INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

[cpdaman]

opal do you like your crow blackened or grilled ( i will have my chef with me thru atleast wednesday)

[HouTXmetro]

The low has been repositioned to the NE according to the NHC. This means less shear, don't know if the track changes should the system develops.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

[vaffie]

The question I wish I knew the answer to is regarding track and timing. It appears that it may have reformed half a degree north and slightly east of the 00Z estimate--it's hard to tell though. If so, it would indicate just by continuity that it would make landfall half a degree further north--a difference of 30 miles. Not much, but it could definitely affect angle of movement, etc. It also has given itself a few hours extra to strengthen by stalling north of the Yucatan. By becoming a deeper system than the models are forecasting, it's track will change too. It will be interesting.

[HouTXmetro]

The question I wish I knew the answer to is regarding track and timing. It appears that it may have reformed half a degree north and slightly east of the 00Z estimate--it's hard to tell though. If so, it would indicate just by continuity that it would make landfall half a degree further north--a difference of 30 miles. Not much, but it could definitely affect angle of movement, etc. It also has given itself a few hours extra to strengthen by stalling north of the Yucatan. By becoming a deeper system than the models are forecasting, it's track will change too. It will be interesting.

I'm not positive we are not done with center reformation. The Convection isn't deep enough to establish a well defined LLC just yet. But I agree, the sytem is buying itself more time.

[weatherguru18]

You know I'm really upset about this thing developing. I had an important meeting set up for Wednesday and if this develops (regaurdless of landfall location) the meeting is off. I've looked forward to this for weeks. The season has been dead all season long and it waited until NOW! Thanks a lot mother nature more screwing up my plans! Any other time it would have been fine...sorry, I just had to vent.

[SouthFloridawx]

This is gonna be Dean...

[srainhoutx]

Remember the slow and steady presistance this system has had for 7 days now. I do not see any change in that at this time. The further away ULL moves and the longer broad low pressure lingers, the more this system developes in my humble opinion.

[vaffie]

It still looks sheared to the east, though not as much as earlier today of course. It may still reform a center again tonight to the northeast of the present one. Pressures may also continue to fall.

[Normandy]

Very evident mid-level turning north of the main convection....one blowup over this feature should do it imo.

[vaffie]

Any idea when the 6Z Bams come out?

[Downdraft]

Any idea when the 6Z Bams come out?

Bams is a better deep tropics model. I don't put much faith in it for the Gulf.

[vaffie]

Any idea when the 6Z Bams come out?

Bams is a better deep tropics model. I don't put much faith in it for the Gulf.

I know and agree, but I wanted more to see what they initialize the speed and strength at, and also how much of a northerly adjustment the Bam models make in light of reformation--gives me a feeling for how much has changed.

[Brent]

Sorry folks, I'm not impressed with this AT ALL. It looks very disorganized and downright ugly. Things can change but right now it is not developing and it doesn't have a whole lot of time.

[HouTXmetro]

Ok... I'm going to bed, finally.

[Texashawk]

And keep in mind that it's reforming around the so-called 'loop current'... which is heating up nicely this time of year...

[Coredesat]

Reforming? There was nothing here to begin with, just a tropical wave being sheared by a ULL. The ULL is quickly exiting to the W toward the Texas coast, leaving a disorganized mess without any semblance of a circulation on QuikSCAT or satellite imagery, and there was nothing on visible earlier.

[Texashawk]

True enough. I should say, 'reattempting to form.'

BTW, I'm very new to this board (obviously) but hurricanes are my passion and I'm even writing a novel about one! I may not be right but I'll never say you're wrong, so cheers and let's talk tropics!!

Reforming? There was nothing here to begin with, just a tropical wave being sheared by a ULL. The ULL is quickly exiting to the W toward the Texas coast, leaving a disorganized mess without any semblance of a circulation on QuikSCAT or satellite imagery, and there was nothing on visible earlier.

[tailgater]

Looking at the shortwave imagery(not reliable) I would think the center that showed up North of Cancun has moved almost due west. SW of where the floater for 91L currently shows it. Could be a new one forming farther north of Cancun where the classic two blobs are trying to rotate around each other

[Frank P]

you can see a broad area of rotation off the north central Yucatan coast with this IR loop link...plenty of convection on the eastern side of this center located around 22.3 and 89, appears to be moving off to the w or wnw....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

[Air Force Met]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON AUG 14 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOUR...LOCATED ABOUT 1660 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
LOW THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.