INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

[weatherrabbit_tx]

looking better with each frame, the feeder bands are starting to form ( of course early stages)

[Extremeweatherguy]

I hope recon does fly today! I really want to see what kind of winds they find in that convection NE of the center. It wouldn't surprise me if this was already a minimal tropical storm.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I guess the USAF is busy. One of tomorrow's GOMEX missions will be flown by the NOAA WP-3D.


A good deal for them, actually. I read a few years back when they are tasked for recon missions, the money doesn't come out of their limited scientific budget for the year, but from a different account, so any scientific research they can do while flying recon is a bonus.

[TexWx]

WCX7445 - ship

wind SSE: 30 mph
pressure: 1006.7 mb

[miamicanes177]

The TCHP and SST's in the GOM far exceed what we had August 14, 2005. The lack of activity has allowed warming to dangerous levels.

[PauleinHouston]

This thing is just more or less parked in my opinion! Although a LLC has formed and is now pulling away from the deeper convection center, I still believe a new center is going to form near 87.2W/22.5N. Feeder bands, or the beginning of them, are appearing around this area and there's some nice outflow showing up E/NE quadrant as well.

Curious to see what the plane sees once it's out there! As for development, if center is indeed found more north/northeasterly, it's already over the warmer waters which explains the convective blow-up this morning. As for landfall, don't see it tomorrow...most likely Thurs mid-dayish in MHO.

[vaffie]

This thing is just more or less parked in my opinion! Although a LLC has formed and is now pulling away from the deeper convection center, I still believe a new center is going to form near 87.2W/22.5N. Feeder bands, or the beginning of them, are appearing around this area and there's some nice outflow showing up E/NE quadrant as well.

Curious to see what the plane sees once it's out there! As for development, if center is indeed found more north/northeasterly, it's already over the warmer waters which explains the convective blow-up this morning. As for landfall, don't see it tomorrow...most likely Thurs mid-dayish in MHO.

It is a possibility. We'll have to see. That IS where the lowest pressure was measured in the last hour--the 1006.7 mb measurement with a 30 mph wind at 23.5, 86.8. Just to the south of the estimated center a ship reported a 1008 mb reading an hour ago, so it is possible that the area with the highest convection to the northeast--where we're discussing--may take over as the new center--since pressures are so low and presumably falling.

[Tireman4]

And to think that this weekend we were in the midst of a heat wave that would last until Friday. Now we have tropical troubles to think about. Interesting.

[Steve]

>>It is a possibility. We'll have to see. That IS where the lowest pressure was measured in the last hour--the 1006.7 mb measurement with a 30 mph wind at 23.5, 86.8. Just to the south of the estimated center a ship reported a 1008 mb reading an hour ago, so it is possible that the area with the highest convection to the northeast--where we're discussing--may take over as the new center--since pressures are so low and presumably falling.

If this goes down as suggested, I could be a little south on my South Padre-Corpus-King's Ranch landfall which brings in the possibility for some moisture training off the Gulf to points further north up da Tejas coast.

We'll have to wait and see if there is a new center forming. IMHO, as per usual with these types of systems in a pattern reversal, there probably are (and/or will be) multiple vortices.

Steve

[tailgater]

Could some tell the guy holding the camera for these GHCC visible shots to keep still! I guess those solar winds must be bad today.

[Steve]

Yeah I know, it's driving me nuts. The most recent shot I could find (visible) was a 14:02UTC. Not to go off on a political rant here, but our satellites and planes are funded by us for us. Someone ought to fire somebody!

Steve

[HurricaneRobert]

The TCHP and SST's in the GOM far exceed what we had August 14, 2005. The lack of activity has allowed warming to dangerous levels.

I've heard somewhere that TC activity in the GOM has very little effect on SST. The water is so shallow that it warms and cools really quickly. There was very little cold water upwelling when Katrina passed through, so the cool water left in her wake was short-lived. Isn't that also what's responsible for the higher SST in both the GOM and Caribbean?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest visible loop seems to indicate that the old LLC is finally diminishing and that a new one may be forming to the NE...

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis

..one way you can tell is that clouds seem to be moving north to south across the old center now, a sure sign that a new center is probably taking over further east or northeast.

[jwayne]

NAM appears to have fairly strong system landfall near matagorda. Is that correct?

[jasons2k]

>>It is a possibility. We'll have to see. That IS where the lowest pressure was measured in the last hour--the 1006.7 mb measurement with a 30 mph wind at 23.5, 86.8. Just to the south of the estimated center a ship reported a 1008 mb reading an hour ago, so it is possible that the area with the highest convection to the northeast--where we're discussing--may take over as the new center--since pressures are so low and presumably falling.

If this goes down as suggested, I could be a little south on my South Padre-Corpus-King's Ranch landfall which brings in the possibility for some moisture training off the Gulf to points further north up da Tejas coast.

We'll have to wait and see if there is a new center forming. IMHO, as per usual with these types of systems in a pattern reversal, there probably are (and/or will be) multiple vortices.

Steve

If you look closely at the visibles, you can indeed see multiple vortices circulating around what appears to be a weak, broad center to the SW of the convection. One is near 22/90.5 and another is near 22.5/89.5...

[Weatherfreak000]

It's going to be a race for 91L to formulate a new LLC before recon gets out there is we want an upgrade at 5PM today.


I feel pretty confident, 75% shot we'll see that happen.

[HouTXmetro]

So recon is going?

[RL3AO]

Update please? Is a new low forming?

[HURAKAN]

So recon is going?

According to what we know it's not cancelled, so they're going.

[HouTXmetro]

Update please? Is a new low forming?

I don't know. But it's going to be hard for the existing LLC to strengthen while naked.