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skufful
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Re: Global Models for TD4=00z GFS run is being posted

#861 Postby skufful » Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:57 pm

Interesting off Wilmington at 126
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Re: Global Models for TD4=00z GFS run is being posted

#862 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:57 pm

looking at the 50mb trough...it is bound to pick it up in this run
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Re: Global Models for TD4=00z GFS run is being posted

#863 Postby canetracker » Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:57 pm

120 hrs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_120l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_120l.gif
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Re: Global Models for TD4=00z GFS run is being posted

#864 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:58 pm

skufful wrote:Interesting off Wilmington at 126



WTF?
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Re: Global Models for TD4=00z GFS run is being posted

#865 Postby Regit » Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:59 pm

skufful wrote:Interesting off Wilmington at 126



It gets from Puerto Rico to NC in six hours?
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Re: Global Models for TD4=00z GFS run is being posted

#866 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:59 pm

120 hours after passing directly over British Virgin Islands.
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Re: Global Models for TD4=00z GFS run is being posted

#867 Postby skufful » Tue Aug 14, 2007 12:01 am

Regit wrote:
skufful wrote:Interesting off Wilmington at 126



It gets from Puerto Rico to NC in six hours?



Appears to be home grown
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#868 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Tue Aug 14, 2007 12:01 am

?? I don't see 120.
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Re: Tropical Depression 4,Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

#869 Postby Jinkers » Tue Aug 14, 2007 12:01 am

pavelbure224 wrote:Did anyone watch Channel 10 in So Florida and hear what Max Mayfield said?


I watched it. He still said it's to far out to know where it's going go, tho the forcast models they have will probably hold true, but it's the intensities that we still can't forcast.
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Re: Global Models for TD4=00z GFS run is being posted

#870 Postby AJC3 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 12:02 am

At 96 hours, the GFS shows the lingering trough east of Florida about to get picked up by the trailing short wave trough which drops ESE from southeastern Canada and the eastern Great Lakes. Next question is whether the trough lingers long enough to catch the TC...

Well, at H120 it's looking like the trough almost catches the TC, but is staring to lift out. A very close call.

Next question...whether another short wave trough eventually drops down into the eastern CONUS or the CONUS ridge builds back over the western ATLC.

With such a "close call" type of solution, it's quite possible that we'll see the GFS going back and forth on how much of a poleward turn it progs the system to make as it gets past the islands.
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Re: Global Models for TD4=00z GFS run is being posted

#871 Postby skufful » Tue Aug 14, 2007 12:03 am

skufful wrote:
Regit wrote:
skufful wrote:Interesting off Wilmington at 126



It gets from Puerto Rico to NC in six hours?



Appears to be home grown


BTW, not talking about td4
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#872 Postby deltadog03 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 12:04 am

BTW!!! Check out the 200mb outflow channels!! That is almost a PERFECT upper levels for mad deepening!
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#873 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Tue Aug 14, 2007 12:06 am

00Z GFS= Passes the system closer to Puerto Rico than the last runs..
Last edited by HurricaneMaster_PR on Tue Aug 14, 2007 12:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Global Models for TD4=00z GFS run is being posted

#874 Postby canetracker » Tue Aug 14, 2007 12:06 am

120 hr run was too close to Puerto Rico for comfort.
126 hrs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_126l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_126l.gifhrs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_132l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_132l.gif
Last edited by canetracker on Tue Aug 14, 2007 12:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Global Models for TD4

#875 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 14, 2007 12:06 am

144...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

I doubt it's going to recurve out to sea this run.

500 mb

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144l.gif
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Re: Global Models for TD4

#876 Postby canetracker » Tue Aug 14, 2007 12:08 am

Thanks Brent, am getting tired as I have to work in the AM. Feel free to take over.
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#877 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Tue Aug 14, 2007 12:09 am

144 500

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144l.gif
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Re: Global Models for TD4

#878 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 12:09 am

Brent wrote:144...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

I doubt it's going to recurve out to sea this run.

500 mb

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144l.gif


Trough lifting out~~!!
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Re: Global Models for TD4=00z GFS run is being posted

#879 Postby fci » Tue Aug 14, 2007 12:10 am

skufful wrote:Interesting off Wilmington at 126


BTW, not talking about td4[/quote]

Sorry, confused.
If not talking about TD4 then what are you referring to since this is the TD4 Model Thread? :wink:
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Re: Global Models for TD4

#880 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 14, 2007 12:10 am

Edit: Brent, you showed the wrong run.
Last edited by Sanibel on Tue Aug 14, 2007 12:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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