CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[ExBailbonds]

Just imagine a track like that. The damage to the coastal parts of miami dade, broward, palm beach would be insane!!

[Aquawind]

Dag nab it!!!!! That is not at all what I wanted to see this morning. The stupid thing parked right over my house at hr 216.

Yeah, I know the models will change a few more times - but what a way to wake up!

LOL.. no doubt the nastiest run yet..

Change is gooood.

[Aquawind]

Latest QS pass at 8:26 UTC shows 40kt to 50kt uncontaminated barbs SW of the center:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas26.png

nice catch.. upgrade today alrighty..

[cycloneye]

Now the big question is: What the 12z run will bring? Landfall in Brownsville,Destin,Miami,SC/NC,New York City,Cape Cod
or it will go fishing.

[Thunder44]

Latest QS pass at 8:26 UTC shows 40kt to 50kt uncontaminated barbs SW of the center:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas26.png

nice catch.. upgrade today alrighty..

Close up NRL shows some flags up to 55kts.

[jlauderdal]

Dag nab it!!!!! That is not at all what I wanted to see this morning. The stupid thing parked right over my house at hr 216.

Yeah, I know the models will change a few more times - but what a way to wake up!

history has proven being in the bullseye this far out is a good thing if you don't want the system

[KG4HPN]

Not exactly an analagous situation, but check out Hurricane King from the 1950's.


Florida used Hurricane King for it's Hurricane Z exercise a few years ago. Even up into Volusia County it did extensive damage.

They say the trend is our friend. Let's hope this starts trending fishwise!

-Jet

[boca]

Cycloneye I was going to say either Brownsville, TX or Bermuda on the GFS12z run. I justed showed my wife the GFS 06z run and she s**t. I told her that the models change so that helped.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like my center placement was right. Now this system is very well organized, in may start strengthing fairly nicely.

[TheShrimper]

Thanks Jim, I didn't know anything about conal percentages this far out, I'll have to remember that. TheShrimper.

[tgenius]

Boy that 6z is looking horrible!

I know long range models aren't as reliable, but thats 180 hrs out... its a bit more credible than a 300 hr GFS point right?

I just thought while I was in the shower... thats also notoriously close to August 24th; 15 year anniv. of Andrew

[Aquawind]

251
WHXX04 KWBC 140601
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR 04L

INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 14

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.1 34.4 270./17.1
6 12.0 35.1 258./ 6.8
12 12.2 36.3 281./11.7
18 12.3 37.6 273./12.9
24 12.2 39.1 268./14.2
30 12.1 40.7 263./15.8
36 11.9 42.3 264./16.0
42 11.9 43.9 271./15.9
48 11.8 45.2 263./11.9
54 11.9 46.5 276./13.7
60 12.1 48.0 279./14.0
66 12.4 49.2 282./12.2
72 12.7 50.3 284./11.1
78 13.0 51.4 285./11.7
84 13.4 52.5 291./10.7
90 13.9 53.4 300./10.4
96 14.4 54.3 298./10.5
102 15.1 55.4 304./12.5
108 15.8 56.3 307./11.3
114 16.6 57.4 306./12.7
120 17.4 58.4 309./12.7
126 18.2 59.6 305./13.8

[KBBOCA]

Well well! That will surely have Florida buzzing today! Glad it's still so far out and with so much time to change track. The way the models shifted around yesterday, I'm not too worried at this point.

But hopefully this is a good wake up call to help folks finish whatever needed storm preparations they've been putting off.

[Meso]

[cycloneye]

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS CENTERED NEAR 12.0N 36.8W AT 14/0900
UTC MOVING W AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE W OF THE CENTER DUE TO
EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 37W-42W. THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RATHER BRISKLY IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD
MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY.


8 AM Discussion from TPC.

[meteorologyman]

This is kind of funny but sad too, 1st day of school for Florida is in 6 days (Monday). As soon as they start school. 1 to 3 days l8r school may be cancel because of Hurricane Dean, if school starts at all and if this all pans out this way.

[punkyg]

Maybe by 11am they'll name it or maybe they'll wait till 5pm

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

With soild quickscat data of 45-50 knot winds. I would say its very likely it will be 11am...

[jlauderdal]

Thanks Jim, I didn't know anything about conal percentages this far out, I'll have to remember that. TheShrimper.

thanks shrimper,

im doing my annual public service trying to help calm the nerves of my fellow floridians. however last night someone asked on this board how long i have been watching storms since they didn't like my post and I had to admit to the fact not long and its really a learning process for me but I am doing best to get the hang of it.

thx

[Downdraft]

Thanks Jim, I didn't know anything about conal percentages this far out, I'll have to remember that. TheShrimper.

thanks shrimper,

im doing my annual public service trying to help calm the nerves of my fellow floridians. however last night someone asked on this board how long i have been watching storms since they didn't like my post and I had to admit to the fact not long and its really a learning process for me but I am doing best to get the hang of it.

thx

You don't have to explain yourself to some in here. I've been watching storms for 35 years and I don't care if they like my posts or not. All of this speculation predicting doom and gloom (especially for Florida) for a storm that's still so far out is a total waste of gray matter. CV storms are like elections on television. You get so sick of hearing about them you can't wait till they are over. I'll start worrying about a landfall when I see myself in the "3" day cone. Nothing to get prepared for I did that in May when I was supposed to. Guessing a forecast track now is all great fun but preaching Armeggedon for one area only qualifies you to get a lot less readers in the future. For those that seriously want to study tropical weather you'll find there is a lot more to base a future landfall on then to guess based on a model that is over 200 hours out!