CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Broad ridiging over FL and SE Gulf could keep it way south.

[windstorm99]

Looks like a texas run on the 12z...No trends here at all with the GFS as it had florida in one run and through the caribbean on this one.

Its been all over the place from the start.

[StormWarning1]

Broad ridiging over FL and SE Gulf could keep it way south.

Yep, stronger ridging and weaker EC trof on this run.

[Wx_Warrior]

138

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_138m.gif

[destruction92]

Looks GOM bound as of now.

One common misconception/assumption I see on this board is that if a storm enters the carribean, it is automatically a Gulf of Mexico storm. Come on! Nothing could be farther from the truth. Just look at this track (which shows a storm entering the Southern Caribbean past the Windward Islands and almost touching South America and then hitting eastern Cuba and out fishing in the Atlantic Ocean). http://weather.terrapin.com/wx/DisplayS ... dtype=JAVA

[Ivanhater]

Looks like a texas run on the 12z...No trends here at all with the GFS as it had florida in one run and through the caribbean on this one.

I doubt texas in this run...but that the fun of waiting

[KFDM Meteorologist]

138 500

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_138l.gif

[Wx_Warrior]

Look out Cuba

[Brent]

Looks to be headed NW across Eastern Cuba... Florida hit again???

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

[jasons2k]

Looks GOM bound as of now.

One common misconception/assumption I see on this board is that if a storm enters the carribean, it is automatically a Gulf of Mexico storm. Come on! Nothing could be farther from the truth. Just look at this track (which shows a storm entering the Southern Caribbean past the Windward Islands and almost touching South America and then hitting eastern Cuba and out fishing in the Atlantic Ocean). http://weather.terrapin.com/wx/DisplayS ... dtype=JAVA

It's called massive ridge and in this pattern it's quite possible

[Bgator]

Maybe the models will keep flip flopping like they do alot until we get some recon in there, or it gets closer to actual land.

[Wx_Warrior]

150

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_150m.gif

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif

150 HR

[Ivanhater]

Riding southern Cuba

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

That run doesn' teven let Hispaniola chew up Dean. It looks to pass nearly unscathed through the carribean. Not good for Cuba. But at this path, the storm could be slowly withered down to almost nothing if it has a long time over the cuban landscape, especially if it has to traverse the tallest mountains in the east.

[windstorm99]

Here it comes south florida.....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_150m.gif

[Sanibel]

Florida

[skysummit]

This run looks to be splitting the difference between the last 10.

[gtsmith]

Is it fair to call into question the accuracy of tracks from 1886? I would think so...

[KFDM Meteorologist]

150 500

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_150l.gif