sniffing out the possibility last week FWIW.

Steve

Just got in from 2 weeks vacation in Oregon. Little internet connectivity and I get home at 11 pm to this? Yeah...vacation's over.

Well...just looking at it very briefly...I think it is also a shoe-in to form. I think it has the potential to pull a Claudette (2003 version)...at least the second half of her existence. With this type of setup, I can see this system reaching TS status...maybe a weak cat 1 (that is marginal)...but how the setup reminds me of Claudette is the SW shear that will probably remain over the system for a while. I can see a couple of center reformations to the north and east closer to the convection in this systems future.

In other words...until a consistent LLC is formed with convection around it that isn't getting sheared to the NE...beware of track models sending it to Brownsville. Those will have to be adjusted with ever center reformation...just like in Claudette.

Just my first guess...haven't looked at any of the threads and you guys may have already talked about it.

that pretty much sums up the entire thread this afternoon and evening .... center reforming sometime (when ever we get persistent convection) and the upper low moving faster away then the system is moving so upper environment could become quite favorable.

[Aric Dunn]

this will be TD 5 BEFORE morning if signature and convection is maintained for another hour or two
i predict there will be a special advisory around 2 am

I dont think i have ever seen a special advisory at 2am ?? not that i can remember so i doubt they would .. they are at least going to wait for recon

[Extremeweatherguy]

Thanks for your input AFM! I hope your vacation went well and that you are back and ready to follow this latest tropical threat. Keep us up to date if you see any changes.

[Stormcenter]

I agree with your call Derek. I'm not convinced it's going to be super strong, but as noted on page (something in the single digits), I thought it had a shot at midgrade TS with an chance at intensification close to landfall depending. Claudette, though a different beast, Bret and Cindy were used as comparisons (intensification closer to landfall). I'd be surprised if 91L made it to Cat 2 though. I know the water is low-mid 80's per the earlier high-res SST chart, but I think that despite potential rapidly improving conditions, I just don't think there's enough time for this to do what it otherwise might have done.

Also as someone noted prior, props to the NAM and CMC for sniffing out the possibility last week FWIW.

Steve

Just got in from 2 weeks vacation in Oregon. Little internet connectivity and I get home at 11 pm to this? Yeah...vacation's over.

Well...just looking at it very briefly...I think it is also a shoe-in to form. I think it has the potential to pull a Claudette (2003 version)...at least the second half of her existence. With this type of setup, I can see this system reaching TS status...maybe a weak cat 1 (that is marginal)...but how the setup reminds me of Claudette is the SW shear that will probably remain over the system for a while. I can see a couple of center reformations to the north and east closer to the convection in this systems future.

In other words...until a consistent LLC is formed with convection around it that isn't getting sheared to the NE...beware of track models sending it to Brownsville. Those will have to be adjusted with ever center reformation...just like in Claudette.

Just my first guess...haven't looked at any of the threads and you guys may have already talked about it.

As always an excellent post AFM.

[Air Force Met]

this will be TD 5 BEFORE morning if signature and convection is maintained for another hour or two
i predict there will be a special advisory around 2 am

I predict that that prediction will not come true.

[Swimdude]

From what I know, which isn't much, the NHC very much dislikes posting special advisories in the middle of the night. People just don't like to wake up to things like that. Why not wait until the day time, when everyone would find out anyway?

[Extremeweatherguy]

this will be TD 5 BEFORE morning if signature and convection is maintained for another hour or two
i predict there will be a special advisory around 2 am

I dont think i have ever seen a special advisory at 2am ?? not that i can remember so i doubt they would .. they are at least going to wait for recon

yeah, I think they wait until 5 or 11am at least, but they might just hold off until recon gets out there to be 100% sure. Either way, I expect this to be named by 5pm tomorrow if the trends continue to be in this system's favor.

[HouTXmetro]

To my untrained eye it looks as if another center is trying to reform north of the Yucatan channel.

[srainhoutx]

Thanks AFM.

[Normandy]

The center pointed out earlier still has not fired any deep convection over it, and now deep convection is firing over the Channel away from the LLC. A reformation seems likely.....and itll need one in order to deepen.

Aric your LLC is fading

[HouTXmetro]

Any good night time satellites with quick updates?

[fci]

The good news is that it will not have a super long time to intensify. Could be like a Katrina south florida event. Katrina would have hit florida as a major hurricane if it had another day over the waters.

True, but that was in the Carib.

This thing is in the Gulf, remember what happened to Katrina when it entered the Gulf? Rapid Intensification.

Just a minor clarification; the Katrina/Florida event was over the Atlantic and Gulf Stream.
Katrina was never in the Carib.

[Stormcenter]

You can see some sort of banding feature forming to the north and east of the "old" low center. IMO

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[Normandy]

Also the upper air support is starting to get VERY VERY good for this system.

ULL to the west and another to the east creating dual outflow channels....its starting to be in the perfect spot.