CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads
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Weatherboy1
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meteorologyman -- Andrew in 1992 resulted in the first day of school being cancelled that August even in Palm Beach County (which didn't suffer much damage at all due to the storm being so compact). I still remember going to the beach that day after dawn and watching helicopter after helicopter fly south to survey the immense damage.
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destruction92
- Category 1
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean (pg.27) - Discussions, Analysis and Sats
WHoa, whoa, whoa! Hold up here! I don't see any mention of TS DEAN ON THE NHC WEBSITE...LOOK FOR YOURSELF... http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents
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Brent
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Re: Tropical Depression 4 Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 14 2007
...DEAN FORMS IN THE DEEP TROPICS...MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES...
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1030
MILES...1660 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
ABOUT 1490 MILES...2400 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...11.7 N...39.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007
SATELLITE IMAGES...MICROWAVE DATA AND QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS INDICATE
THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM STATUS AND ALSO THAT
THE CENTER IS LOCATED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED. DEAN HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OVER
THE CENTER BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS STILL LOCATED TO THE WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS CONFINED TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST SINCE THE CYCLONE IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN EASTERLY
SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AND MOST OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS DEAN. IN FACT...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT DEAN COULD BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES AS A HURRICANE
WITH 100 TO 110 KNOTS IN FIVE DAYS.
DEAN APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD OR 265 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS EXPANDING
WESTWARD. IN THE SHORT TERM...2 TO 3 DAYS...DEAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE
SOME RELIABLE MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND KEEP
THE CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND OTHERS SHOW A
WEAKER RIDGE RESULTING IN A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS AND IS A LITTLE BIT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...DUE TO THE REPOSITIONING OF THE
CENTER...AND NOT BECAUSE WE HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST REASONING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/1500Z 11.7N 39.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 11.8N 42.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 11.8N 45.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 16/0000Z 11.8N 48.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 16/1200Z 12.0N 51.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 17/1200Z 13.5N 56.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 18/1200Z 15.5N 61.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 19/1200Z 17.5N 65.0W 95 KT
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 14 2007
...DEAN FORMS IN THE DEEP TROPICS...MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES...
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1030
MILES...1660 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
ABOUT 1490 MILES...2400 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...11.7 N...39.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007
SATELLITE IMAGES...MICROWAVE DATA AND QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS INDICATE
THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM STATUS AND ALSO THAT
THE CENTER IS LOCATED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED. DEAN HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OVER
THE CENTER BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS STILL LOCATED TO THE WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS CONFINED TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST SINCE THE CYCLONE IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN EASTERLY
SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AND MOST OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS DEAN. IN FACT...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT DEAN COULD BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES AS A HURRICANE
WITH 100 TO 110 KNOTS IN FIVE DAYS.
DEAN APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD OR 265 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS EXPANDING
WESTWARD. IN THE SHORT TERM...2 TO 3 DAYS...DEAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE
SOME RELIABLE MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND KEEP
THE CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND OTHERS SHOW A
WEAKER RIDGE RESULTING IN A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS AND IS A LITTLE BIT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...DUE TO THE REPOSITIONING OF THE
CENTER...AND NOT BECAUSE WE HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST REASONING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/1500Z 11.7N 39.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 11.8N 42.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 11.8N 45.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 16/0000Z 11.8N 48.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 16/1200Z 12.0N 51.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 17/1200Z 13.5N 56.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 18/1200Z 15.5N 61.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 19/1200Z 17.5N 65.0W 95 KT
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Last edited by Brent on Tue Aug 14, 2007 3:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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HurricaneMaster_PR
- Category 2
- Posts: 795
- Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2003 6:23 pm
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Tropical Storm Dean (pg.27) - Discussions, Analysis and Sats
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 14 2007
...DEAN FORMS IN THE DEEP TROPICS...MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES...
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1030
MILES...1660 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
ABOUT 1490 MILES...2400 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...11.7 N...39.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 14 2007
...DEAN FORMS IN THE DEEP TROPICS...MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES...
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1030
MILES...1660 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
ABOUT 1490 MILES...2400 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...11.7 N...39.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re:
x-y-no wrote:I'm still not seeing the official upgrade yet ... There's no mention of "Dean" on the graphical product linked above.
If the advisory is out, somebody please post it because I'm still seeing TD4.
I didn't change the topic title, I've been focussing on Flossie recon. Someone else must have done.
EDIT: Moot point now.
Last edited by Chacor on Tue Aug 14, 2007 9:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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chadtm80
x-y-no wrote:I'm still not seeing the official upgrade yet ... There's no mention of "Dean" on the graphical product linked above.
If the advisory is out, somebody please post it because I'm still seeing TD4.
Its here.. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml
You must put your mouse over the Icon in the Graphical TWO
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JonathanBelles
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 11430
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
- Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
- Contact:
Re: Tropical Storm Dean (pg.27) - Discussions, Analysis and Sats
I see dean...11.7n 39.4w W @23 mph 1004mb 40 mph
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean (pg.27) - Discussions, Analysis and Sats
Since when did Avila become the most aggressive forecaster at the NHC? Up to 95 knots...and he has relocated the center into the deep convection...
The QSCAT pass was some pretty heavy evidence I would guess...interested to read the discussion.
Perfect! Nicely done, Steve. Never have a political ramble and a tropical cyclone forecast statement fit together so perfectly...
MW
The QSCAT pass was some pretty heavy evidence I would guess...interested to read the discussion.
STEVE said...
"I'm going to Florida!
And then it's Georgia!
And then I'm heading to Alabama, South Carolina, Virginia and Michigan!!!!"
AIIIIIIIIIEEEEEEE
Perfect! Nicely done, Steve. Never have a political ramble and a tropical cyclone forecast statement fit together so perfectly...
MW
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KBBOCA
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- Joined: Fri Sep 05, 2003 5:27 am
- Location: Formerly Boca Raton, often West Africa. Currently Charlotte NC
Weather Underground has the new 5 day forecast map out based on the 11 a.m. update
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad
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CourierPR
- Category 5
- Posts: 1335
- Age: 71
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:53 pm
- Location: Pompano Beach, Florida
Re: TD 4 - Discussions, Analysis and Sats
WTVJ NBC6 Miami just said new advisory on TS Dean is on its way.
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Brent
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean (pg.27) - Discussions, Analysis and Sats
Looks to be just east of PR at 120 hours.
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean (pg.27) - Discussions, Analysis and Sats
Brent wrote:Looks to be just east of PR at 120 hours.
oh boy that new track and intensity doesn't look good for PR at all
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean (pg.27) - Discussions, Analysis and Sats
MWatkins wrote:Since when did Avila become the most aggressive forecaster at the NHC? Up to 95 knots...and he has relocated the center into the deep convection...
The QSCAT pass was some pretty heavy evidence I would guess...interested to read the discussion.STEVE said...
"I'm going to Florida!
And then it's Georgia!
And then I'm heading to Alabama, South Carolina, Virginia and Michigan!!!!"
AIIIIIIIIIEEEEEEE
Kudos Steve!!
Perfect! Nicely done, Steve. Never have a political ramble and a tropical cyclone forecast statement fit together so perfectly...
MW
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Evil Jeremy
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Re: Evil Jeremy's Tropical Depression 4 Forecasts
EJ’s Forecasts
Advisory 2
TD4
10:30AMEDT
(Please remember that those numbers are not official, and they are my interpretation on the current system using Computer models and other sources)
While the NHC is still calling this system Tropical Depression 4, the NRL is calling it Tropical Storm Dean, so it is likely that the TD will be upgraded at 11:00AMEDT. So, for this advisory of mine, I will treat this as “Tropical Storm Dean”, since it is not official… yet.
This time yesterday, most, if not all of the computer models were forecasting TSDean to pass under and through the islands of the Caribbean in 5 days, and last night the models shifted north of the models, However, the computer models this morning show TSDean passing through the islands, mainly Puerto Rico, and, unfortunally, pointing the storm at the SEUSA as a hurricane. My track has been adjusted as such.
TSDean should continue racing across the Atlantic Ocean, but at a slightly slower speed that yesterday, over the next few days, before turning WNW and eventually NW into or around Puerto Rico and some surrounding islands. Dean is currently moving westward at about 21 MPH.
Intensity wise, TSDean stands at about 40 MPH, with a pressure of 1004 MB.
The future intensity of the storm depends on how fast it will move along the Atlantic, and when the easterly shear will completely go away. Once it moves into the Caribbean, rapid intensification is possible. Some of the models, such as the new, experimental HWRF, eventually shows the storm grow to Major Hurricane strength in the Caribbean.
For now, I am using the NHC’s center position, because it is hard to make it out on satellite. The current position is 12.0N and 36.8W
All interests along the Caribbean and the SE USA should monitor this system.
INITIAL 40 MPH
12HR 45 MPH
24HR 50 MPH
48HR 60 MPH
72HR 70 MPH
96HR 85 MPH
120HR 100 MPH
Advisory 2
TD4
10:30AMEDT
(Please remember that those numbers are not official, and they are my interpretation on the current system using Computer models and other sources)
While the NHC is still calling this system Tropical Depression 4, the NRL is calling it Tropical Storm Dean, so it is likely that the TD will be upgraded at 11:00AMEDT. So, for this advisory of mine, I will treat this as “Tropical Storm Dean”, since it is not official… yet.
This time yesterday, most, if not all of the computer models were forecasting TSDean to pass under and through the islands of the Caribbean in 5 days, and last night the models shifted north of the models, However, the computer models this morning show TSDean passing through the islands, mainly Puerto Rico, and, unfortunally, pointing the storm at the SEUSA as a hurricane. My track has been adjusted as such.
TSDean should continue racing across the Atlantic Ocean, but at a slightly slower speed that yesterday, over the next few days, before turning WNW and eventually NW into or around Puerto Rico and some surrounding islands. Dean is currently moving westward at about 21 MPH.
Intensity wise, TSDean stands at about 40 MPH, with a pressure of 1004 MB.
The future intensity of the storm depends on how fast it will move along the Atlantic, and when the easterly shear will completely go away. Once it moves into the Caribbean, rapid intensification is possible. Some of the models, such as the new, experimental HWRF, eventually shows the storm grow to Major Hurricane strength in the Caribbean.
For now, I am using the NHC’s center position, because it is hard to make it out on satellite. The current position is 12.0N and 36.8W
All interests along the Caribbean and the SE USA should monitor this system.
INITIAL 40 MPH
12HR 45 MPH
24HR 50 MPH
48HR 60 MPH
72HR 70 MPH
96HR 85 MPH
120HR 100 MPH
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Canelaw99
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean (pg.28) - Discussions, Analysis and Sats
Ugh....history says either southern FL or fishy....which will it be Dean 'ole boy????
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_climo.html#a_topad
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_climo.html#a_topad
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