INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

[HouTXmetro]

Can someone post the latest models?

[PauleinHouston]

I'm by now means an expert to this, but hey, we all have our opinions. As a definite LLC has formed and evident via the gulf floater before we get the good images, I also see, based on WV and IR loops what appears to be a mid level circulation center near 87.2W/22.5N. Images appear to be showing interaction with both circulation centers IMHO.

At any rate, thought I'd throw that out there for everyone's comments.

[canetracker]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_91.gif

[tailgater]

very well-defined LLC now just SW of the convection

I doubt that this reforms to the NE now

Derek do still think relocation is doubtful, the area @ 23N 87W continues to refire? Just a question don't read anything into it.

[HouTXmetro]

That LLC looks like it's getting sheared from the SE.

[HURAKAN]

Slideshow of 91L

[Extremeweatherguy]

You can make out the center very well on shortwave IR this morning...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

...It looks to be getting much better organized as it moves northwestward and is definitely be more convective on the NE side.

[HURAKAN]

First visible, well almost!!!

[Derek Ortt]

this thing has lollygagged during the last 24 hours pushing landfall time well back


would not be surprised to see a landfalling hurricane out of this since conditions are becoming obscenely favorable

[HouTXmetro]

this thing has lollygagged during the last 24 hours pushing landfall time well back


would not be surprised to see a landfalling hurricane out of this since conditions are becoming obscenely favorable

I figured it wouldn't move too fast with the ULL in front.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Derek, is this one of those cases where the stronger it gets the further north it makes landfall? or should this generally stay on a similar track (toward south Texas) either way?

[matigre]

Any thoughts on the rain content once it closes in on the coast? Is this going to be a slow mover with steady, heavy rain? Thank you--

[NONAME]

Remember that Recon Looks for a closed low-level circulation so if they find one it should be a tropical depression.

[HouTXmetro]

Derek, is this one of those cases where the stronger it gets the further north it makes landfall? or should this generally stay on a similar track (toward south Texas) either way?

Unless the convection can find and maintain itself over the center I wouldn't count on too much strengthening.

Any thoughts on the competing LLC and Vigorous MLC to it's East under the convection. Is reformation possible or will the system likley continue to remain unstacked?

[punkyg]

Slideshow of 91L

In one of the frames it looked like the center was over land.

[HURAKAN]

GFDL thinking.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... 5d#a_topad

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Since NOAA imagery has been out to lunch lately, here are some alternatives:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc07/A ... LATEST.jpg
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... ntvis.html

[Chacor]

Weakened to 25 kt 1007 mbar at 12Z.

[HURAKAN]

Looks good for TD 5 at 11 AM, lets see what the NHC thinks.

[CrazyC83]

I'd say it is TD5 now. But Recon will need to confirm it.

This might be Dean as it has much more favorable conditions than TD4 does (that is expected to be a slow builder)...