INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

[Air Force Met]

very well-defined LLC now just SW of the convection

I doubt that this reforms to the NE now

Derek do still think relocation is doubtful, the area @ 23N 87W continues to refire? Just a question don't read anything into it.

I am not sure a relocation is the right term here. I do, however, think this system is ripe to pull the center towards the convection. It has the look: A weak LLC with light southerly shear over the center and all of the convection to the North and east. The LLC is also elongated. It looks to me like it could easily get pulled Northward towards the convection near 25N...even before it crosses 91 or 92W. Like I said last night...I think it will mimic what Claudette did in terms of the center moving northward towards the convection...it just won't do it as much because it is moving a bit faster.

[Portastorm]

Given the obvious development of 91L in the last 12 hours, I'm really surprised that NHC has not even named it a TD yet. You would think they'd error on the side of caution considering its proximity to offshore oil interests as well as population centers along the Gulf.

I've seen them tag a system looking a lot worse than this ...

[Extremeweatherguy]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141505
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON AUG 14 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM DEAN...LOCATED ABOUT 1490 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. A
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO CHECK THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ALL INTERESTS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN TEXAS AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COASTAL AREAS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND BE READY TO TAKE ACTIONS. TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE PROMPTLY REQUIRED FOR A PORTION
OF THE COAST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Derek Ortt]

I am not so sure this won't end up intensifying faster than Caludette did. Claudette was only under low shear for about 12 hours and it was about to undergo RI.

This seems to me to be like Charley 1998 which went from a TD to a enar cane in less than 24 hours... and this may have about 36-42 more hours over the water

[HURAKAN]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT TUE 14 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-083

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 15/1200,1500Z
B. NOAA2X 02EEA CYCLONE
C. 15/0930Z
D. 24.9N 94.9W
E. 15/1100Z TO 15/1530Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. REMARKS: ORIGINALLY AN AF MISSION FOR 15/0900Z.

FLIGHT TWO
A. 15/1800,16/0000Z
B. AFXXX 03EEA CYCLONE
C. 15/1530Z
D. 25.5N 95.6W
E. 15/1700Z TO 16/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: NEGATIVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO,
BUT BEGIN FIXING TD 04 AT 16/1800Z NEAR 13.5N 53.5W

[miamicanes177]

And Derek remember Wilma 2005 went from tropical storm to cat 5 in 1 day. That was a rare event though but just goes to show anything can happen. Texas folks need to be paying attention to this one.

[Brent]

Erin???

And I thought 8 hours ago this thing looked dead.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Based on the general direction this has been moving, I think that this is probably the most likely track for this system ATM...



...anyone else agree?

The last run of models seemed to be a bit too far south to me. I just do not see this hitting Mexico with it's current WNW to NW motion...especially if the center relocates further NE (which I believe is currently happening).

[HouTXmetro]

Convection starting to intensify.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[gatorcane]

Extremeweather guy -- you may finally see something over in Texas......I don't expect it to be more than some T.S winds and rain...but you never know..

[HURAKAN]

Erin???

And I thought 8 hours ago this thing looked dead.

Always wait for DMAX to occur before making a call like that!!! That's what I have learned!!

[Evil Jeremy]

TD at 5 probably,

[Steve]

>>And I thought 8 hours ago this thing looked dead.

You are one of the posters who is often guilty of posting in absolute terms. And you know that the tropical world is full of surprises. Nothing wrong with being definitive about systems except that they're usually going to prove you wrong when you try to pigeonhole them or declare their fate.

JMO

Steve

[RL3AO]

CODE RED

[cyclonic chronic]

based on vis sat, seems like there is a nice anti-cyclone over the system

[skysummit]

I would not be surprised for this to be a minimal hurricane at landfall. Things are improving pretty quickly right now.

[Extremeweatherguy]

the center looks to have definitely shifted NE now..

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis

The cloud movements now seem to indicate that it is possibly near or under that new burst of convection on the SW side of the system.

[cyclonic chronic]

I would not be surprised for this to be a minimal hurricane at landfall. Things are improving pretty quickly right now.

id have to say that the enviornment aloft and sst's could support moderate intensification, IF there is really a closed low at the surface

[Hyperstorm]

Folks, this system could be a VERY rapid developer. I agree with Derek that this system reminds me of the beginnings of Charley in 1998. The pattern is also quite similar as an upper-low is retrograding westward leaving an environment that is VERY favorable for intensification. With some of the warmest SSTs in the basin and a ridiculously favorable environment setting up, this system can explode into something dangerous. The only limiting thing right now is TIME, but there is plenty of room to strengthen. I just hope we don't see an Alice situation setting up with what looks like the MLC becoming the dominant feature.

Folks south of Corpus Christi in Texas don't have much time waste and NEED to begin preparations TODAY. If the NHC forecasts a category 1 at landfall, prepare for a category higher. You don't want to be caught off guard...

[Steve]

Time for a new thread IMHO.

Steve