INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

[cyclonic chronic]

Who knows what a system in the Gulf of Mexico in August could do, even if it only has a few days.

look at what katrina did in the gulf in "a few days"

[Hyperstorm]

Too much talk about center relocation. This is the same center it always was. Today's location shows it was near the coast last night where we were saying it was.

The center is the center of that swirl at low level around 22.6N-90W

Tracking NW now. Still sheared off to the NE by the flow around the ULL.

I don't think it has relocated or reformed, but based on satellite cloud movement I do think it may have shifted slightly NE..closer to the deeper convection.

There is a huge area of high pressure to the north and northeast of the developing disturbance that should not let it move NW. In fact, I would not be surprised that after a WNW move during the next 12-24 hours, the system is moving just south of due west as it makes landfall.

Sanibel, I think what you are looking at is the last night's LLC that is becoming ill-defined right now. We are currently seeing an impressive MLC near 24.7N, 88.8W that is taking shape NE of that LLC that you see on visible. If that becomes the dominant feature (which is apparent based on the elongation of the LLC), it would be situated underneath very favorable upper-level conditions.

When Air Force Recon reaches this system this afternoon, I wouldn't be surprised if the only LLC they find is the one Sanibel and others are looking at. Based on that center, we could see classification. However, give it 12 more hours we could see a relocation toward the NE. Remember the relocation of Bill in 2003? I think we're going to see something similar with future Erin.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Too much talk about center relocation. This is the same center it always was. Today's location shows it was near the coast last night where we were saying it was.

The center is the center of that swirl at low level around 22.6N-90W

Tracking NW now. Still sheared off to the NE by the flow around the ULL.

I don't think it has relocated or reformed, but based on satellite cloud movement I do think it may have shifted slightly NE..closer to the deeper convection.

There is a huge area of high pressure to the north and northeast of the developing disturbance that should not let it move NW. In fact, I would not be surprised that after a WNW move during the next 12-24 hours, the system is moving just south of due west as it makes landfall.

Sanibel, I think what you are looking at is the last night's LLC that is becoming ill-defined right now. We are currently seeing an impressive MLC near 24.7N, 88.8W that is taking shape NE of that LLC that you see on visible. If that becomes the dominant feature (which is apparent based on the elongation of the LLC), it would be situated underneath very favorable upper-level conditions.

When Air Force Recon reaches this system this afternoon, I wouldn't be surprised if the only LLC they find is the one Sanibel and others are looking at. Based on that center, we could see classification. However, give it 12 more hours we could see a relocation toward the NE. Remember the relocation of Bill in 2003? I think we're going to see something similar with future Erin.

we'll see..but as of right now it is currently moving WNW to NW according to the NHC...something it probably should not be doing because of that high.

BTW, latest GFS run suggests that the high should weaken in 24-36 hours leading to a change in steering currents...aiming the storm on more of a WNW or NW trajectory.

[cpdaman]

Wow air force met called this center being "dragged" not reforming under the deeper convection earlier, and that is exactly what it appears to be doing.

we are lucky to be privvy to this kind of insight

AFM how worried/concerned are you about this things potential to intensify

and also wether this system will now start to pick up speed or will center movement slow again when it is finished being "dragged"

[skysummit]

Who knows what a system in the Gulf of Mexico in August could do, even if it only has a few days.

look at what katrina did in the gulf in "a few days"

Katrina was also already a hurricane and passed over the loop current.

[Aric Dunn]

Too much talk about center relocation. This is the same center it always was. Today's location shows it was near the coast last night where we were saying it was.

The center is the center of that swirl at low level around 22.6N-90W

Tracking NW now. Still sheared off to the NE by the flow around the ULL.

I don't think it has relocated or reformed, but based on satellite cloud movement I do think it may have shifted slightly NE..closer to the deeper convection.

There is a huge area of high pressure to the north and northeast of the developing disturbance that should not let it move NW. In fact, I would not be surprised that after a WNW move during the next 12-24 hours, the system is moving just south of due west as it makes landfall.

Sanibel, I think what you are looking at is the last night's LLC that is becoming ill-defined right now. We are currently seeing an impressive MLC near 24.7N, 88.8W that is taking shape NE of that LLC that you see on visible. If that becomes the dominant feature (which is apparent based on the elongation of the LLC), it would be situated underneath very favorable upper-level conditions.

When Air Force Recon reaches this system this afternoon, I wouldn't be surprised if the only LLC they find is the one Sanibel and others are looking at. Based on that center, we could see classification. However, give it 12 more hours we could see a relocation toward the NE. Remember the relocation of Bill in 2003? I think we're going to see something similar with future Erin.

yeah relocation I think at this point after just looking at everything is inevitable which could mean some problem for someone should it do it fast

[jwayne]

Claudette II plus some is my bet is "dragging" of center finishes in the early afternoon. Not a good time to be fishing Port O'Conner!!

[Aric Dunn]

convection is the key
the more concentrated and deeper it is the faster that would occur

[mgpetre]

I'm pretty sure that calling this Erin is a bit premature since TD4 really doesn't have much going for today... this could just as easily become Dean for now, but again just semantics (although it could confuse people if it doesn't become Erin.) I also believe that the high pressure to the NE is showing some weakness based on a more northerly movement of the ULL over the past few days. I see a Corpus to Madagorda landfall as a distinct possibility. That is where I'm placing my bets for now. I'm not stating anything about intensity however, because it's just too hard to say based on the very short time frame... I just pray it doesn't do a rapid intensification when it's only 12 hrs or less from landfall... that could really catch some folks offguard.

Ideally of course it would just remain a TS and hit the panhandle of FL and help that area with some much needed heavy rains...

[RL3AO]

I'm pretty sure that calling this Erin is a bit premature since TD4 really doesn't have much going for today... this could just as easily become Dean for now, but again just semantics (although it could confuse people if it doesn't become Erin.) I also believe that the high pressure to the NE is showing some weakness based on a more northerly movement of the ULL over the past few days. I see a Corpus to Madagorda landfall as a distinct possibility. That is where I'm placing my bets for now. I'm not stating anything about intensity however, because it's just too hard to say based on the very short time frame... I just pray it doesn't do a rapid intensification when it's only 12 hrs or less from landfall... that could really catch some folks offguard.

Ideally of course it would just remain a TS and hit the panhandle of FL and help that area with some much needed heavy rains...

Um...TD4 just got upgraded to Dean.

[Aric Dunn]

I'm pretty sure that calling this Erin is a bit premature since TD4 really doesn't have much going for today... this could just as easily become Dean for now, but again just semantics (although it could confuse people if it doesn't become Erin.) I also believe that the high pressure to the NE is showing some weakness based on a more northerly movement of the ULL over the past few days. I see a Corpus to Madagorda landfall as a distinct possibility. That is where I'm placing my bets for now. I'm not stating anything about intensity however, because it's just too hard to say based on the very short time frame... I just pray it doesn't do a rapid intensification when it's only 12 hrs or less from landfall... that could really catch some folks offguard.

Ideally of course it would just remain a TS and hit the panhandle of FL and help that area with some much needed heavy rains...

ummm dean has formed in the atlantic

[cpdaman]

we already have dean

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z GFS weakens the high within 36 hours and changes the steering currents to aim more toward the NW. Could be bad news for the TX coast...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_036l.gif

[HouTXmetro]

12z GFS weakens the high within 36 hours and changes the steering currents to aim more toward the NW. Could be bad news for the TX coast...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_036l.gif

Shouldn't this baby have already made landfall in 36 hours?

[Sanibel]

Sanibel, I think what you are looking at is the last night's LLC that is becoming ill-defined right now.

Honestly, I don't understand the need to move this center somewhere else.

Again - The center is clearly exposed, as some have said, at those coordinates. It isn't eroding etc. It is simply sheared by the ULL. The mid-level center you speak of is simply the dispalced mid-level of this surface feature. I'd be very surprised if this shifted.

Keep watching.

[Tireman4]

Cdpaman,

You bet me to the punch. Whatever this system forms into, the rain chances for the Upper Texas Coast will increase as the week wears on.

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z GFS weakens the high within 36 hours and changes the steering currents to aim more toward the NW. Could be bad news for the TX coast...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_036l.gif

Shouldn't this baby have already made landfall in 36 hours?

That depends on speed. 36 hrs. will be Wednesday evening, so I would venture to guess that this is still just offshore at that time. If that is the case, do not be surprised to see a more NW bend toward the end of the track before landfall.

This run helps to further back up my belief that this will make landfall somewhere between Corpus and Matagorda Bay.

BTW: I just realized this change in steering patterns actually takes place earlier than 36 hours out. It seems to begin in about 24 to 30 hours: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_030l.gif

[mgpetre]

I'm pretty sure that calling this Erin is a bit premature since TD4 really doesn't have much going for today... this could just as easily become Dean for now, but again just semantics (although it could confuse people if it doesn't become Erin.) I also believe that the high pressure to the NE is showing some weakness based on a more northerly movement of the ULL over the past few days. I see a Corpus to Madagorda landfall as a distinct possibility. That is where I'm placing my bets for now. I'm not stating anything about intensity however, because it's just too hard to say based on the very short time frame... I just pray it doesn't do a rapid intensification when it's only 12 hrs or less from landfall... that could really catch some folks offguard.

Ideally of course it would just remain a TS and hit the panhandle of FL and help that area with some much needed heavy rains...

Ummm, I'm an idiot then... just not following it closely enough. I guess I just assumed because the satellite presentation on Dean was worse today that it wasn't going to be upgraded yet. My bad...

[HouTXmetro]

Sanibel, I think what you are looking at is the last night's LLC that is becoming ill-defined right now.

Honestly, I don't understand the need to move this center somewhere else.

Again - The center is clearly exposed, as some have said, at those coordinates. It isn't eroding etc. It is simply sheared by the ULL. The mid-level center you speak of is simply the dispalced mid-level of this surface feature. I'd be very surprised if this shifted.

Keep watching.

Consolidation is already happening.

[RL3AO]

a TS and hit the panhandle of FL and help that area with some much needed heavy rains...

Ummm, I'm an idiot then... just not following it closely enough. I guess I just assumed because the satellite presentation on Dean was worse today that it wasn't going to be upgraded yet. My bad...

Convection has blown up over the LLC.