INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

[HouTXmetro]

You can see some sort of banding feature forming to the north and east of the "old" low center. IMO

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

I noticed, perhaps another circualtion is trying to establish itself under the convection?

[Sanibel]

Aric's center still alive and well on shortwave IR.

[cpdaman]

ok so my 2 am update prediction has been shot down.........ha ha oh well i have my moments apparently that isn't one

but on the other hand i am not sure why with the slower motion this system has and the possibility of very good supporting atmospheric conditions why people aren't as worried about this things potential more?

is it because it formed in the shadow of TD 4 and was designated like an appetizer b4 the main event

even now that it appears it may have more time over water

[Sean in New Orleans]

It's turning into a storm...outflow has development, as well as wrap around storms. It should become a storm later today, IMO. Depending on conditions, it could become a small hurricane before striking Texas or North Mexico...we'll see.

[Aric Dunn]

The center pointed out earlier still has not fired any deep convection over it, and now deep convection is firing over the Channel away from the LLC. A reformation seems likely.....and itll need one in order to deepen.

Aric your LLC is fading

but of course ... was expecting it to .. but the center is going to be very hard to find in the middle of the night .. radar loops still show "A" center north of the Yucatan its been slowly moving northward .. which means its probably reforming or trying to but the convection I think is just not persistent enough .. once we get that then a center should persist as well

[Aric Dunn]

i'll post one last radar loop.. but its hard to see where it is unless you can see the entire evoultion .. i guess you all will have to use the old loops i made a look at them separately

[Extremeweatherguy]

I would estimate the center near 22-23N and 18-19W ATM. Convection looks to be curving around it on shortwave IR...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

This might be the dying "old" one though. The NHC overlay now shows a 1006mb low NE of that center in the convection.

[Aric Dunn]

Also the upper air support is starting to get VERY VERY good for this system.

ULL to the west and another to the east creating dual outflow channels....its starting to be in the perfect spot.

its at least possible its all about the positioning

[Normandy]

The center pointed out earlier still has not fired any deep convection over it, and now deep convection is firing over the Channel away from the LLC. A reformation seems likely.....and itll need one in order to deepen.

Aric your LLC is fading

but of course ... was expecting it to .. but the center is going to be very hard to find in the middle of the night .. radar loops still show "A" center north of the Yucatan its been slowly moving northward .. which means its probably reforming or trying to but the convection I think is just not persistent enough .. once we get that then a center should persist as well

Na I know, just poking fun at you. Its clearly evident that the convection that is firing over the Channel seems like a focus for any kind of low level center....Vorticity is best there and convection is firing there....also appears as if the outflow is improving a bit. And cpadam believe me im FAR more worried about this ATM then TD4. However, TD4 could be dangerous in a few days.


And Aric yes, placement of the center is important. i think if it forms where I think it will, thats pretty ideal placement. Any further west would mean shear.

[Aric Dunn]

Ok this one is funny!! since we dont have enough showers to track on the radar its really hard to locate anything but I used my long loop and found the original low (in Blue) then the big circle is the are where one could relocate ??

Like i said its really difficult at the moment till we get some visible images. I personally cant really tell with the low quality radar.. it only works when there is enough storms ..

but you notice the slight increase in the bands through the channel

so maybe farther north a center might reform ?? Im going to bed waiting till visible to see whats going on

[Aric Dunn]

we are also in the eclipse right now for a little while longer ... so no images

this is the last image i have

[Aric Dunn]

Oh my look at that ridge building over IT if it can ever get a defined center it really could intensify a little faster than expected.

[HouTXmetro]

No more new images until when?

[Aric Dunn]

No more new images until when?

.
not sure.. just know we are in it briefly tonight i imagine sometime soon

[vaffie]

I don't know if you guys saw this but there was a ship report at (24.5N, 87.3W)--90 miles north of my IR satellite estimate of the storm center (23.0, 87.0) at 0300Z (10 pm central time) (2.5 hours ago) showing a pressure of 1008 mb and a due east wind of 18 knots.

[Opal storm]

I'm not buying into all the hype with this disturbance, it looks pathetic right now. IMO it's probably just going to mean squally weather and rough surf for Mexico/Texas...maybe a weak TS at best.

[vaffie]

Satellite's back and it's looking better. Looks like we will have a major convective blow-up overnight. May look very different by morning.

[vaffie]

Large pressure fall reported just to the northwest of the system by a ship reporting in the last hour--down to 1009 mb (with a pressure tendency of -3 mb). Further northwest, the 42001 buoy is reporting a pressure tendency of -4.1 mb--down now to 1011.4 mb.

13/22 3FPQ9 24.2 -88.3 28.4 24.0 100 20 1009.0 -3.0 30.0 3FPQ9
13/22 42001 25.9 -89.7 29.8 25.2 070 8 G 10 070 12 1011.4 -4.1 30.9 0.5 5 42001

May indicate that, taking into consideration diurnal fluctuations and movement, that the storm's pressure may have fallen 2 or more mb since the 00Z guidance to 1004 mb or less. Now that the convection is building over the new center however, we may see more rapid pressure falls.

[HouTXmetro]

I'm with yuu buddy for about another 30 minutes then I'm off to bed. That ULL looks like it will come ashore along the Central TX coast. Wonder if 91 L will follow.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

NRL imagery is back from eclipse:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc07/A ... LATEST.jpg