CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[HUC]

The things are slowly,but surely in place for a hurricane to impact the east carribean...and i'am watching carefully this cyclone,as i do for each system in this location with the present track,in this time of the year..
Wait and see,and do prepared(my hurricane supplies are always ready ,because in 50 years i saw so much!!!!!)
Will keep you informed of the weather right there,if condition required...Can someone explain me carefully,because i'am not of english languge, how to send images(the Guadeloupe radar).....

[x-y-no]

Why is it that every few hours for the past few days we have just been posting GFS nonsens???

What about other model runs...like GFDL, NOGAPS, Canadian, and Euro????

We all know how wise it is to depend on just 1 model for guidance!

GFDL is run of the GFS. NHC weights the GFS heavier than other models, unless some really weird runin its forecast,they have said so.

Well here is what Derek Ortt (a respected and well-known meteorologist of ST2K) has to say about the GFS in a recent post:

"I do not use the GFS for forecasting hurricanes, so that run carries no weight for me

This kind of reminds me of what the models were doing with Ivan... they initially had Ivan missing the Caribbean when the synoptics guaranteed a Windward Islands hit. The Leewards are threatened by this one though... its not identical to the Ivan setup but does not appear all that dissimilar"

While I greatly respect Derek's judgement, that particular opinion is not shared by all hurricane forecasters. Read Lixon Avila's discussions, for instance (a forecaster whom Derek has expressed considerable respect for in the past.)

[Wx_Warrior]

Have some faith Ivanhater...This isn't the last run before it hits land!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

114 HR

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

[Fego]

Hispaniola can disrupt more than Puerto Rico, but that is useless for us.
Btw, since last saturday we have been telling our viewers that we would be in dangerous zone the next weekend. I wrote viewers because I work in a newstation as an anchor.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

114 500

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_114l.gif

[vacanechaser]

Meteorologists don't have to agree. He has a right to his opinion.

thats right.. and i for one, only listen to part of what he says, and many others here.. no one person is correct all the time.. just like the models..



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Weatherfreak000]

Appears this run might send the storm into the GOM like Ivan.


EC Strike to GOM entry? Big difference right? I'm still gonna wait for recon before I trust these runs.

[Ivanhater]

Watch out Jamaica in this run

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Are the runs taking into account the fast forward speed currently in play or are they assuming an immediate slow-down?

If the Ridge remains quite strong, at least in the short term, the forward speed of Dean will continue to be fast-paced, making Dean be further along than possibly shown in the runs right now. Getting there quicker may cause Dean's path to be affected much differently by the trough than currently depicted.

What say y'all concerning the speed of motion currently depicted in the model run? Does it seem accurate, too fast, too slow? Ramifications of your belief downstream?

[Wx_Warrior]

Until Recon goes out...I don't know what to believe or think!

[Ivanhater]

Until Recon goes out...I don't know what to believe or think!

Lol..just look for trends

[destruction92]

Until Recon goes out...I don't know what to believe or think!

Lol..just look for trends

there are no trends as of right now

[windstorm99]

Until Recon goes out...I don't know what to believe or think!

Lol..just look for trends

LOL....No trends here from the GFS its all over the place.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

132 HR

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132l.gif

[StormWarning1]

Are the runs taking into account the fast forward speed currently in play or are they assuming an immediate slow-down?

If the Ridge remains quite strong, at least in the short term, the forward speed of Dean will continue to be fast-paced, making Dean be further along than possibly shown in the runs right now. Getting there quicker may cause Dean's path to be affected much differently by the trough than currently depicted.

What say y'all concerning the speed of motion currently depicted in the model run? Does it seem accurate, too fast, too slow? Ramifications of your belief downstream?

Seems accurate to me, It has it slowing down around 55W. It may have the intensity a little to high at 55W also.

[Fego]

From NWS in Puerto Rico


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1156 AM AST TUE AUG 14 2007

.UPDATE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
FA. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WEST OF THE REGION...WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL
TERRAIN EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR STRENGTHENS THIS MORNING...AND IS NOW THE
TROPICAL STORM DEAN. AT 11 AM...DEAN WAS LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN
AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES...ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...NEAR
11.7 NORTH...39.4 WEST. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING THEN POSSIBLE AS IT CONTINUES TOWARDS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN EARLY SATURDAY AS A HURRICANE...AND ALL INTERESTS ACROSS
THE REGION SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE EVOLVING FORECASTS WITH THIS
TROPICAL SYSTEM.

&&

[Ivanhater]

Until Recon goes out...I don't know what to believe or think!

Lol..just look for trends

there are no trends as of right now

In the short term yes...just have to wait to see how strong the trough is

[HURRICANELONNY]

Make sure you have your flip flops on...

[KFDM Meteorologist]

132 500

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